Mueller Industries, Inc. MLI
Mueller Industries remains a pristine balance-sheet compounder—FY2025 revenue grew 10.87% to $4.18B with EPS up 28.95% to $3.43 and $687M free cash flow—but Q2 2026 results (as of the quarter ended 2026-06-30) exposed the core problem: net sales surged 25% to $1.43B while diluted EPS was flat at $1.13 versus $1.11, signaling that revenue growth is not converting to earnings leverage. At 16.4x P/E and 10.7x EV/EBITDA—37% and 22% below peer medians respectively—the earnings-based valuation looks cheap, but the 118% P/S premium to peers (3.04x vs 1.39x) prices in profitability that is now under pressure.
Persistent 24-month insider net selling of 944K shares worth $152.5M, a near-zero smart money score of 0.0161, and a bearish MACD histogram of -0.62 as of 2026-08-26 all temper enthusiasm. Hold until quarterly results demonstrate margin stabilization.
What could go wrong
- Margin compression persists. Q2 2026 sales grew 25% to $1.43B but operating income only rose to $310M from $304M, and EPS was flat at $1.13—suggesting cost pressures or mix shift eroding the profitability that supports the premium P/S multiple.
- Insider selling acceleration. Over 24 months insiders net sold 944K shares worth $152.5M; in August 2026 alone the CEO sold 340K shares at $68-69 per share while the CFO sold 86K shares, continuing a pattern despite the stock trading below recent highs.
- Valuation disconnect on P/S. At 3.04x P/S versus a peer median of 1.39x—a 118% premium—the market is pricing in superior margins that could compress if the Q2 trend continues.
- Technical deterioration. As of 2026-08-26, MACD histogram turned negative at -0.62 with the stock at $64.08, below the August insider sale prices of $67-69, suggesting weakening momentum.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP FY2025 annual + derived_metrics · FMP FY2025 annual + derived_metrics · Q2 2026 earnings release (Business Wire, 2026-07-21) · peer_relative. Orin's read on MLI; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All MLI filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Fmr | $677.8M | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $613.6M | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $610.8M | 0.0% of fund |
| Aqr Capital Management | $578.7M | 0.2% of fund |
| State Street | $437.3M | 0.0% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $387.2M | 0.0% of fund |
71 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 95 Form 4 filings, net −$138.8M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 18 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about MLI
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Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 15.4× | — | 44.5× |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.0× | — | — |
| P/S | 2.86× | — | — |
| P/B | 3.7× | — | — |
7.3%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.7B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$75
$75 – $75 · +24% against today's price
- 1 buy or overweight
- 5 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLIMueller Industries, Inc. | $13B | 15.4× | 10.0× | 27.3% | 18.2% | 27% |
| BLDRBuilders FirstSource, Inc. | $6B | 64.3× | 11.2× | 29.2% | 0.7% | 2% |
| HIIHuntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. | $11B | 16.1× | 12.2× | 12.6% | 5.0% | 13% |
| LECOLincoln Electric Holdings, Inc. | $14B | 26.3× | 17.3× | 36.0% | 12.4% | 37% |
| MASMasco Corporation | $13B | 15.7× | 11.0× | 36.9% | 11.6% | -406% |
| STRLSterling Infrastructure, Inc. | $16B | 36.5× | 21.7× | 23.6% | 12.5% | 37% |
| WCCWESCO International, Inc. | $18B | 25.0× | 14.9× | 21.4% | 2.8% | 14% |
The median is of the 6 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 39.7% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.