Martin Marietta Materials, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Martin Marietta remains a hold as Q2 2026 revenue growth of 7.5% YoY to $1.947B hints at stabilization after FY2025's 43% net income decline, but the just-completed $13.5B Lhoist combination adds substantial leverage and integration risk to a still-depressed earnings base.
The stock at $490.77 trades below both its 50-day ($527.33) and 200-day ($592.45) moving averages, and while the 11.8x P/E screens cheap at 58.6% below the peer median, Q1 2026's anomalous net income of $1.513B on just $1.362B of revenue inflates trailing earnings; the 4.31x P/S at 47.6% above peers better reflects the true valuation. Hold pending evidence of Lhoist synergy realization and sustained quarterly earnings recovery.
What could go wrong
- Lhoist integration and leverage. The $13.5B Lhoist North America combination closed August 21, 2026, adding significant debt and integration complexity to a company that already carried $5.323B in total debt at FY2025 year-end.
- Earnings quality distortion. FY2024's operating margin of 41.4% was anomalous versus FY2023's 23.6% and FY2025's 23.3%, and Q1 2026 net income of $1.513B exceeded its $1.362B revenue, indicating one-time gains that distort trailing multiples.
- Construction demand cyclicality. Revenue declined 3.6% in FY2024 before recovering only 0.12% in FY2025, exposing vulnerability to infrastructure and construction spending cycles.
- Technical deterioration. RSI at 40.33 with price below both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages signals persistent downtrend momentum as of September 28, 2026.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Q2 2026 results · FY25 fundamentals · GlobeNewsWire press release 24 Aug · technicals, 28 Sep. Orin's read on MLM; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 18.3% over twelve months, from $616.84 on 27 Oct 2025 to $503.69 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $708.11 on 10 Feb 2026; the last close is 28.9% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 1.4M, on 24 Sep 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All MLM filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $2.7B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $2.3B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.8B | 0.1% |
| State Street | $1.8B | 0.1% |
| Bank of America | $1.4B | 0.1% |
| FMR | $1.3B | 0.1% |
| T. Rowe Price Associates | $922.3M | 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $919.9M | 0.0% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $852.6M | 0.0% |
| Goldman Sachs Group | $670.9M | 0.1% |
100 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 68 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$637K. Of the 50 on hand, none was an open-market trade — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about MLM
Orin answers questions about MLM from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 13.9× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close) — lower than in all 5 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 26.4×); the typical Basic Materials company on the NYSE is at 22.4×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 13.9×below usual | 26.4× | 22.4× |
| P/S | 4.40×below usual | 4.85× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 21.2×above usual | 15.9× | — |
| P/B | 1.9×below usual | 3.7× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $618 (from $530 to $680) — 23% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$618
$530 – $680 · +23% against the last close
- 12 buy or overweight
- 4 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 13.9× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 4 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 19.6×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLMMartin Marietta Materials, Inc. | $32B | 13.9× | 21.2× | 26.7% | 31.9% | 18% |
| CRHCRH plc | $57B | 15.0× | 8.4× | 36.2% | 9.9% | 16% |
| EXPEagle Materials Inc. | $6B | 15.6× | 11.3× | 25.8% | 16.1% | 25% |
| USLMUnited States Lime & Minerals, Inc. | $3B | 23.5× | 14.2× | 48.5% | 35.7% | 21% |
| VMCVulcan Materials Company | $34B | 30.9× | 15.1× | 27.4% | 13.8% | 13% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 13.9× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now13.9×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Basic Materials companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 22.4× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now22.4×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $439 a share — 13% below the $502.96 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $439 | 13% below $502.96 |
| Levered | $337 | 33% below $502.96 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.