Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. MLM
Martin Marietta remains a hold following the August 21, 2026 completion of the $13.5B Lhoist North America combination, which strategically expands the lime and aggregates platform but introduces substantial integration and leverage risk on top of FY2025's 43% net income decline to $1.137B. The stock at $533.11 trades below both its 50-day ($567.41) and 200-day ($604.93) moving averages, smart money scores have deteriorated from +0.112 in September 2025 to -0.0554 as of June 2026, and the 13.1x P/E—while 59.6% below the peer median—reflects depressed FY2025 EPS of $18.80 rather than a clear bargain.
Hold pending evidence of clean Lhoist integration, synergy realization, and stabilization of the earnings decline.
What could go wrong
- Lhoist integration and leverage. The $13.5B Lhoist North America combination closed August 21, 2026; integration execution and added leverage on top of FY2025 total debt of $5.323B could pressure margins and free cash flow.
- Earnings deterioration. FY2025 net income fell 43% YoY to $1.137B with EPS of $18.80, while revenue growth was essentially flat at +0.12%; the prior year's $32.41 EPS was inflated by anomalous operating income of $2.707B that exceeded gross profit.
- Technical and sentiment weakness. Stock at $533.11 is below both the 50-day ($567.41) and 200-day ($604.93) moving averages with bearish MACD; smart money score deteriorated from +0.112 in September 2025 to -0.0554 as of June 2026.
- Valuation optical cheapness. The 13.1x P/E is 59.6% below the peer median of 32.5x, but EV/EBITDA of 18.2x is 15.3% above the peer median, suggesting the earnings multiple is depressed by cyclical lows rather than a genuine discount.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: GlobeNewsWire 2026-08-24; Zacks 2026-08-18 · FMP FY2025 annual; derived_metrics FY2025 · FMP FY2024 annual · Technicals as of 2026-08-24. Orin's read on MLM; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All MLM filings| Form | Filed | What it says | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8-K | 16 Sep | — | on file |
| 13D | 24 Aug | LNA Holding SRL, Kalk en Dolomiet Maatschappij SA, Financiere de Gestions Internationales SCA, and GPI SA collectively beneficially own 10,953,543 shares of Martin Marietta Materials Inc. | read |
| 8-K | 24 Aug | Martin Marietta completed its combination with Lhoist North America (LNA) on August 21, 2026, triggering Items 1.01, 2.01, 3.02, 5.02, 7.01, and 9.01. | read |
| 8-K | 18 Aug | Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. | read |
| 8-K | 14 Aug | Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. | read |
| 8-K | 12 Aug | Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. | read |
| 8-K | 10 Aug | Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. | read |
| 13G | 7 Aug | — | on file |
Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $2.3B | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.8B | 0.1% of fund |
| State Street | $1.8B | 0.1% of fund |
| Bank Of America /De/ | $1.4B | 0.1% of fund |
| Fmr | $1.3B | 0.1% of fund |
| Price T Rowe Associates /Md/ | $922.3M | 0.1% of fund |
97 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 68 Form 4 filings, net −$8.1M. Of the 50 on hand, none was an open-market trade— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about MLM
Orin answers questions about MLM from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 12.0× | 26.4× | 29.8× |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.9× | 15.8× | — |
| P/S | 4.40× | 4.85× | — |
| P/B | 2.6× | 3.7× | — |
Its P/E sits below all 5 of the last 5 years (−1.99σ from its own mean).
13.3%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $1.0B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$646
$556 – $730 · +32% against today's price
- 25 buy or overweight
- 15 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLMMartin Marietta Materials, Inc. | $29B | 12.0× | 16.9× | 28.2% | 36.8% | 23% |
| CTVACorteva, Inc. | $54B | 53.3× | 17.4× | 48.5% | 5.7% | 4% |
| NUENucor Corporation | $56B | 19.7× | 10.8× | 15.5% | 8.0% | 14% |
| VMCVulcan Materials Company | $32B | 28.8× | 14.2× | 27.4% | 13.8% | 13% |
The median is of the 3 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 58.2% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $480 | $556.89 · −14% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $372 | $556.89 · −33% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.