Monster Beverage Corporation
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Monster Beverage's fundamentals are accelerating — Q1 2026 revenue grew 26.9% YoY and Q2 2026 grew 20.2% YoY, well above FY2025's 10.7% full-year growth, with gross margin expanding to 55.9% and zero total debt supporting $1.97B in free cash flow.
However, the stock trades at 40.0x trailing PE (25% above the peer median of 31.9x) and 28.7x EV/EBITDA (82% above the peer median of 15.8x), pricing in much of this momentum with limited margin of safety. At $43.64 the stock sits below its 50-day MA of $45.01 but above the 200-day MA of $42.54, with neutral RSI of 49.1 and persistent net insider selling of 351K shares ($25.6M) over 24 months — the strong operating story is not yet translating into sustained price leadership.
What could go wrong
- Valuation compression. At 40.0x PE and 28.7x EV/EBITDA, MNST trades at a substantial premium to peers (median PE 31.9x, median EV/EBITDA 15.8x); any deceleration in revenue growth could trigger multiple contraction.
- Regulatory headwinds. Monster and PepsiCo are suing India's food regulator over an 'energy drink' label ban, highlighting regulatory risk in a key growth market expected to be worth $1.6B by 2028.
- Insider selling persistence. Net insider dispositions of 351,277 shares ($25.6M) over 24 months with zero open-market acquisitions signal limited insider conviction at current levels.
- Smart money outflows. Smart money score of -0.01 as of the quarter ended 30 Jun with fund count declining from 68 to 66 quarter-over-quarter suggests institutional positioning is slightly negative.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Q1–Q2 FY26 results · FY25 fundamentals · peer comparison · insider trades. Orin's read on MNST; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 30.4% over twelve months, from $34.84 on 27 Oct 2025 to $45.44 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $49.97 on 16 Jul 2026; the last close is 9.1% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 43.0M, on 17 Jul 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All MNST filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $5.8B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $4.4B | 0.1% |
| State Street | $3.5B | 0.1% |
| Invesco | $3.1B | 0.2% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $2.9B | 0.2% |
| Geode Capital Management | $2.0B | 0.1% |
| AllianceBernstein | $2.0B | 0.6% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.4B | 0.1% |
| Bank of America | $1.2B | 0.1% |
| Morgan Stanley | $1.2B | 0.1% |
108 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 199 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$25.6M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 1 a sale — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about MNST
Orin answers questions about MNST from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 43.1× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close) — higher than in 4 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 36.9×); the typical Consumer Defensive company on the NASDAQ is at 37.9×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 43.1×above usual | 36.9× | 37.9× |
| P/S | 9.78×above usual | 8.47× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 31.6×above usual | 27.1× | — |
| P/B | 9.5×above usual | 7.7× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
- A share split on 11 Aug changed the share count; figures from before it may not all be restated yet.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $84.68 (from $50 to $104) — 86% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$84.68
$50 – $104 · +86% against the last close
- 10 buy or overweight
- 8 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 43.1× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 3 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 26.8×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MNSTMonster Beverage Corporation | $94B | 43.1× | 31.6× | 55.3% | 22.7% | 24% |
| KDPKeurig Dr Pepper Inc. | $47B | 35.1× | 20.0× | 49.4% | 7.1% | 6% |
| KOThe Coca-Cola Company | $392B | 26.8× | 20.6× | 62.3% | 28.7% | 42% |
| PEPPepsiCo, Inc. | $182B | 16.8× | 11.6× | 54.2% | 11.1% | 51% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 43.1× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now43.1×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Consumer Defensive companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 37.9× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now37.9×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $31 a share — 32% below the $45.67 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $31 | 32% below $45.67 |
| Levered | $50 | 9% above $45.67 |
- A share split on 11 Aug changed the share count; figures from before it may not all be restated yet.
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.