Moog Inc. MOG-A
Moog's fundamentals are accelerating meaningfully—Q3 FY2026 sales hit a record $1.1B (up 15% YoY), the 12-month backlog grew 23%, and the company raised full-year guidance—yet the stock at $445.38 trades at 37.4x trailing earnings, a 73% premium to the peer median of 21.6x, and 24.8x EV/EBITDA versus a peer median of 13.4x. With the price sitting 41% above its 200-day moving average of $316.16 and RSI at 65.3, much of the operational improvement appears already discounted.
Hold; the backlog-driven visibility and FCF inflection are real, but the valuation premium and extended technicals leave minimal margin of safety.
What could go wrong
- Valuation compression. At 37.4x earnings (73% above peer median 21.6x) and 24.8x EV/EBITDA (84% above peer median 13.4x), any deceleration in growth or guidance miss could trigger a sharp de-rating.
- Technical overextension. Stock trades at $445.38, roughly 41% above its 200-day MA of $316.16 and 10% above the 50-day MA of $406.67, with RSI at 65.3—leaving it vulnerable to a pullback on any negative catalyst.
- Margin sustainability. FY2025 gross margin of 27.4% is below FY2024's 27.6%, and operating margin of 10.6% is slightly below FY2024's 10.8%, suggesting cost pressures could offset revenue gains.
- Debt and capex burden. Total debt of $945.7M against equity of $1.99B at FY2025 year-end, with capex of $144.7M, could constrain FCF if growth investments intensify.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: MarketBeat news 2026-07-31; Business Wire 2026-07-31 · Technicals as of 2026-08-17 · Peer relative composite · FMP FY2025 fundamentals and derived_metrics. Orin's read on MOG-A; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All MOG-A filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Earnest Partners | $742.6M | 2.7% of fund |
| State Street | $666.4M | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $660.1M | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $543.2M | 0.0% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $363.5M | 0.0% of fund |
| Bank Of America /De/ | $354.7M | 0.0% of fund |
74 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Ask Orin about MOG-A
Orin answers questions about MOG-A from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 31.5× | — | 44.5× |
| EV/EBITDA | 21.1× | — | — |
| P/S | 2.75× | — | — |
| P/B | 5.3× | — | — |
28.8%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.1B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$131
$131 – $131 · −65% against today's price
- 5 buy or overweight
- 5 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MOG-AMoog Inc. | $12B | 31.5× | 21.1× | 27.9% | 8.7% | 18% |
| ADTADT Inc. | $5B | 8.2× | 4.6× | 51.4% | 12.0% | 17% |
| FLSFlowserve Corporation | $10B | 26.8× | 15.7× | 35.1% | 8.0% | 17% |
| FSSFederal Signal Corporation | $7B | 24.1× | 15.2× | 29.2% | 11.7% | 20% |
| GTESGates Industrial Corporation plc | $7B | 18.4× | 11.4× | 40.5% | 10.4% | 11% |
| MIDDThe Middleby Corporation | $5B | — | — | 38.0% | -13.2% | -18% |
| MSAMSA Safety Incorporated | $7B | 22.7× | 14.4× | 47.6% | 16.1% | 23% |
| PRIMPrimoris Services Corporation | $4B | 28.7× | 16.0× | 8.6% | 1.9% | 8% |
| RALRalliant Corp | $8B | — | — | 48.9% | -56.4% | -61% |
The median is of the 6 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 34.5% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.