Moog Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Moog's operational execution is exceptional—Q3 FY2026 revenue hit a record $1.12B (up 14.9% YoY), the 12-month backlog grew 23%, guidance was raised, and the company has beaten EPS estimates in each of the last four quarters by double-digit margins—but the stock at $363.09 still trades at 30.5x trailing earnings, a 48.5% premium to the peer median of 20.5x, and 20.3x EV/EBITDA versus a peer median of 12.9x.
The recent pullback from ~$388 to $363 has brought RSI to 40.7 and pushed the stock below its 50-day MA ($385.71), but it remains above the 200-day MA ($345.66) and the MACD histogram is still negative at -1.23, suggesting near-term momentum has not yet turned. The backlog-driven revenue visibility and margin expansion are genuine, but the persistent valuation gap and slightly negative smart-money score (-0.05 as of Q2 2026 13Fs) argue for patience rather than new initiation at current levels.
What could go wrong
- Valuation compression. At 30.5x PE and 20.3x EV/EBITDA—48.5% and 58% above peer medians respectively—any deceleration in growth or margin pressure could trigger a sharp multiple contraction.
- Defense budget uncertainty. Moog's Space and Defense Controls segment is sensitive to US defense spending priorities; any shift in procurement or budget allocations could slow backlog conversion.
- Free cash flow durability. FY2025 FCF margin was only 3.3% despite revenue of $3.86B; capex of $144.7M consumed a significant share of operating cash flow ($273.1M), limiting financial flexibility given $945.7M in total debt.
- Technical deterioration. Stock is trading below its 50-day MA ($385.71) with a negative MACD histogram (-1.23); a break below the 200-day MA ($345.66) could signal a deeper correction.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Q3 FY26 results · news, 31 Jul · peer comparison · technicals, 9 Oct. Orin's read on MOG-A; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 67.1% over twelve months, from $211.58 on 27 Oct 2025 to $353.51 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $445.38 on 17 Aug 2026; the last close is 20.6% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 5.1M, on 20 Mar 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All MOG-A filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $1.8B | 0.0% |
| Earnest Partners | $742.6M | 2.7% |
| State Street | $666.4M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $660.1M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $543.2M | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $363.5M | 0.0% |
| Bank of America | $354.7M | 0.0% |
| T. Rowe Price Associates | $328.1M | 0.0% |
| Goldman Sachs Group | $248.0M | 0.0% |
| Capital World Investors | $174.1M | 0.0% |
77 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Ask Orin about MOG-A
Orin answers questions about MOG-A from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 29.7× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 4 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 21.0×); the typical Industrials company on the NYSE is at 33.7×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 29.7×above usual | 21.0× | 33.7× |
| P/S | 2.59×above usual | 1.08× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.8×above usual | 11.9× | — |
| P/B | 5.0×above usual | 2.2× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
Few analysts publish on it: 3 firms rated it in the last 18 months. Every 12-month price target on file is $448 (the low and the high are the same, so it may be a single analyst's) — 27% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. With so few, it is not a consensus; it is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$448
$448 – $448 · +27% against the last close
- 3 buy or overweight
- 0 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 29.7× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 6 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 32.9×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MOG-AMoog Inc. | $11B | 29.7× | 19.8× | 27.9% | 8.7% | 18% |
| ATROAstronics Corporation | $2B | 29.8× | 21.8× | 32.5% | 8.4% | 52% |
| CRCrane Company | $11B | 32.9× | 20.9× | 30.1% | 12.4% | 16% |
| ESEESCO Technologies Inc. | $6B | 19.6× | 20.4× | 42.0% | 24.4% | 20% |
| HWMHowmet Aerospace Inc. | $77B | 41.1× | 29.2× | 35.2% | 20.5% | 34% |
| MRCYMercury Systems, Inc. | $5B | lost money | 66.6× | 26.7% | −3.0% | −2% |
| TDGTransDigm Group Incorporated | $62B | 34.3× | 18.4× | 59.6% | 21.3% | n/m |
| WWDWoodward, Inc. | $18B | 32.9× | 22.0× | 29.5% | 13.2% | 22% |
- MRCY: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- TDG: return on equity is not meaningful (n/m) — book value is below zero.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 29.7× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now29.7×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Industrials companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 33.7× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now33.7×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $10 a share — 97% below the $352.44 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $10 | 97% below $352.44 |
| Levered | $29 | 92% below $352.44 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.