The Mosaic Company
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Mosaic's fundamentals continue to deteriorate with consecutive operating losses in Q1 and Q2 2026 (-$372.9M and -$35.5M respectively) and FY2025 free cash flow of -$534.6M alongside rising total debt to $5.28B, but the stock has already fallen sharply to $18.74 with an RSI of 23.09, suggesting much of the bad news is priced in.
The P/S of 0.50x trades at a 63% discount to the peer median while the 93.7x trailing P/E reflects severely compressed earnings rather than a structural valuation problem. With the Belarus potash supply overhang and no clear earnings inflection yet visible, the risk/reward is balanced enough to warrant a hold pending evidence of margin stabilization or further deterioration.
What could go wrong
- Prolonged potash price weakness. A U.S.-Belarus potash purchase deal could add supply pressure and keep potash prices depressed, extending operating losses beyond Q2 2026's -$35.5M result.
- Balance sheet deterioration. Total debt rose to $5.28B in FY2025 from $4.45B in FY2024 while FCF was -$534.6M; continued cash burn could constrain financial flexibility.
- Earnings estimate misses persist. Q1 2026 actual EPS of $0.22 missed estimates of $0.48 by 54%, and Q2 2026 actual EPS of $0.05 missed estimates of $0.24 by 80%, indicating analysts remain too optimistic.
- Technical breakdown accelerates. Stock at $18.74 is well below both the 50-day MA of $23.31 and 200-day MA of $24.40 with a bearish MACD histogram of -0.47; a break below recent lows could trigger further selling.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: quarterly results · fundamentals · technicals, 9 Oct · peer comparison. Orin's read on MOS; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 36.4% over twelve months, from $29.56 on 27 Oct 2025 to $18.79 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $31.36 on 12 Mar 2026; the last close is 40.1% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 28.2M, on 12 Mar 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All MOS filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $524.5M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $439.6M | 0.0% |
| AQR Capital Management | $387.6M | 0.1% |
| State Street | $318.7M | 0.0% |
| Invesco | $315.8M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $312.8M | 0.0% |
| FMR | $279.7M | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $188.7M | 0.0% |
| Millennium Management | $139.7M | 0.1% |
| Morgan Stanley | $109.2M | 0.0% |
81 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 52 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$6.8M. Of the 50 on hand, 1 was an open-market purchase and 2 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about MOS
Orin answers questions about MOS from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 94.0× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close); the typical Basic Materials company on the NYSE is at 22.4×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 94.0× | — | 22.4× |
| P/S | 0.50×below usual | 0.81× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.7×near usual | 5.7× | — |
| P/B | 0.5×below usual | 1.0× | — |
- P/E: no usual level — it ran from 4.3× to 44.7× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $24.90 (from $19 to $31) — 33% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$24.90
$19 – $31 · +33% against the last close
- 4 buy or overweight
- 8 hold
- 2 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 94.0× its last 12 months of profit. Only 1 of the 2 companies it is compared to have a P/E that says something (CF 8.3×), so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MOSThe Mosaic Company | $6B | 94.0× | 5.7× | 11.5% | 0.4% | 0% |
| CFCF Industries Holdings, Inc. | $18B | 8.3× | 4.3× | 42.6% | 27.5% | 40% |
| CTVACorteva, Inc. | $8B | n/m | n/m | 48.5% | 5.7% | 4% |
- CTVA: P/E, EV/EBITDA and dividend yield are not meaningful (n/m) — it spun off part of its business recently, so its last 12 months of results still include the part it no longer owns.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 94.0× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now94.0×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Basic Materials companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 22.4× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now22.4×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $31 a share — 68% above the $18.55 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $31 | 68% above $18.55 |
| Levered | $23 | 26% above $18.55 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.