The Mosaic Company MOS
Mosaic remains a cyclical name in a tough phosphate market, with FY2025 revenue recovering to $12.05B (up 8.36% YoY) and operating income nearly doubling to $1.05B from $621.5M in FY2024, but FY2025 free cash flow was deeply negative at -$534.6M and total debt climbed to $5.28B from $4.45B. The stock trades at 0.59x sales — a 38.6% discount to the peer median — yet carries a 111.15x trailing P/E against a peer median of 10.48x, reflecting earnings still near a cyclical trough.
With the CEO citing unusually high sulfur prices and constrained supply in the Q2 2026 call, and the price at $22.23 sitting just above its 50-day MA ($22.06) but below its 200-day MA ($24.61), the technical and fundamental picture is mixed enough to warrant patience until FCF turns positive and debt stabilizes.
What could go wrong
- Negative free cash flow persistence. FY2025 FCF was -$534.6M with capex of $1.36B against operating cash flow of $824.8M; if capex remains elevated and phosphate prices stay weak, FCF could stay negative into FY2026.
- Rising leverage. Total debt increased to $5.28B in FY2025 from $4.45B in FY2024 and $3.99B in FY2023; the August 2026 debt tender offers suggest active liability management but also signal refinancing pressure.
- Compressed margins vs. cycle peak. FY2025 gross margin of 15.08% and operating margin of 8.71% remain far below FY2022 peaks of 30.1% and 25.02%, and the CEO flagged high sulfur costs and constrained supply as ongoing headwinds.
- Extreme P/E distortion. At 111.15x trailing P/E versus a peer median of 10.48x, any further earnings disappointment could amplify downside if the market re-rates the cyclical trough lower.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP fundamentals FY2025 & derived_metrics · FMP fundamentals FY2025 · FMP fundamentals FY2025 & FY2024 · peer_relative as of 2026-08-19. Orin's read on MOS; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All MOS filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $439.6M | 0.0% of fund |
| Aqr Capital Management | $387.6M | 0.1% of fund |
| State Street | $318.7M | 0.0% of fund |
| Invesco | $315.8M | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $312.8M | 0.0% of fund |
| Fmr | $279.7M | 0.0% of fund |
79 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 51 Form 4 filings, net −$7.0M. Of the 50 on hand, 1 was an open-market purchase and 2 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about MOS
Orin answers questions about MOS from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 118.5× | 10.2× | 29.8× |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.7× | 5.7× | — |
| P/S | 0.63× | 0.81× | — |
| P/B | 0.7× | 1.0× | — |
Its P/E sits above all 5 of the last 5 years (+7.01σ from its own mean).
What Wall Street published
$26
$22 – $31 · +15% against today's price
- 15 buy or overweight
- 26 hold
- 8 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MOSThe Mosaic Company | $8B | 118.5× | 7.7× | 11.5% | 0.4% | 0% |
| AAAlcoa Corporation | $11B | 8.7× | 6.1× | 18.8% | 9.4% | 19% |
| EMNEastman Chemical Company | $8B | 17.1× | 9.5× | 19.9% | 5.0% | 7% |
| WLKWestlake Corporation | $9B | — | — | 4.7% | -10.9% | -14% |
The median is of the 2 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 819.3% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $36 | $20.63 · +73% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $26 | $20.63 · +28% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.