Marathon Petroleum Corporation MPC
Marathon Petroleum's refining-margin tailwind is real — record diesel prices, curtailed Russian refined exports, and a strong Q2 print have driven the stock 51% higher to $360.75, with RSI at 72.7 signaling overbought conditions. The valuation discount to peers (P/E of 12.6 vs. peer median 14.5; EV/EBITDA of 7.6 vs. 8.9) is consistent with MPC's historical cyclical discount, not a mispricing, and insiders have been net sellers of $12.3M over 24 months including August sales at $350.
With total debt at $34.4B against equity of $17.3B and FCF declining from $12.2B in 2023 to $4.8B in 2025, the balance sheet and cash-generation trajectory temper enthusiasm at current elevated levels.
What could go wrong
- Cyclical margin reversal. MPC's EPS swung from $28.12 in 2022 to $10.09 in 2024; a similar crack-spread normalization could rapidly compress earnings from current elevated levels.
- Overextended technicals. At $360.75 the stock trades well above its 50-day MA of $293.57 and 200-day MA of $231.07, with RSI at 72.7, increasing vulnerability to a pullback.
- Leverage and declining FCF. Total debt of $34.4B against equity of $17.3B, with FCF falling from $12.2B (2023) to $4.8B (2025), limits financial flexibility if margins compress.
- Insider selling acceleration. Net insider dispositions of $12.3M over 24 months, with multiple executives selling in August 2026 at $341–$350 per share, signal limited conviction at current prices.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Technicals as of 2026-08-19 · Peer relative comparison · Fundamentals FY2025 (period ended 2025-12-31) · Fundamentals FY2022 and FY2024. Orin's read on MPC; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All MPC filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $4.9B | 0.1% of fund |
| State Street | $4.7B | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $4.0B | 0.2% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $2.1B | 0.1% of fund |
| Morgan Stanley | $1.5B | 0.1% of fund |
| Fmr | $1.4B | 0.1% of fund |
122 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 90 Form 4 filings, net −$15.0M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 14 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about MPC
Orin answers questions about MPC from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 13.4× | 6.2× | 51.1× |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.0× | 6.9× | — |
| P/S | 0.74× | 0.34× | — |
| P/B | 5.9× | 2.5× | — |
Its P/E sits 80th percentile of its own last 5 years (+1.28σ from its own mean).
10.1%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $4.8B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$405
$304 – $472 · +3% against today's price
- 25 buy or overweight
- 8 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MPCMarathon Petroleum Corporation | $113B | 13.4× | 8.0× | 11.6% | 5.6% | 49% |
| EOGEOG Resources, Inc. | $76B | 11.0× | 5.6× | 70.2% | 25.7% | 22% |
| KMIKinder Morgan, Inc. | $70B | 20.1× | 12.6× | 54.9% | 19.3% | 11% |
| PSXPhillips 66 | $103B | 14.5× | 9.3× | 9.8% | 4.6% | 24% |
| SLBSLB N.V. | $77B | 24.9× | 12.2× | 16.5% | 8.5% | 12% |
| VLOValero Energy Corporation | $108B | 15.6× | 8.4× | 11.3% | 5.4% | 30% |
The median is of the 5 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 14.2% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $507 | $269.05 · +89% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $455 | $269.05 · +69% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.