M-tron Industries, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
MPTI's revenue growth remains intact at 11% for FY2025 and 13.8% in Q2 2026, but margin compression and the Q2 2026 EPS miss of $0.43 versus $0.53 consensus (-18.9%) suggest top-line gains aren't converting to per-share earnings — FY2025 EPS of $2.62 already slipped from $2.65 the prior year.
The balance sheet is clean ($217K total debt, $63.2M stockholders' equity as of FY2025) and BlackRock's reported 5.9% stake provides institutional support, but with the stock at $67.75 trading below both its 50-day ($76.33) and 200-day ($74.78) moving averages and insiders net selling 81,685 shares over the trailing 24 months, the setup is balanced at best until the next print confirms margin stabilization.
What could go wrong
- Margin compression. Gross margin fell from 46.2% in FY2024 to 44.4% in FY2025, and Q2 2026 quarterly gross margin shows further pressure, eroding the EPS lever despite double-digit revenue growth.
- Persistent insider selling. Over the trailing 24 months insiders net disposed of 81,685 shares valued at approximately $4.76M, with the EVP Finance most recently selling 1,218 shares at $85.05 in August 2026.
- Technical breakdown. Stock at $67.75 trades below both the 50-day ($76.33) and 200-day ($74.78) moving averages with RSI at 34.4 and MACD histogram negative at -0.53, suggesting weakening momentum.
- EPS erosion despite revenue growth. FY2025 EPS of $2.62 declined 1.1% YoY from $2.65 even as revenue grew 11%, and the Q2 2026 miss follows a pattern of inconsistent earnings execution.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FY25 fundamentals · Q2 2026 results and earnings vs estimates · technicals, 20 Oct · insider trades. Orin's read on MPTI; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 27.9% over twelve months, from $53.90 on 27 Oct 2025 to $68.95 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $100.75 on 1 Jul 2026; the last close is 31.6% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 545k, on 29 Jul 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All MPTI filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $25.1M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $17.2M | 0.0% |
| Two Sigma Investments | $13.1M | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $10.0M | 0.0% |
| State Street | $8.2M | 0.0% |
| D. E. Shaw | $4.8M | 0.0% |
| Northern Trust | $3.9M | 0.0% |
| Potrero Capital Research | $3.8M | 2.1% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $3.1M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Fiduciary Trust | $2.7M | 0.0% |
32 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 78 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$4.7M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 14 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about MPTI
Orin answers questions about MPTI from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 23.5× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close); the typical Technology company on the AMEX is at 14.5×. It has too few years of its own for a usual level.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 23.5× | — | 14.5× |
| P/S | 5.15× | — | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.3× | — | — |
| P/B | 2.4× | — | — |
- Listed on 3 Oct 2022 — earlier years are not shown.
- So it has no full fiscal year of its own on file yet — no usual level.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 23.5× its last 12 months of profit. Only 1 of the 1 companies it is compared to made a profit (FEIM 283×), so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MPTIM-tron Industries, Inc. | $300M | 23.5× | 15.3× | 44.3% | 16.3% | 13% |
| FEIMFrequency Electronics, Inc. | $797M | 283× | 297× | 33.0% | 3.7% | 4% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 23.5× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now23.5×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Technology companies on the AMEX were priced at a typical 14.5× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now14.5×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $103 a share — 50% above the $68.66 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $103 | 50% above $68.66 |
| Levered | $113 | 65% above $68.66 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.