Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. MPWR
Monolithic Power's AI-driven revenue growth is genuine—FY2025 revenue reached $2.79B with 26.43% YoY growth and operating income climbed to $728.6M from $539.4M—but the stock trades at 79.28x trailing P/E, a 118.4% premium to the peer median of 36.30x, pricing in years of flawless execution. The FY2025 EPS of $12.75 looks weak only because FY2024's $1.787B net income (80.95% net margin) was inflated by a one-time item; operating margin actually expanded from 24.44% to 26.11%.
With the stock at $1,300.14 (as of 2026-08-19), below the 50-day MA of $1,387.17 but above the 200-day MA of $1,231.93, and $990.7M in net insider selling over 24 months, the risk/reward remains balanced but not compelling enough to upgrade from hold.
What could go wrong
- Extreme valuation premium. At 79.28x P/E and 19.52x P/S, MPWR trades at a 118.4% premium to the peer median P/E of 36.30x and 191.8% premium on P/S of 6.69x. Any growth disappointment could trigger a sharp de-rating.
- Persistent insider selling. Over the past 24 months, insiders executed 340 dispositions versus 25 acquisitions, with net selling value of $990.7M. Recent sales by the Interim CFO and EVP of WW Sales & Marketing continue this pattern, and a fiduciary duty investigation was announced on 2026-08-17.
- Gross margin compression. Gross margin has declined from 58.44% in FY2022 to 55.18% in FY2025, a gradual but consistent erosion that could accelerate if AI/server mix shifts or pricing pressure emerges.
- One-time item distorts comparisons. FY2024 net income of $1.787B (80.95% net margin) was clearly anomalous versus FY2023's $427M (23.47% margin), making YoY growth metrics unreliable and clouding the fundamental trajectory.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP fundamentals FY2025 + derived_metrics · FMP fundamentals FY2024–FY2025 + derived_metrics · peer_relative (as of latest data) · insider summary (24-month window). Orin's read on MPWR; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All MPWR filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Brasada Capital Management | $8.9B | 1.6% of fund |
| Fmr | $7.2B | 0.3% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $4.3B | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $3.5B | 0.2% of fund |
| Invesco | $3.2B | 0.3% of fund |
| State Street | $3.2B | 0.1% of fund |
112 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 371 Form 4 filings, net −$990.8M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 43 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about MPWR
Orin answers questions about MPWR from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 81.4× | 70.3× | 53.3× |
| EV/EBITDA | 63.9× | 52.0× | — |
| P/S | 20.05× | 15.60× | — |
| P/B | 16.8× | 12.3× | — |
Its P/E sits 80th percentile of its own last 5 years (+0.87σ from its own mean).
29.7%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.7B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$1827
$1500 – $2100 · +34% against today's price
- 22 buy or overweight
- 3 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MPWRMonolithic Power Systems, Inc. | $66B | 81.4× | 63.9× | 55.2% | 24.4% | 22% |
| ASXASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd. | $96B | 50.3× | 21.3× | 19.5% | 8.5% | 17% |
| EAElectronic Arts Inc. | $53B | 48.4× | 29.8× | 79.9% | 13.8% | 17% |
| GRMNGarmin Ltd. | $57B | 30.2× | 22.7× | 60.1% | 24.5% | 21% |
| NXPINXP Semiconductors N.V. | $58B | 19.5× | 13.4× | 55.9% | 22.6% | 28% |
| STXSeagate Technology Holdings plc | $203B | 62.3× | 48.3× | 45.6% | 26.1% | 348% |
| TTWOTake-Two Interactive Software, Inc. | $38B | — | 40.1× | 56.0% | -4.8% | -9% |
| WDCWestern Digital Corporation | $155B | 16.6× | 17.8× | 48.9% | 72.9% | 119% |
| XYZBlock, Inc. | $46B | 134.6× | 38.4× | 46.4% | 1.4% | 2% |
The median is of the 7 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 68.2% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $244 | $1481.30 · −84% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $391 | $1481.30 · −74% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.