Moderna, Inc. MRNA
The FDA approval of mFlusiva on August 6, 2026 gives Moderna its first non-COVID commercial product, and the stock's technicals have improved meaningfully since the prior sell call—last close $64.46 sits above both the 50-day MA ($61.06) and 200-day MA ($46.67), with a bullish MACD histogram of +1.02. However, FY2025 fundamentals remain deeply impaired: revenue fell 39.2% YoY to $1.944B against a $2.822B net loss and $2.065B FCF burn, and at a P/S of 11.48 the stock trades at a 23% premium to profitable peer TECH (9.33) despite massive losses.
The flu vaccine approval is a genuine catalyst but is insufficient to justify the valuation given ongoing cash destruction, making this a hold pending evidence of commercial traction and cash burn moderation.
What could go wrong
- Cash burn trajectory. FY2025 free cash flow burn of $2.065B against stockholders' equity of $8.65B (down from $10.9B in FY2024) and rising total debt of $1.916B raises runway concerns if revenue does not recover.
- Competitive flu vaccine market. mFlusiva enters a crowded seasonal flu vaccine market for adults 50+; commercial uptake and pricing power are unproven.
- Pipeline setbacks. The prior norovirus Phase III miss illustrates binary clinical risk; additional late-stage failures in oncology or rare disease programs would remove remaining pipeline optionality.
- Insider selling pressure. Over 24 months, insider net value is -$16.6M across 241 transactions; CEO Bancel exercised options at $19.15 and sold shares at $56–58 in August 2026, signaling limited insider conviction at current levels.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: news articles published 2026-08-06 (Benzinga, Barrons, Fast Company) · FMP fundamentals FY2025; derived_metrics revenue_growth_yoy -0.3923 · FMP fundamentals FY2025 · peer_relative composite. Orin's read on MRNA; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All MRNA filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Fmr | $3.6B | 0.2% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.6B | 0.0% of fund |
| Capital World Investors | $1.6B | 0.2% of fund |
| State Street | $1.1B | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.1B | 0.0% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $678.8M | 0.0% of fund |
82 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 287 Form 4 filings, net −$36.5M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 5 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about MRNA
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Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/S | 32.43× | 5.55× | — |
| P/B | 10.7× | 2.7× | — |
Its P/E sits below all 5 of the last 5 years (−3.28σ from its own mean).
What Wall Street published
$116
$25 – $245 · −36% against today's price
- 8 buy or overweight
- 16 hold
- 5 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MRNAModerna, Inc. | $72B | — | — | -12.6% | -141.4% | -39% |
| TECHBio-Techne Corporation | $11B | 62.0× | 33.1× | 65.8% | 15.0% | 9% |
The median is of the 1 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $-2 | $46.32 · −104% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $-3 | $46.32 · −107% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.