Moderna, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Moderna has extended its 2026 melt-up to $225 as of 9 Oct, now trading at 40.1x sales versus a profitable peer median of 9.3x — a 329% premium — despite FY2025 revenue collapsing 39.2% to $1.944B with a $2.822B net loss and $2.065B FCF burn.
Q2 2026 revenue of just $145M (up only 2.1% YoY) confirms no near-term commercial inflection, while insiders including the President and CFO continue selling into strength with a 24-month net disposition value of -$63.8M across 976,699 shares. The expanded Tempus/Moderna/Merck cancer-vaccine collaboration and Nasdaq-100 inclusion are fueling speculative momentum with RSI at 72, but the market is pricing years of unproven oncology outcomes into a money-losing company whose stockholders' equity has declined from $10.9B to $8.7B over two years.
What could go wrong
- Pipeline breakthrough re-rating. Positive Phase 3 data for intismeran autogene (individualized neoantigen therapy with Merck) or other pipeline assets could justify a higher valuation floor and sustain momentum despite weak current fundamentals.
- Index-driven buying pressure. Nasdaq-100 inclusion following a 566% stock surge creates passive index-fund demand that can sustain elevated prices independent of fundamentals.
- Cash runway longer than expected. Stockholders' equity of $8.65B as of FY2025 provides a multi-year cash cushion that could allow the company to reach pivotal pipeline readouts before facing a liquidity crisis.
- Seasonal respiratory vaccine revenue. Q3 and Q4 typically generate higher respiratory vaccine revenue; a strong fall 2026 COVID/flu season could temporarily improve the revenue trajectory.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: peer comparison · FY25 fundamentals · Q2 2026 results · insider trades, last 24 months. Orin's read on MRNA; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 680% over twelve months, from $26.66 on 27 Oct 2025 to $207.97 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $245.81 on 21 Oct 2026; the last close is 15.4% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 199.3M, on 19 Aug 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
- Rose flags: large share sales by the company's own officers and directors, from the Form 4 each one files after trading.
On file
All MRNA filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| FMR | $3.6B | 0.2% |
| BlackRock | $2.1B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.6B | 0.0% |
| Capital World Investors | $1.6B | 0.2% |
| State Street | $1.1B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.1B | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $678.8M | 0.0% |
| Morgan Stanley | $668.0M | 0.0% |
| Two Sigma Investments | $503.8M | 0.4% |
| Invesco | $404.8M | 0.0% |
85 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 297 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$80.9M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 8 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about MRNA
Orin answers questions about MRNA from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
It lost money over the last 12 months, so it has no P/E (Tue 27 Oct close). It is priced at 37.3× its yearly sales — above its usual level (5.55×).
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | lost money | 8.4× | 20.8× |
| P/S | 37.3×above usual | 5.55× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | not meaningful | — | — |
| P/B | 12.2× | — | — |
- P/E: lost money — no P/E over the last 12 months.
- EV/EBITDA: not meaningful — over the last 12 months the business itself lost money before depreciation (operating income plus depreciation is below zero); a profit from one-off gains does not count.
- P/B: no usual level — it ran from 1.3× to 7.2× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $133 (from $25 to $245) — 36% below the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$133
$25 – $245 · −36% against the last close
- 3 buy or overweight
- 9 hold
- 5 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
It lost money over the last 12 months, so it has no P/E. Only 1 of the 1 companies it is compared to made a profit (PFE 39.4×), so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MRNAModerna, Inc. | $83B | lost money | n/m | −12.6% | −141.4% | −39% |
| PFEPfizer Inc. | $170B | 39.4× | 17.2× | 73.2% | 6.8% | 5% |
- MRNA: EV/EBITDA is not meaningful (n/m) — its cash exceeds its market value plus debt, or the business lost money before depreciation.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
It has lost money and has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so it has no P/E history.
- Nowlost money
- Now: no P/E — it lost money over the last 12 months.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Healthcare companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 20.8× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now20.8×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
It spends more cash than it brings in, so a cash-flow model gives no usable value (both versions come out below zero).
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.