Marsh & McLennan Companies, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Marsh & McLennan continues to deliver solid top-line growth — Q3 2026 revenue rose 8.1% YoY to $6.86B with another EPS beat ($2.03 actual vs $1.97 estimate) — but the stock has rallied to $188.35 with RSI at 71.3, signaling overbought conditions after a sharp move from the prior hold verdict near $172.
The valuation premium is stretched: EV/EBITDA of 18.4x sits 45.8% above the peer median of 12.6x, and P/E of 22.4x is a 16.6% premium, while FY2025 net margin compressed to 15.4% from 16.6% and EPS growth slowed to just 3.1%. Persistent insider net selling ($28.5M net dispositions over 24 months) and only modestly positive smart-money flows (SM score 0.036 as of Q2 2026) cap conviction. The franchise is high-quality with 18.5% FCF margins and consistent beats, but current pricing leaves limited margin of safety.
What could go wrong
- Margin compression persists. FY2025 net margin fell to 15.4% from 16.6% in FY2024 while revenue grew 10.3%, suggesting cost pressures from the Thrive program investments and AI/sales capacity spending are outpacing operating leverage.
- Valuation premium unwinds. EV/EBITDA at 18.4x is 45.8% above the peer median of 12.6x; any deceleration in revenue growth or EPS misses could trigger multiple compression back toward peers.
- Overbought technical reversal. RSI at 71.3 with the stock above both MA50 ($181.28) and MA200 ($176.70) increases near-term pullback risk after the rally from ~$172 to $188.35.
- Insider selling acceleration. Net insider dispositions of $28.5M over 24 months with CEO Doyle selling 16,656 shares at $188.51 on 2 Sep signal limited insider confidence at current levels.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Q3 2026 results · earnings vs estimates, 15 Oct · FY24 and FY25 fundamentals · peer comparison. Orin's read on MRSH; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 1.6% over twelve months, from $187.62 on 27 Oct 2025 to $190.67 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $199.27 on 22 Oct 2026; the last close is 4.3% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 9.7M, on 20 Mar 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All MRSH filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $6.6B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $5.2B | 0.1% |
| State Street | $3.7B | 0.1% |
| Capital World Investors | $3.0B | 0.4% |
| Wellington Management Group | $2.8B | 0.5% |
| Geode Capital Management | $2.3B | 0.1% |
| T. Rowe Price Associates | $2.2B | 0.2% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.1B | 0.1% |
| Capital Research Global Investors | $1.8B | 0.3% |
| Harris Associates | $1.4B | 1.9% |
114 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 195 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$29.6M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 9 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about MRSH
Orin answers questions about MRSH from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 22.7× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 1 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 25.7×); the typical Financial Services company on the NYSE is at 17.6×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 22.7×below usual | 25.7× | 17.6× |
| P/S | 3.20×below usual | 4.12× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.5×near usual | 17.9× | — |
| P/B | 6.2×below usual | 7.8× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $205 (from $182 to $234) — 8% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$205
$182 – $234 · +8% against the last close
- 6 buy or overweight
- 9 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 22.7× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 4 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 19.0×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MRSHMarsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. | $91B | 22.7× | 18.5× | 42.8% | 14.2% | 27% |
| AJGArthur J. Gallagher & Co. | $66B | 42.5× | 16.9× | 74.6% | 10.0% | 7% |
| AONAon plc | $64B | 16.5× | 14.0× | 83.1% | 22.2% | 40% |
| BROBrown & Brown, Inc. | $23B | 18.5× | 11.6× | 58.8% | 17.5% | 10% |
| WTWWillis Towers Watson Public Limited Company | $30B | 19.6× | 12.9× | 53.8% | 15.5% | 20% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 22.7× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now22.7×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Financial Services companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 17.6× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now17.6×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A cash-flow model is not built for a bank or an insurer — its cash moves with deposits, loans and claims — so none is shown.
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.