Marvell Technology, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Marvell's AI-driven turnaround is fundamentally sound — FY2026 revenue grew 42.1% to $8.19B with operating income swinging from -$720M to +$1.34B, and Q2 FY2027 revenue of $2.74B (up 36.5% YoY) with a ninth consecutive EPS beat extends the momentum.
However, at 74.7x earnings and 21.1x sales — roughly 81% and 98% above peer medians respectively — the stock prices in near-flawless execution, while persistent insider selling (net -573,229 shares over 24 months, with the CEO and COO selling as recently as October 2026) and a bearish MACD histogram of -5.88 with the stock trading below its 50-day MA of $241.04 signal near-term caution. The growth story justifies a premium, but the margin of safety is thin at current levels.
What could go wrong
- Valuation compression. At 74.7x PE and 21.1x PS — 81% and 98% above peer medians — any deceleration in revenue growth or guidance miss could trigger a sharp de-rating.
- Persistent insider selling. Net insider dispositions of 573,229 shares ($73.9M) over 24 months, with the CEO, COO, and Data Center Group President all selling in mid-October 2026, signal limited leadership conviction at current prices.
- Technical deterioration. RSI at 37.5 and MACD histogram at -5.88 with the stock below its 50-day MA of $241.04 suggest near-term momentum has weakened despite the strong fundamental story.
- Customer concentration in AI. The revenue surge is heavily tied to data center / AI demand; any slowdown in hyperscaler capex or custom silicon design wins could materially impact growth trajectory.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FY26 fundamentals · Q2 FY27 results · peer comparison · insider trades, last 24 months. Orin's read on MRVL; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 175% over twelve months, from $88.71 on 27 Oct 2025 to $243.57 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $316.43 on 4 Jun 2026; the last close is 23.0% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 251.0M, on 18 Jun 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All MRVL filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $25.5B | 0.4% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $17.2B | 0.4% |
| FMR | $17.0B | 0.7% |
| State Street | $12.5B | 0.4% |
| Invesco | $9.0B | 0.7% |
| Geode Capital Management | $6.3B | 0.3% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $6.3B | 0.3% |
| Goldman Sachs Group | $4.4B | 0.4% |
| Norges Bank | $4.2B | 0.4% |
| T. Rowe Price Associates | $4.1B | 0.4% |
142 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 659 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$62.2M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 5 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about MRVL
Orin answers questions about MRVL from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 79.9× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — above its usual level (25.5×); the typical Technology company on the NASDAQ is at 46.1×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 79.9×above usual | 25.5× | 46.1× |
| P/S | 22.6×above usual | 10.6× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 45.1× | — | — |
| P/B | 11.8×above usual | 3.9× | — |
- EV/EBITDA: no usual level — it ran from 15.4× to 155× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $328 (from $190 to $450) — 35% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$328
$190 – $450 · +35% against the last close
- 30 buy or overweight
- 3 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 79.9× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 9 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 42.5×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MRVLMarvell Technology, Inc. | $213B | 79.9× | 45.1× | 51.4% | 27.9% | 16% |
| ADIAnalog Devices, Inc. | $206B | 50.2× | 30.3× | 65.8% | 29.8% | 12% |
| AMDAdvanced Micro Devices, Inc. | $915B | 142× | 85.3× | 53.2% | 15.6% | 10% |
| AVGOBroadcom Inc. | $1.63T | 42.5× | 31.9× | 68.8% | 42.9% | 44% |
| INTCIntel Corporation | $496B | lost money | 145× | 38.9% | −19.8% | −11% |
| NVDANVIDIA Corporation | $5.25T | 27.4× | 22.5× | 74.7% | 63.7% | 110% |
| NXPINXP Semiconductors N.V. | $64B | 19.8× | 14.2× | 56.3% | 23.4% | 29% |
| ONON Semiconductor Corporation | $31B | 49.8× | 20.5× | 37.4% | 10.2% | 8% |
| QCOMQUALCOMM Incorporated | $167B | 12.2× | 15.2× | 53.1% | 31.6% | 50% |
| STMSTMicroelectronics N.V. | $43B | 91.8× | 19.2× | 34.3% | 3.5% | 3% |
| TXNTexas Instruments Incorporated | $282B | 40.0× | 26.6× | 60.2% | 34.3% | 41% |
- INTC: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 79.9× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now79.9×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Technology companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 46.1× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now46.1×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $22 a share — 91% below the $241.67 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $22 | 91% below $241.67 |
| Levered | $25 | 90% below $241.67 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.