Orin
MRVLNasdaq·Semiconductors

Marvell Technology, Inc. MRVL

Market cap $227.8BP/E 85.6× trailingGross margin 51.4%
$260.90
−1.46 (−0.56%)Wed close 16:00 ET
52-wk $70.69 – $329.88
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Orin's take
0.68conviction · moderate
Refreshed 28 Aug · take v3. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

Marvell's fundamental turnaround is undeniable — FY2026 revenue surged 42% to $8.19B with operating income swinging from -$720M to +$1.34B, and the just-reported Q2 FY2027 delivered record revenue of $2.739B (up 37% YoY) with data center revenue up 46% to $2.17B. However, at 20.1x sales (142% above the peer median of 8.3x) and 71x earnings, the stock prices in near-flawless execution, and the 8% post-earnings selloff on August 28 shows investors found the ~$18B FY2028 outlook and Google deal cadence underwhelming.

Persistent insider selling — net -$233M over 24 months with the CEO, COO, and Data Center president all selling in July–August — and a price below the 50-day MA of $228.56 reinforce that risk/reward is balanced at current levels. Patience for a better entry or evidence of accelerating Google-driven revenue is warranted.

What could go wrong

  • Valuation compression. At 20.1x sales and 71x PE, any deceleration in data center growth or guide-down could trigger a sharp multiple contraction; the 8% drop on August 28 illustrates how unforgiving the tape is.
  • Google deal monetization timing. The $120B Google partnership is not yet materially lifting revenue fast enough for investors; delays in custom AI-chip ramp could undermine the growth narrative.
  • Insider selling pressure. Net insider dispositions of -$233M over 24 months, with the CEO selling at $236 on August 17 and the COO selling 10,000 shares at $180.50 on August 3, signal limited insider confidence at these levels.
  • Competitive intensity. Custom silicon and data center connectivity face competition from hyperscaler in-house designs and peers; margin expansion from 16.3% operating margin is not guaranteed.

What would change my mind

Pullback to 200-day MA. Stock approaches the 200-day MA of ~$148.65, offering a materially better risk/reward entrybullish

Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals + derived_metrics, fiscal year ended 2026-01-31 · News snippets from GuruFocus and Invezz, earnings reported 2026-08-27 · Invezz news snippet, published 2026-08-28 · Technicals as of 2026-08-28 + CNBC/Invezz news. Orin's read on MRVL; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow
FilerPositionOf fund
Vanguard Capital Management$17.2B0.4% of fund
Fmr$17.0B0.7% of fund
State Street$12.5B0.4% of fund
Invesco$9.0B0.7% of fund
Geode Capital Management$6.3B0.3% of fund
Vanguard Portfolio Management$6.3B0.3% of fund

140 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 693 Form 4 filings, net −$237.0M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 5 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

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Where it trades

· Technology
MetricNowOwn medianSector
P/E85.6×53.3×
EV/EBITDA48.3×
P/S24.18×
P/B12.6×
What the price assumes

37.0%

free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $1.4B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.

What Wall Street published

73 firms · 2026-09-23
Consensus target

$272

$155$400 · +4% against today's price

How they rate it
  • 60 buy or overweight
  • 12 hold
  • 1 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 66.2× of 6 peers
CompanyMarket capP/EEV/EBITDAGrossNetROE
MRVLMarvell Technology, Inc.$228B85.6×48.3×51.4%27.9%16%
FTNTFortinet, Inc.$131B62.5×44.5×80.4%28.2%188%
GLWCorning Incorporated$133B69.9×35.9×36.3%11.2%16%
MPWRMonolithic Power Systems, Inc.$67B82.7×64.8×55.2%24.4%22%
NXPINXP Semiconductors N.V.$59B20.0×13.7×55.9%22.6%28%
SNPSSynopsys, Inc.$79B71.7×24.4×72.4%11.4%4%
TELTE Connectivity Ltd.$62B20.8×13.5×35.4%15.8%23%

The median is of the 6 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 29.3% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year
FY15 18.2×FY26 25.5×

What its sector has traded at

Technology
FY14 9.0×FY26 48.0×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Every estimate on one scale

price $260.90
52-week range$71 – $330
Analyst targets$155 – $400
At sector P/E (53×)$162

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.