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MSANYSE·Security & Protection Services

MSA Safety Incorporated MSA

Market cap $7.1BP/E 22.7× trailingGross margin 47.6%Reports Tue 27 Oct, after the close
$182.72
−0.12 (−0.07%)live 09:40 ET
52-wk $151.11 – $208.92
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Orin's take
0.62conviction · moderate
Refreshed 18 Aug · take v3. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

MSA Safety delivers a quality industrial profile with 21.4% operating margins and 15.8% FCF margins in FY2025, but EPS declined 1.7% and the stock trades at a 25% PE premium to the peer median. Q2 2026 results showed higher sales, earnings, and cash flow with mid-single-digit organic growth guidance maintained, and the Autronica Fire and Security acquisition closed in early July, yet Chairman Vartanian's $3.9M share sale on August 7 and $23.5M of net insider selling over 24 months temper enthusiasm.

Smart money interest is improving with 52 funds holding the stock as of Q2 2026 versus 40 a year earlier, and the price sits above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, but the modest growth profile does not justify adding at current premium levels.

What could go wrong

  • Valuation premium. PE of 23.5 is 25.4% above the peer median of 18.7, and PS of 3.75 is 114.6% above the peer median, leaving little room for error if growth disappoints.
  • Insider selling. Chairman Vartanian sold 20,000 shares for $3.9M on August 7, 2026, and net insider value over 24 months is -$23.5M despite a positive net share count of 92,071.
  • Margin compression. Gross margin contracted from 47.6% in FY2024 to 46.5% in FY2025, and EPS declined 1.7% year-over-year, signaling cost or mix pressure.
  • Acquisition integration. Autronica Fire and Security closed in early July 2026; integration execution and any impact on margins or leverage are untested.

What would change my mind

Q3 2026 organic growth acceleration. Quarterly organic growth exceeds mid-single digits with stable or expanding operating marginsbullish
Insider buying resumption. Senior executives begin open-market purchases after the recent pattern of net sellingbullish
Gross margin deterioration. Gross margin falls below 46% for two consecutive quarters, indicating structural cost pressurebearish
Autronica integration shortfall. Management lowers 2026 guidance or reports integration charges above expectationsbearish

Where this comes from: derived_metrics FY2025 · derived_metrics FY2025 · peer_relative · insider transactions. Orin's read on MSA; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow
FilerPositionOf fund
Vanguard Portfolio Management$319.3M0.0% of fund
Vanguard Capital Management$298.3M0.0% of fund
State Street$283.8M0.0% of fund
Jpmorgan Chase &$137.4M0.0% of fund
Geode Capital Management$120.8M0.0% of fund
Bank of New York Mellon$117.5M0.0% of fund

65 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 133 Form 4 filings, net −$23.5M. Of the 50 on hand, 1 was an open-market purchase and 2 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

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Where it trades

· Industrials
MetricNowOwn medianSector
P/E22.7×44.5×
EV/EBITDA14.4×
P/S3.63×
P/B5.1×
What the price assumes

10.1%

free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.3B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.

What Wall Street published

12 firms · 2026-09-23
Consensus target

$210

$197$223 · +15% against today's price

How they rate it
  • 7 buy or overweight
  • 5 hold
  • 0 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 18.4× of 5 peers
CompanyMarket capP/EEV/EBITDAGrossNetROE
MSAMSA Safety Incorporated$7B22.7×14.4×47.6%16.1%23%
ADTADT Inc.$5B8.2×4.6×51.4%12.0%17%
FBINFortune Brands Innovations, Inc.$5B31.7×15.4×45.6%3.4%6%
GATXGATX Corporation$7B18.3×17.5×46.2%17.9%13%
GTESGates Industrial Corporation plc$7B18.4×11.4×40.5%10.4%11%
MIDDThe Middleby Corporation$5B38.0%-13.2%-18%
MOG-AMoog Inc.$12B31.5×21.1×27.9%8.7%18%

The median is of the 5 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 23.1% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year
FY14 22.4×FY25 22.5×

What its sector has traded at

Industrials
FY14 173.5×FY26 32.7×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Every estimate on one scale

price $182.72
52-week range$151 – $209
Analyst targets$197 – $223
At sector P/E (45×)$359

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.