MSCI Inc. MSCI
MSCI remains a best-in-class indexing and analytics franchise — FY2025 revenue grew 9.75% to $3.13B with 82.4% gross margins and $1.55B in free cash flow (49.4% FCF margin), and Q2 2026 revenue growth accelerated to 12.2% YoY. However, the stock has slipped below both its 50-day ($578) and 200-day ($573) moving averages to $563, the Q2 2026 EPS miss of -1% broke a long beat streak and triggered analyst forecast cuts, and total debt has surged to $6.34B against deeply negative equity of -$2.65B following the First Street acquisition.
At 31x trailing earnings — an 86% premium to the peer median of 16.6x — the valuation leaves little room for error, making the risk/reward balanced rather than compelling.
What could go wrong
- Leverage and balance sheet deterioration. Total debt jumped to $6.34B in FY2025 from $4.66B in FY2024, while stockholders' equity worsened to -$2.65B from -$940M, amplifying financial risk if revenue growth slows.
- Premium valuation compression. At 31x PE and 12.3x PS — 86% and 334% premiums to peer medians respectively — any deceleration in growth or margin pressure could trigger a de-rating.
- Earnings momentum stalling. Q2 2026 produced the first EPS miss in the tracked sequence (-1% surprise), and analysts subsequently slashed forecasts, signaling potential headwinds to the consensus growth narrative.
- Technical breakdown. Stock at $563.09 is below both the 50-day ($578.44) and 200-day ($573.03) moving averages with RSI at 45.3, indicating bearish momentum that could deepen.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: derived_metrics FY2025 · quarterly_results Q2 2026 · earnings_surprises · fundamentals FY2025. Orin's read on MSCI; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All MSCI filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $2.6B | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.3B | 0.1% of fund |
| Bamco /Ny/ | $1.8B | 2.7% of fund |
| State Street | $1.8B | 0.1% of fund |
| Morgan Stanley | $1.2B | 0.1% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.1B | 0.1% of fund |
94 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 116 Form 4 filings, net $53.7M. Of the 50 on hand, 18 were open-market purchases and 5 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about MSCI
Orin answers questions about MSCI from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 30.6× | 42.6× | 21.6× |
| EV/EBITDA | 22.8× | 29.5× | — |
| P/S | 12.13× | 16.70× | — |
Its P/E sits below all 5 of the last 5 years (−1.32σ from its own mean).
11.3%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $1.5B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$702
$615 – $760 · +28% against today's price
- 20 buy or overweight
- 6 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSCIMSCI Inc. | $40B | 30.6× | 22.8× | 83.0% | 40.7% | -54% |
| AIGAmerican International Group, Inc. | $40B | 13.6× | 6.3× | 38.1% | 11.1% | 7% |
| ALLThe Allstate Corporation | $58B | 4.5× | 3.7× | 42.2% | 19.2% | 43% |
| AMPAmeriprise Financial, Inc. | $44B | 11.5× | 7.3× | 50.2% | 19.9% | 62% |
| CBOECboe Global Markets, Inc. | $28B | 20.8× | 13.3× | 52.3% | 26.7% | 26% |
| JPMJPMorgan Chase & Co. | $907B | 14.6× | 19.7× | 62.6% | 21.9% | 18% |
| METMetLife, Inc. | $63B | 18.5× | 10.1× | 25.6% | 4.6% | 13% |
| NDAQNasdaq, Inc. | $53B | 27.2× | 19.3× | 59.4% | 22.6% | 16% |
| SOFISoFi Technologies, Inc. | $22B | 32.9× | 23.5× | 76.5% | 11.4% | 6% |
The median is of the 8 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 84.9% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $326 | $603.99 · −46% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $346 | $603.99 · −43% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.