MSCI Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
MSCI's revenue growth is accelerating — quarterly YoY growth stepped up from 9.5% in Q3 2025 to 14.1% in Q1 2026 and 12.2% in Q2 2026 — while FY2025 margins remain best-in-class at 82.4% gross and 49.4% FCF, and the company just beat Q3 2026 EPS estimates with $5.11 actual versus $5.03 estimated.
The stock trades at a 19.7% P/E premium to the peer median of 26.0x but sits near five-year low multiples following a roughly 10% sell-off, and technicals are firming with price above the 50-day MA of $558.68 and a bullish MACD histogram of 2.31. The main caveat is balance-sheet leverage — total debt surged to $6.34B against negative equity of -$2.65B — but $1.55B in FY2025 free cash flow provides ample coverage, making the risk/reward attractive at current levels.
What could go wrong
- Leverage and negative equity. Total debt rose to $6.34B at FY2025-end from $4.66B in FY2024, against negative stockholders' equity of -$2.65B, increasing financial fragility if rates stay elevated or growth disappoints.
- Valuation premium to peers. MSCI trades at 31.2x P/E versus a peer median of 26.0x and 12.4x P/S versus 7.8x, leaving limited room for multiple compression if growth decelerates.
- Expense guidance pressure. A recent sell-off was tied to raised expense guidance; if incentive compensation continues to outpace revenue growth, operating margin could compress from the 54.7% FY2025 level.
- Index reclassification backlash. MSCI's proposal to reclassify Indonesia to Standalone Market status and its freeze on Turkey indexes could trigger regulatory or client pushback in emerging markets, potentially affecting index licensing revenue.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: quarterly results · fundamentals · earnings vs estimates · peer comparison. Orin's read on MSCI; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 10.0% over twelve months, from $546.86 on 27 Oct 2025 to $601.75 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $643.83 on 1 Jun 2026; the last close is 6.5% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 2.6M, on 26 Jun 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All MSCI filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $3.1B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $2.6B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.3B | 0.1% |
| BAMCO | $1.8B | 2.7% |
| State Street | $1.8B | 0.1% |
| Morgan Stanley | $1.2B | 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.1B | 0.1% |
| Viking Global Investors | $650.0M | 1.9% |
| Norges Bank | $481.5M | 0.0% |
| Invesco | $452.4M | 0.0% |
97 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 118 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net $5.3M. Of the 50 on hand, 16 were open-market purchases and 7 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about MSCI
Orin answers questions about MSCI from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 32.0× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — lower than in all 5 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 42.6×); the typical Financial Services company on the NYSE is at 17.6×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 32.0×below usual | 42.6× | 17.6× |
| P/S | 12.7×below usual | 16.7× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 23.8×below usual | 29.5× | — |
| P/B | below zero | — | — |
- P/B: below zero — it owes more than it owns on its books.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $688 (from $615 to $735) — 14% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$688
$615 – $735 · +14% against the last close
- 9 buy or overweight
- 0 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 32.0× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 3 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 27.3×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSCIMSCI Inc. | $44B | 32.0× | 23.8× | 82.9% | 40.3% | n/m |
| FDSFactSet Research Systems Inc. | $11B | 21.2× | 13.5× | 50.6% | 21.5% | 26% |
| MCOMoody's Corporation | $82B | 28.8× | 22.8× | 73.1% | 35.3% | 86% |
| SPGIS&P Global Inc. | $132B | 27.3× | 17.4× | 70.9% | 30.5% | 17% |
- MSCI: return on equity is not meaningful (n/m) — book value is below zero.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 32.0× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now32.0×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Financial Services companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 17.6× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now17.6×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $293 a share — 52% below the $606.79 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $293 | 52% below $606.79 |
| Levered | $312 | 49% below $606.79 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.