Motorola Solutions, Inc. MSI
Motorola Solutions remains a high-quality compounder with FY2025 revenue of $11.68B, 25.1% operating margin, and 22% FCF margin, and Q2 2026 results showed accelerating 13% revenue growth with raised full-year guidance. The just-completed $1.5B D-Fend acquisition extends the counter-drone growth runway, and valuation is reasonable versus peers (EV/EBITDA of 23.3 vs. peer median 33.0).
However, at $480.84 the stock trades roughly 13% above its 50-day MA ($425.89) with an RSI of 68.5, insiders have been net sellers of $231M over 24 months, and the smart money score has faded from 0.0658 to 0.0052 quarter-over-quarter — the risk/reward for new capital is unattractive at current levels despite the strong fundamental story.
What could go wrong
- Leverage escalation. Total debt rose from $6.55B in FY2024 to $9.77B in FY2025, and the $1.5B D-Fend acquisition adds further balance sheet pressure, though FY2025 FCF of $2.57B provides coverage.
- Technical overextension. Stock at $480.84 sits ~13% above the 50-day MA ($425.89) and ~15% above the 200-day MA ($417.21), with RSI at 68.5, leaving it vulnerable to a mean-reversion pullback.
- Persistent insider selling. Over the trailing 24 months, insiders net sold ~389K shares for ~$231M, with recent August 2026 transactions continuing the disposition pattern.
- Smart money fading. The smart money score dropped from 0.0658 as of 2026-03-31 to 0.0052 as of 2026-06-30, suggesting institutional enthusiasm is cooling at current prices.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP FY2025 annual + derived_metrics · MarketBeat Q2 earnings call highlights (2026-08-08) · Business Wire (2026-08-20) · Technicals as of 2026-08-19. Orin's read on MSI; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All MSI filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $4.5B | 0.1% of fund |
| Brasada Capital Management | $4.4B | 0.8% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $4.0B | 0.2% of fund |
| State Street | $3.3B | 0.1% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.7B | 0.1% of fund |
| Fmr | $1.6B | 0.1% of fund |
110 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 326 Form 4 filings, net −$238.6M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 12 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about MSI
Orin answers questions about MSI from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 35.4× | 31.7× | 53.3× |
| EV/EBITDA | 22.2× | 22.0× | — |
| P/S | 6.17× | 5.45× | — |
| P/B | 28.2× | — | — |
Its P/E sits 60th percentile of its own last 5 years (−0.01σ from its own mean).
12.9%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $2.6B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$526
$476 – $550 · +15% against today's price
- 24 buy or overweight
- 6 hold
- 4 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSIMotorola Solutions, Inc. | $76B | 35.4× | 22.2× | 50.0% | 17.4% | 86% |
| ADSKAutodesk, Inc. | $45B | 27.2× | 19.2× | 91.2% | 21.1% | 53% |
| CRWVCoreWeave, Inc. Class A Common Stock | $49B | — | 37.0× | 67.4% | -25.4% | -45% |
| FTNTFortinet, Inc. | $131B | 62.5× | 44.5× | 80.4% | 28.2% | 188% |
| STXSeagate Technology Holdings plc | $203B | 62.3× | 48.3× | 45.6% | 26.1% | 348% |
| TELTE Connectivity Ltd. | $62B | 20.8× | 13.4× | 35.4% | 15.8% | 23% |
| WDAYWorkday, Inc. | $50B | 38.6× | 31.9× | 75.8% | 12.3% | 17% |
| WDCWestern Digital Corporation | $155B | 16.6× | 17.8× | 48.9% | 72.9% | 119% |
The median is of the 6 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 7.7% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $453 | $417.67 · +8% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $439 | $417.67 · +5% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.