Motorola Solutions, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Motorola Solutions continues to compound fundamentals — FY2025 revenue of $11.68B grew 8% YoY with operating margin of 25.1% and FCF margin of 22.0%, while Q2 2026 accelerated to 13.3% revenue growth and a 14.5% EPS surprise ($4.41 vs. $3.85 estimated) — but the stock has slipped to $446.33, below its 50-day MA of $463.53 with a negative MACD histogram and RSI of 41.3, signaling deteriorating momentum.
Total debt has climbed to $9.77B as of FY2025 from $6.55B in FY2024, partly funding acquisitions like the $1.5B D-Fend deal, and insiders remain net sellers at $239.7M over 24 months with zero open-market acquisitions. The PE of 34.6 is modestly below the peer median of 36.2, yet the EV/EBITDA of 22.0 trades at a 19% premium and the smart money score has collapsed to 0.00 as of Q2 2026 from 0.043 in Q1 2026, suggesting institutional conviction is fading even as the fundamental results keep beating estimates.
What could go wrong
- Leverage escalation. Total debt rose to $9.77B in FY2025 from $6.55B in FY2024, and the $1.5B D-Fend acquisition plus DeepNeuronic deal suggest further balance sheet strain against equity of just $2.41B.
- Insider selling persistence. Over 24 months insiders disposed 141 transactions with zero open-market acquisitions, net selling $239.7M in value; CEO Gregory Brown sold shares at $483–$487 in September 2026.
- Smart money outflow. Smart money score dropped to 0.00 as of Q2 2026 from 0.043 in Q1 2026, and recent 13F filings show multiple institutions trimming positions in Q3 2026.
- Technical breakdown. Stock at $446.33 is below its 50-day MA of $463.53 with negative MACD and RSI of 41.3; a break below the 200-day MA of $433.31 could trigger further selling.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FY25 fundamentals · Q2 2026 results and earnings vs estimates · FY24 and FY25 fundamentals · insider trades, last 24 months. Orin's read on MSI; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 8.9% over twelve months, from $443.99 on 27 Oct 2025 to $483.61 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $491.24 on 1 Sep 2026; the last close is 1.6% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 4.3M, on 19 Dec 2025).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All MSI filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $6.6B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $4.5B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $4.0B | 0.2% |
| State Street | $3.3B | 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.7B | 0.1% |
| FMR | $1.6B | 0.1% |
| AllianceBernstein | $1.5B | 0.5% |
| Ameriprise Financial | $1.2B | 0.2% |
| Norges Bank | $978.0M | 0.1% |
| Goldman Sachs Group | $900.4M | 0.1% |
113 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 327 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$239.7M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 12 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about MSI
Orin answers questions about MSI from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 41.2× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close) — higher than in 4 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 31.7×); the typical Technology company on the NYSE is at 39.5×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 41.2×above usual | 31.7× | 39.5× |
| P/S | 6.79×above usual | 5.45× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 25.4×above usual | 22.0× | — |
| P/B | 27.9× | — | — |
- P/B: no usual level — it ran from 26.4× to 372× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $526 (from $476 to $550) — 9% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$526
$476 – $550 · +9% against the last close
- 7 buy or overweight
- 0 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 41.2× its last 12 months of profit. Only 1 of the 1 companies it is compared to made a profit (ZBRA 35.7×), so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSIMotorola Solutions, Inc. | $86B | 41.2× | 25.4× | 50.6% | 16.5% | 78% |
| ZBRAZebra Technologies Corporation | $18B | 35.7× | 18.1× | 48.9% | 9.2% | 15% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 41.2× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now41.2×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Technology companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 39.5× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now39.5×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $380 a share — 22% below the $485.39 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $380 | 22% below $485.39 |
| Levered | $370 | 24% below $485.39 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.