M&T Bank Corporation MTB
M&T Bank's FY2025 results show real earnings momentum—EPS grew 16.1% to $17.00 on a 30.0% operating margin—and Q2 2026 results per news reports delivered 5.7% revenue growth and 25.5% EPS growth, while the stock's 28% EV/EBITDA discount to the regional bank peer median (11.9x vs. 16.5x) leaves room for re-rating. However, after a ~20% three-month rally the stock at $244.55 sits above both its 50-day ($242.53) and 200-day ($217.53) moving averages with MACD histogram negative (-1.06) and RSI at 43.9, while persistent insider net selling ($60.4M over 24 months) tempers enthusiasm despite an improving smart money score (0.0329 as of Q2 2026, up from 0.0159 at year-end 2025).
Hold for a pullback toward the 50-day MA or confirmation that institutional inflows and earnings strength can overcome insider distribution.
What could go wrong
- Insider distribution pressure. Net insider selling of $60.4M over 24 months across 148 transactions (81 dispositions vs. 67 acquisitions), with recent sales by the CFO and Vice Chairman continuing into August 2026.
- Revenue decline trend. FY2025 revenue fell 8.2% YoY to $12.31B from $13.41B in FY2024; if Q2 2026's reported 5.7% revenue growth does not sustain, margin expansion alone may not support the stock's recent 20% rally.
- Technical exhaustion after sharp rally. Stock trades above both 50-day ($242.53) and 200-day ($217.53) MAs after a ~20% three-month gain, with MACD histogram at -1.06 and RSI at 43.9 suggesting waning near-term momentum.
- Valuation premium on earnings multiples. PE of 13.17x is 5.5% above the peer median of 12.48x and PS of 2.85x is 11% above the peer median of 2.57x, limiting upside if growth disappoints.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP FY2025 annual + derived_metrics · peer_relative composite · insider summary (24-month window) · smart_money 13F composite as of 2026-06-30. Orin's read on MTB; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All MTB filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Fmr | $3.0B | 0.1% of fund |
| Wellington Management Group Llp | $2.3B | 0.4% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $2.3B | 0.0% of fund |
| State Street | $1.7B | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.7B | 0.1% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.0B | 0.1% of fund |
85 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 153 Form 4 filings, net −$68.8M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 12 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about MTB
Orin answers questions about MTB from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 11.5× | 11.5× | 21.6× |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.0× | — | — |
| P/S | 2.55× | 2.67× | — |
| P/B | 1.2× | 1.1× | — |
Its P/E sits 40th percentile of its own last 5 years (+0.46σ from its own mean).
-0.4%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $2.9B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$264
$224 – $304 · +20% against today's price
- 15 buy or overweight
- 29 hold
- 4 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTBM&T Bank Corporation | $32B | 11.5× | 11.0× | 76.0% | 24.4% | 11% |
| FITBFifth Third Bancorp | $47B | 17.4× | 18.6× | 68.5% | 15.8% | 8% |
| HBANHuntington Bancshares Incorporated | $31B | 11.3× | 14.2× | 63.7% | 16.6% | 9% |
| RFRegions Financial Corporation | $23B | 11.0× | 7.2× | 76.8% | 23.3% | 12% |
| TFCTruist Financial Corporation | $59B | 10.7× | 17.0× | 64.0% | 19.1% | 9% |
The median is of the 4 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 3.7% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $594 | $225.84 · +163% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $718 | $225.84 · +218% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.