M&T Bank Corporation
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
M&T Bank's Q3 2026 results validate the earnings-momentum thesis: revenue of $3.41B rose 35.7% YoY, net income reached $775M, and actual EPS of $5.08 topped the $4.93 consensus by 3.0%, beating estimates in seven of the past eight quarters.
At $215.28, the stock trades at 11.19x earnings and 8.13x EV/EBITDA — a 32.4% EV/EBITDA discount to the peer median — while RSI at 34.77 and a positive MACD histogram signal oversold conditions with momentum turning. Persistent insider selling ($36.2M net over 24 months with zero open-market purchases) and a slightly negative smart-money score (-0.01 as of Q2 2026) temper but do not override the valuation and earnings case.
What could go wrong
- Persistent insider selling. Over 24 months, insiders recorded 31 dispositions and zero open-market acquisitions, netting -$36.2M in shares sold — a sustained lack of insider conviction.
- Smart-money outflows. The institutional smart-money score deteriorated from +0.02 (Q1 2025) to -0.01 as of Q2 2026, with 60 funds holding positions — a mild but consistent drift negative.
- FY2025 revenue contraction. Full-year 2025 revenue fell 8.2% YoY to $12.31B; while Q3 2026's 35.7% YoY revenue jump suggests recovery, the full-year trend remains unconfirmed.
- Cost and fee headwinds. Zacks noted elevated expenses and weaker fee income as challenges alongside NII and loan growth support heading into Q3.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Q3 2026 results · earnings vs estimates, 16 Oct · peer comparison, 16 Oct · technicals, 16 Oct. Orin's read on MTB; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 21.0% over twelve months, from $182.92 on 27 Oct 2025 to $221.31 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $254.09 on 14 Aug 2026; the last close is 12.9% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 2.9M, on 19 Dec 2025).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All MTB filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $3.1B | 0.0% |
| FMR | $3.0B | 0.1% |
| Wellington Management Group | $2.3B | 0.4% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $2.3B | 0.0% |
| State Street | $1.7B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.7B | 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.0B | 0.1% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $967.8M | 0.1% |
| Invesco | $958.0M | 0.1% |
| Morgan Stanley | $854.5M | 0.0% |
88 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 154 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$36.6M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 13 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about MTB
Orin answers questions about MTB from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 11.5× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 2 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 11.9×); the typical Financial Services company on the NYSE is at 17.6×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 11.5×near usual | 11.9× | 17.6× |
| P/S | 2.40×below usual | 2.56× | — |
| P/B | 1.1×above usual | 1.1× | — |
- P/S: for a bank, sales here are gross revenue — interest income plus non-interest revenue, before the interest it pays — so its P/S reads lower than it would on the net revenue in its filings.
- EV/EBITDA: not used for a lender — the debt in its enterprise value is mostly the deposits it lends out.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $254 (from $224 to $301) — 15% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$254
$224 – $301 · +15% against the last close
- 5 buy or overweight
- 11 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 11.5× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 6 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 12.1×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTBM&T Bank Corporation | $32B | 11.5× | n/a | n/a | 22.6% | 11% |
| CFGCitizens Financial Group, Inc. | $28B | 13.1× | n/a | n/a | 19.5% | 9% |
| FITBFifth Third Bancorp | $49B | 18.1× | n/a | n/a | 15.9% | 8% |
| HBANHuntington Bancshares Incorporated | $32B | 12.2× | n/a | n/a | 16.3% | 8% |
| KEYKeyCorp | $23B | 11.6× | n/a | n/a | 20.1% | 11% |
| PNCThe PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. | $91B | 12.1× | n/a | n/a | 22.1% | 13% |
| RFRegions Financial Corporation | $24B | 11.0× | n/a | n/a | 24.0% | 12% |
- MTB, CFG, FITB, HBAN, KEY, PNC, RF: gross margin is not used (n/a) for a bank, an insurer or a property trust — what it sells is money or space, not goods.
- MTB, CFG, FITB, HBAN, KEY, PNC, RF: EV/EBITDA is not used (n/a) for a lender — the debt in its enterprise value is mostly the deposits it lends out.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 11.5× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now11.5×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Financial Services companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 17.6× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now17.6×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A cash-flow model is not built for a bank or an insurer — its cash moves with deposits, loans and claims — so none is shown.
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.