Mettler-Toledo International Inc. MTD
Mettler-Toledo's Q2 2026 earnings beat and raised 2026 outlook signal a potential reacceleration led by China and emerging markets, but FY2025 fundamentals still show only 4.0% revenue growth, a net income growth of just 0.7%, and operating margin compression to 27.8% from 29.1% in FY2024 — not enough to justify the valuation premium of 31.8x trailing P/E (7% above peer median) and 6.9x P/S (46% above peer median). Insiders are net sellers over the trailing 24 months (-$23.5M net value), with the CFO and a director executing same-day option exercises and sales in early August 2026, and smart money positioning is only marginally positive at 0.0248 as of Q2 2026.
The stock trades above both its 50-day ($1,295) and 200-day ($1,321) moving averages, but MACD has turned bearish (histogram -4.72), suggesting near-term momentum may be fading after the post-earnings rally to $1,417.
What could go wrong
- Margin compression persists. FY2025 operating margin declined to 27.8% from 29.1% in FY2024 despite revenue growth of 4.0%; if Q2 2026 reacceleration does not translate into sustained margin recovery, the premium multiple is unsupported.
- Insider selling acceleration. Over the trailing 24 months, insiders net sold $23.5M in shares; in early August 2026 alone, the CFO and a director executed same-day option exercises and sold shares at prices above $1,430, signaling limited insider conviction at current levels.
- Valuation stretch vs. peers. P/S of 6.9x is 46% above the peer median of 4.75x and EV/EBITDA of 23.7x is 26% above the peer median of 18.7x, leaving little room for disappointment if growth does not reaccelerate meaningfully.
- Negative book equity and leverage. Total debt of $2.34B against negative stockholders' equity of -$23.6M as of FY2025 increases balance sheet fragility if end-market conditions deteriorate.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: derived_metrics FY2025 · derived_metrics FY2024 · peer_relative · insider summary. Orin's read on MTD; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All MTD filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.7B | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.3B | 0.1% of fund |
| State Street | $1.2B | 0.0% of fund |
| Alliancebernstein L.P | $856.5M | 0.3% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $780.5M | 0.0% of fund |
| Bank of New York Mellon | $762.6M | 0.1% of fund |
78 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 131 Form 4 filings, net −$24.8M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 11 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about MTD
Orin answers questions about MTD from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 34.1× | 33.6× | 26.4× |
| EV/EBITDA | 25.1× | 25.1× | — |
| P/S | 7.43× | 7.14× | — |
Its P/E sits 60th percentile of its own last 5 years (−0.39σ from its own mean).
15.8%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.8B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$1466
$1194 – $1600 · −3% against today's price
- 8 buy or overweight
- 11 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTDMettler-Toledo International Inc. | $31B | 34.1× | 25.1× | 58.4% | 21.9% | -1200% |
| AAgilent Technologies, Inc. | $49B | 34.0× | 25.9× | 53.7% | 19.5% | 20% |
| DGXQuest Diagnostics Incorporated | $26B | 24.8× | 15.9× | 33.1% | 9.2% | 14% |
| DXCMDexCom, Inc. | $33B | 33.8× | 21.4× | 62.5% | 20.1% | 36% |
| IQVIQVIA Holdings Inc. | $45B | 33.8× | 16.9× | 26.2% | 8.1% | 22% |
| STESTERIS plc | $20B | 25.5× | 12.1× | 44.4% | 13.3% | 11% |
| WATWaters Corporation | $42B | 107.0× | 52.4× | 50.8% | 3.6% | 2% |
The median is of the 6 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 0.9% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $670 | $1130.18 · −41% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $633 | $1130.18 · −44% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.