MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
MACOM's growth reacceleration is genuine—Q3 FY2026 revenue hit $342.2M, up 35.8% YoY, with EPS of $1.28 and a fourth consecutive EPS beat—but the stock at $306.36 trades at 95.7x earnings and 66.2x EV/EBITDA, roughly 149% and 270% above peer medians, leaving no room for error.
Persistent insider selling—$859.4M in net dispositions over 24 months with zero cluster buys—remains a meaningful negative signal even as constructive technicals (price above both the 50-day MA of $284.78 and 200-day MA of $277.93 with a positive MACD histogram of 3.09) and AI-driven demand tailwinds support the narrative. Hold is appropriate: the fundamental momentum is real, but the valuation already discounts substantial perfection and insiders are aggressively exiting.
What could go wrong
- Extreme valuation. PE of 95.7x is 148.6% above the peer median of 38.5x; EV/EBITDA of 66.2x is 269.6% above the peer median of 17.9x, meaning any growth disappointment could trigger a sharp de-rating.
- Persistent insider selling. Over 24 months, insiders executed 323 dispositions totaling $859.4M in net value with zero acquisitions, including recent October 2026 sales by the SVP/GC and multiple August 2026 sales by the CFO.
- FY2025 net loss overhang. FY2025 posted a GAAP net loss of $54.2M (net margin of -5.6%) despite 32.6% revenue growth, showing that operating leverage can be eroded by costs or one-time charges.
- Smart money apathy. Smart money score of 0.01 as of Q2 2026 is negligible, and fund count of 61 is modest for a stock at this market cap, suggesting limited institutional conviction beyond passive flows.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Q3 FY26 results · peer comparison · insider trades · FY25 fundamentals. Orin's read on MTSI; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 74.7% over twelve months, from $146.39 on 27 Oct 2025 to $255.68 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $409.68 on 26 May 2026; the last close is 37.6% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 4.3M, on 26 Jun 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All MTSI filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| FMR | $4.0B | 0.2% |
| BlackRock | $3.6B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.4B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.2B | 0.0% |
| State Street | $860.5M | 0.0% |
| Invesco | $817.6M | 0.1% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $793.0M | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $536.3M | 0.0% |
| Wellington Management Group | $458.6M | 0.1% |
| Massachusetts Financial Services | $443.6M | 0.1% |
91 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 404 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$857.2M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 40 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about MTSI
Orin answers questions about MTSI from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 43.1× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close); the typical Technology company on the NASDAQ is at 46.1×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 43.1× | — | 46.1× |
| P/S | 10.9×above usual | 8.91× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 32.5× | — | — |
| P/B | 8.6×above usual | 7.1× | — |
- P/E: no usual level — it ran from 8.2× to 119× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- EV/EBITDA: no usual level — it ran from 13.4× to 248× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $401 (from $300 to $475) — 57% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$401
$300 – $475 · +57% against the last close
- 9 buy or overweight
- 2 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 43.1× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 6 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 50.4×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTSIMACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. | $15B | 43.1× | 32.5× | 58.0% | 25.3% | 22% |
| CRDOCredo Technology Group Holding Ltd | $31B | 56.8× | 52.6× | 67.1% | 33.8% | 27% |
| DIODDiodes Incorporated | $3B | 27.1× | 12.1× | 33.3% | 6.5% | 6% |
| LITELumentum Holdings Inc. | $78B | lost money | — | 41.7% | −230.1% | −300% |
| MPWRMonolithic Power Systems, Inc. | $60B | 73.9× | 56.1× | 55.2% | 24.4% | 22% |
| MXLMaxLinear, Inc. | $7B | lost money | 207× | 58.0% | −4.4% | −6% |
| QRVOQorvo, Inc. | $10B | 26.2× | 13.2× | 48.2% | 11.0% | 11% |
| SLABSilicon Laboratories Inc. | $7B | lost money | n/m | 59.9% | −4.6% | −4% |
| SMTCSemtech Corporation | $13B | 87.1× | 104× | 52.0% | 13.1% | 25% |
| SWKSSkyworks Solutions, Inc. | $13B | 44.1× | 16.1× | 40.7% | 7.2% | 5% |
- SLAB: EV/EBITDA is not meaningful (n/m) — its operating profit before depreciation over the last 12 months is so small against its price that the ratio says little.
- LITE, MXL, SLAB: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 43.1× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now43.1×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Technology companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 46.1× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now46.1×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $27 a share — 89% below the $256.79 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $27 | 89% below $256.79 |
| Levered | $38 | 85% below $256.79 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.