Metallus Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Metallus holds as the cyclical earnings recovery is real but valuation has run ahead of confirmed margin improvement.
Q2 2026 revenue of $341M grew 12% YoY with EPS of $0.21 (versus $0.09 in the year-ago quarter) and the $995M DLA defense contract adds a structural tailwind, yet FY2025 operating margin of just 0.1% and a PE of 108.5 on depressed earnings leave limited margin of safety at $20.62. Persistent insider selling (net -$3.06M over 24 months, including the outgoing CEO) and the pending CEO transition add uncertainty ahead of Q3 2026 results scheduled for November 2.
What could go wrong
- Margin recovery stalls. Q2 2026 operating margin of roughly 3% remains far below FY2023's 7.5%; if operational leverage from the defense ramp and new commissioned assets does not materialize, earnings stay depressed.
- Q3 2026 disappointment. Results are pending November 2; Q4 2025 demonstrated how quickly the cycle can deteriorate (operating income -$16.3M, EPS -$0.34).
- Insider selling pattern. 24-month net dispositions of 157,745 shares worth $3.06M with zero open-market acquisitions, including CEO sales in October 2026 ahead of his December 31 retirement.
- Defense contract timing. The $995M DLA award is an IDIQ contract; revenue recognition pace depends on delivery order flow and could lag expectations.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Q2 2026 results · Q2 2025 results · FY25 fundamentals · peer comparison. Orin's read on MTUS; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 19.1% over twelve months, from $17.74 on 27 Oct 2025 to $21.13 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $22.03 on 17 Aug 2026; the last close is 4.1% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 2.9M, on 20 Mar 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All MTUS filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $108.9M | 0.0% |
| State Street | $45.1M | 0.0% |
| Mirae Asset Global ETFs Holdings | $37.5M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $29.3M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $19.9M | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $17.4M | 0.0% |
| Ameriprise Financial | $13.6M | 0.0% |
| Charles Schwab Investment Management | $12.6M | 0.0% |
| Two Sigma Investments | $10.0M | 0.0% |
| Morgan Stanley | $9.6M | 0.0% |
43 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 103 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$3.1M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 9 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about MTUS
Orin answers questions about MTUS from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 111× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close); the typical Basic Materials company on the NYSE is at 22.4×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 111× | — | 22.4× |
| P/S | 0.72×above usual | 0.62× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.4×above usual | 5.0× | — |
| P/B | 1.3×above usual | 1.1× | — |
- P/E: no usual level — it ran from 4.4× to 471× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 111× its last 12 months of profit. Only 1 of the 2 companies it is compared to made a profit (GPRE 4.8×), so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTUSMetallus Inc. | $876M | 111× | 11.4× | 8.2% | 0.7% | 1% |
| GPREGreen Plains Inc. | $960M | 4.8× | 4.6× | 7.2% | 10.8% | 23% |
| LWLGLightwave Logic, Inc. | $709M | lost money | n/m | 98.9% | below −1,000% | −30% |
- LWLG: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- LWLG: EV/EBITDA is not meaningful (n/m) — its cash exceeds its market value plus debt, or the business lost money before depreciation.
- LWLG: net margin below −1,000% — it lost about $91 for each $1 of sales.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 111× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now111×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Basic Materials companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 22.4× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now22.4×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $14 a share — 35% below the $20.98 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $14 | 35% below $20.98 |
| Levered | $13 | 40% below $20.98 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.