Metallus Inc. MTUS
Metallus remains a buy as Q2 2026 results confirm the cyclical earnings inflection is real — Q2 net sales of $341M grew 12% YoY, net income rose to $8.9M from $3.7M in the prior-year quarter, and adjusted EBITDA of $29M climbed 9% YoY, with the order book up over 50% YoY providing strong H2 visibility. The balance sheet is exceptionally clean ($14.9M total debt against $686M equity as of FY2025 year-end) and the credit agreement is refinanced to 2031, while the heavy FY2025 capex cycle ($109M) is moderating — Q2 strategic capex was just $15.2M and the bloom reheat furnace is now commissioned — paving the way for FCF recovery from the FY2025 trough of -$93M.
At $19.52 with a P/S of 0.66 and the stock above its 200-day MA of $18.66, the setup offers cyclical downside protection, while AS9100D aerospace certification and the U.S. Army defense partnership add a structural growth layer beyond the cyclical recovery.
What could go wrong
- Margin recovery stalls. FY2025 gross margin of 8.21% and operating margin of 0.09% remain near cycle lows; if pricing or mix does not continue improving, the company could slip back to losses as it did in FY2025 (-$1.2M net income).
- Steel cycle downturn. Automotive and industrial demand weakness could reverse the 12% YoQ2 revenue growth and the 50%+ order book expansion, derailing the recovery before FCF normalizes.
- Insider selling signal. The EVP/CFO sold 5,198 shares at $20.00 on June 16, 2026, and net insider value over the trailing 24 months is -$5.67M despite net positive share count of +440,125, a mixed signal on near-term confidence.
- Technical weakness. MACD histogram is negative at -0.207 and the stock trades below its 50-day MA of $19.99, suggesting near-term momentum headwinds despite the 200-day MA support at $18.66.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: PRNewsWire Q2 2026 results announcement (2026-08-03) · Zacks Investment Research (2026-08-03) · MarketBeat Q2 Earnings Call Highlights (2026-08-05) · PRNewsWire (2026-08-04 and 2026-08-26). Orin's read on MTUS; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All MTUS filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| State Street | $45.1M | 0.0% of fund |
| Mirae Asset Global Etfs Holdings | $37.5M | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $29.3M | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $19.9M | 0.0% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $17.4M | 0.0% of fund |
| Ameriprise Financial | $13.6M | 0.0% of fund |
42 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 100 Form 4 filings, net −$5.7M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 6 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about MTUS
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Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 98.5× | — | 29.8× |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.0× | — | — |
| P/S | 0.64× | — | — |
| P/B | 1.1× | — | — |
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTUSMetallus Inc. | $779M | 98.5× | 10.0× | 8.2% | 0.7% | 1% |
| GPREGreen Plains Inc. | $1B | 8.4× | 6.0× | 10.0% | 6.7% | 16% |
| LWLGLightwave Logic, Inc. | $812M | — | — | -546.3% | -9134.4% | -30% |
The median is of the 1 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 1067.2% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.