Mueller Water Products, Inc. MWA
Mueller Water Products delivered a strong Q3 FY2026 beat ($0.50 EPS vs $0.39 consensus) on the back of pricing actions, tariff refunds, and municipal infrastructure demand, capping a multi-year margin expansion that lifted operating margin from 8.95% in FY2022 to 18.23% in FY2025. At 17.7x earnings and 11.3x EV/EBITDA, MWA trades at roughly a 35–40% discount to peer medians, yet the stock has broken below both its 50-day ($25.59) and 200-day ($26.31) moving averages with a negative MACD histogram, and persistent net insider selling ($16.7M over 24 months, including a $1.06M CEO sale on 2026-08-10) tempers enthusiasm.
The fundamental story is intact but the technical breakdown post-earnings and flat smart-money positioning (score -0.0007 as of 2026-06-30) suggest waiting for price stabilization before adding exposure.
What could go wrong
- Technical deterioration. Stock at $25.29 is below both MA50 ($25.59) and MA200 ($26.31) with negative MACD histogram (-0.116), suggesting momentum has turned bearish despite the earnings beat.
- Persistent insider selling. Net insider dispositions of $16.7M over 24 months, including CEO selling 40,000 shares at $26.39 on 2026-08-10 and a former officer selling 54,254 shares at $25.26 on 2026-05-28.
- Smart money outflows. Fund count declined from 54 to 50 between Q1 and Q2 2026, with smart-money score at -0.0007 as of 2026-06-30, indicating institutional positioning is essentially flat to slightly negative.
- Cyclical demand risk. Municipal infrastructure spending is subject to budget cycles and funding availability; any slowdown in municipal orders or pricing power could reverse the margin expansion trajectory.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Zacks news article, 2026-08-05 · derived_metrics, FMP annual fundamentals · peer_relative, as of 2026-08-19 · technicals, as of 2026-08-19. Orin's read on MWA; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All MWA filings| Form | Filed | What it says | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10-Q | 6 Aug | Mueller Water Products, Inc. | read |
| 8-K | 5 Aug | Mueller Water Products, Inc. | read |
| 8-K | 18 Jun | Mueller Water Products, Inc. | read |
| 10-Q | 6 May | Mueller Water Products, Inc. | read |
| 8-K | 5 May | Mueller Water Products, Inc. | read |
| 13G | 30 Apr | — | on file |
| 13G | 29 Apr | — | on file |
| 13G | 27 Apr | — | on file |
Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $298.9M | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $181.7M | 0.0% of fund |
| State Street | $163.5M | 0.0% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $129.9M | 0.0% of fund |
| Franklin Resources | $123.3M | 0.0% of fund |
| Morgan Stanley | $58.7M | 0.0% of fund |
70 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 199 Form 4 filings, net −$9.2M. Of the 50 on hand, 4 were open-market purchases and 12 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about MWA
Orin answers questions about MWA from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 15.2× | — | 44.5× |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.7× | — | — |
| P/S | 2.30× | — | — |
| P/B | 3.0× | — | — |
7.5%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.2B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$28
$21 – $35 · +27% against today's price
- 10 buy or overweight
- 10 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MWAMueller Water Products, Inc. | $3B | 15.2× | 9.7× | 37.9% | 15.0% | 21% |
| AGXArgan, Inc. | $5B | 29.1× | 22.4× | 20.9% | 15.1% | 39% |
| CSWCSW Industrials, Inc. | $5B | 40.5× | 20.1× | 42.4% | 10.3% | 11% |
| CXTCrane NXT, Co. | $3B | 19.8× | 13.8× | 42.1% | 7.8% | 11% |
| FELEFranklin Electric Co., Inc. | $4B | 27.5× | 16.3× | 35.5% | 7.1% | 12% |
| KAIKadant Inc. | $3B | 29.9× | 12.6× | 44.4% | 9.5% | 11% |
| MDUMDU Resources Group, Inc. | $4B | 19.4× | 13.0× | 42.4% | 10.8% | 7% |
| WSCWillScot Holdings Corporation | $3B | — | 19.7× | 48.4% | -3.0% | -7% |
The median is of the 6 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 46.4% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.