Mueller Water Products, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Mueller Water Products remains a buy at $21.87 as of 12 Oct, trading at a 15.3x P/E and 9.8x EV/EBITDA — roughly 46% and 24% discounts to peer medians — despite operating margin expanding from 9.0% in FY2022 to 18.2% in FY2025 and diluted EPS nearly tripling from $0.48 to $1.22 over the same period.
Quarterly momentum persists, with Q3 FY2026 EPS of $0.43 beating consensus by 27.6% and revenue growing 4.1% YoY, while the MACD histogram has turned positive near a 52-week low, suggesting the technical downtrend may be exhausting. The CFO transition announced October 12 introduces near-term execution risk, but resilient municipal water infrastructure demand and disciplined cost management support the margin expansion thesis at an attractive valuation.
What could go wrong
- Insider selling pressure. Over the trailing 24 months insiders net sold 643,165 shares for $16.2M, including CEO Paul McAndrew selling 40,000 shares at $26.39 on 10 Aug — persistent dispositions near recent highs contrast with the stock's decline to $21.87.
- Technical downtrend. Stock at $21.87 trades below both the 50-day MA of $23.71 and 200-day MA of $26.05, and hit a new 52-week low of $21.68 on 23 Sep, indicating sustained bearish momentum despite an improving MACD histogram.
- CFO transition risk. Michael Morgan was appointed CFO effective October 28, 2026, replacing Melissa Rasmussen; leadership transitions during a period of margin expansion introduce execution uncertainty.
- Residential construction softness. While municipal repair demand is resilient, softness in residential construction could limit revenue growth acceleration if that end market does not recover.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: peer comparison, 12 Oct · FY22 and FY25 fundamentals · Q3 FY26 results and earnings vs estimates · Q3 FY26 results. Orin's read on MWA; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 13.1% over twelve months, from $25.83 on 27 Oct 2025 to $22.44 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $30.37 on 13 Apr 2026; the last close is 26.1% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 5.0M, on 18 Sep 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All MWA filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $663.5M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $298.9M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $181.7M | 0.0% |
| State Street | $163.5M | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $129.9M | 0.0% |
| Franklin Resources | $123.3M | 0.0% |
| Morgan Stanley | $58.7M | 0.0% |
| Charles Schwab Investment Management | $48.4M | 0.0% |
| Northern Trust | $43.7M | 0.0% |
| Invesco | $42.8M | 0.0% |
71 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 199 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$16.2M. Of the 50 on hand, 5 were open-market purchases and 12 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about MWA
Orin answers questions about MWA from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 17.2× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close) — lower than in all 5 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 23.1×); the typical Industrials company on the NYSE is at 33.7×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 17.2×below usual | 23.1× | 33.7× |
| P/S | 2.61×above usual | 2.17× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.8×below usual | 13.0× | — |
| P/B | 3.3×near usual | 3.5× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $26.25 (from $21 to $35) — 17% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$26.25
$21 – $35 · +17% against the last close
- 1 buy or overweight
- 1 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 17.2× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 6 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 26.6×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MWAMueller Water Products, Inc. | $4B | 17.2× | 10.8× | 37.9% | 15.0% | 20% |
| AGXArgan, Inc. | $5B | 26.5× | 20.3× | 20.9% | 15.1% | 39% |
| CSWCSW Industrials, Inc. | $5B | 40.9× | 20.3× | 42.4% | 10.3% | 11% |
| CXTCrane NXT, Co. | $3B | 26.6× | 13.5× | 41.2% | 6.9% | 10% |
| FELEFranklin Electric Co., Inc. | $4B | 21.8× | 14.6× | 35.4% | 8.8% | 14% |
| KAIKadant Inc. | $3B | 28.9× | 13.1× | 44.4% | 9.5% | 11% |
| MDUMDU Resources Group, Inc. | $4B | 19.9× | 11.8× | 41.4% | 10.3% | 7% |
| WSCWillScot Holdings Corporation | $3B | lost money | 15.0× | 49.7% | −2.6% | −7% |
- WSC: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 17.2× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now17.2×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Industrials companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 33.7× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now33.7×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $27 a share — 20% above the $22.35 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $27 | 20% above $22.35 |
| Levered | $25 | 14% above $22.35 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.