Nasdaq, Inc. NDAQ
Nasdaq, Inc. merits a buy as Q2 2026 revenue accelerated to $2.53B (+21.1% YoY) while FY2025 operating margin expanded to 28.4% and FCF reached $1.99B, with the company beating EPS estimates for eight consecutive quarters including a 8.7% surprise in Q2 2026. Smart money has shifted decisively positive, rising from a score of 0.05 as of 2025-12-31 to 0.53 as of 2026-06-30, signaling institutional accumulation that aligns with the stock trading constructively above its 50-day ($94.80) and 200-day ($90.64) moving averages.
The Kraken tokenization investment adds strategic optionality on top of already-strong core execution, and while the 27.5x P/E carries a 15.6% premium to the peer median of 23.8x, the growth trajectory and improving smart-money backdrop justify accumulation at $95.44.
What could go wrong
- Valuation premium. At 27.5x P/E and 19.5x EV/EBITDA, NDAQ trades at a 15.6% and 13.2% premium to peer medians, leaving little room for execution missteps.
- Persistent insider selling. Insiders net sold $99.98M of stock over 24 months with 101 dispositions versus 64 acquisitions and no cluster buys, all recent transactions coded as sales.
- Leverage. Total debt of $9.93B against equity of $12.23B as of FY2025 elevates financial risk if rates remain high or acquisition integration falters.
- Q1 2026 growth deceleration. Q1 2026 revenue grew only 2.25% YoY versus 21.1% in Q2 2026, suggesting quarterly volatility that could unsettle the premium multiple.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: quarterly_results, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · derived_metrics and fundamentals, fiscal year 2025 · earnings_surprises, period ended 2026-07-23 · smart_money, as of 2026-06-30. Orin's read on NDAQ; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All NDAQ filings| Form | Filed | What it says | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13G/A | 13 Aug | — | on file |
| 13G/A | 12 Aug | — | on file |
| 10-Q | 23 Jul | Nasdaq, Inc. reported total revenues of $2.532 billion for the three months ended June 30, 2026, an increase of 20.6% year-over-year. For the six months ended June 30, 2026, total… | read |
| 8-K | 23 Jul | Nasdaq, Inc. announced its second quarter 2026 financial results on July 23, 2026. The company also declared a quarterly cash dividend on the same date. The financial results and… | read |
| 8-K | 1 Jul | Nasdaq, Inc. entered into an Amended and Restated Credit Agreement on June 30, 2026, establishing a $1.5 billion senior unsecured five-year revolving credit facility maturing on… | read |
| 8-K | 16 Jun | Nasdaq, Inc. held its 2026 Annual | read |
| 13G | 14 May | — | on file |
| 13G | 30 Apr | — | on file |
Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Investor Ab | $4.6B | 32.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $2.5B | 0.1% of fund |
| Wellington Management Group Llp | $2.4B | 0.4% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.1B | 0.1% of fund |
| Massachusetts Financial Services /Ma/ | $1.8B | 0.6% of fund |
| State Street | $1.6B | 0.0% of fund |
94 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 166 Form 4 filings, net −$100.1M. Of the 50 on hand, 1 was an open-market purchase and 17 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about NDAQ
Orin answers questions about NDAQ from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 27.2× | 29.4× | 21.6× |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.3× | 20.6× | — |
| P/S | 6.07× | 5.92× | — |
| P/B | 4.4× | 4.5× | — |
Its P/E sits 20th percentile of its own last 5 years (−0.81σ from its own mean).
11.6%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $2.0B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$113
$110 – $120 · +22% against today's price
- 22 buy or overweight
- 13 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NDAQNasdaq, Inc. | $53B | 27.2× | 19.3× | 59.4% | 22.6% | 16% |
| CMECME Group Inc. | $97B | 22.7× | 18.3× | 81.9% | 63.1% | 16% |
| FDSFactSet Research Systems Inc. | $10B | 17.8× | 11.4× | 51.4% | 23.2% | 27% |
| ICEIntercontinental Exchange, Inc. | $88B | 22.1× | 15.4× | 73.4% | 30.0% | 14% |
| MCOMoody's Corporation | $81B | 29.6× | 21.8× | 71.9% | 34.3% | 80% |
| MSCIMSCI Inc. | $40B | 30.6× | 22.8× | 83.0% | 40.7% | -54% |
| SPGIS&P Global Inc. | $119B | 24.5× | 15.9× | 70.9% | 30.5% | 15% |
The median is of the 6 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 15.4% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $63 | $86.98 · −27% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $59 | $86.98 · −32% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.