Nordson Corporation NDSN
Nordson's operational story is genuinely improving — Q3 FY2026 earnings beat estimates with ATS segment growth of 28%, raised full-year guidance, and a 15% dividend increase marking 63 consecutive years of increases — but the stock at $324.59 is pricing in much of that good news at a 32.69x P/E (18.8% above the peer median of 27.52x) and a 6.07x P/S (66.3% above the peer median of 3.65x). FY2025 fundamentals show solid but unspectacular 3.78% revenue growth and a 23.68% FCF margin generating $661M in free cash flow, while total debt declined from $2.40B to $2.16B.
With the stock trading above both the 50-day ($302.75) and 200-day ($277.06) moving averages and RSI at 60, momentum is bullish but the valuation premium and persistent insider net selling of $12.06M over 24 months argue for waiting for a better entry rather than chasing at these levels.
What could go wrong
- Valuation compression. At 32.69x P/E and 6.07x P/S — 18.8% and 66.3% above peer medians respectively — any disappointment in growth acceleration could trigger a sharp de-rating, as noted by Seeking Alpha's 'priced for perfection' characterization.
- Insider selling persists. Over the trailing 24 months, insiders net sold $12.06M in value across 156 transactions with 104 dispositions versus 52 acquisitions, and recent activity shows the CFO and GC continuing to sell into strength.
- Semiconductor cyclicality. The ATS segment's 28% growth is tied to AI chip and semiconductor demand; any slowdown in capex spending or panel-level packaging adoption could reverse the growth inflection driving the elevated multiple.
- Leverage remains elevated. Total debt of $2.16B against stockholders' equity of $3.04B as of FY2025 leaves the balance sheet less flexible than peers if end-market conditions deteriorate.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP FY2025 annual + derived_metrics · FMP FY2024 and FY2025 annual · peer_relative composite · technicals as of 2026-08-28. Orin's read on NDSN; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All NDSN filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.0B | 0.0% of fund |
| State Street | $899.9M | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $712.0M | 0.0% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $573.4M | 0.0% of fund |
| Morgan Stanley | $427.8M | 0.0% of fund |
| Invesco | $397.8M | 0.0% of fund |
79 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 159 Form 4 filings, net −$12.4M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 32 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about NDSN
Orin answers questions about NDSN from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 32.4× | 27.1× | 44.5× |
| EV/EBITDA | 20.7× | 17.8× | — |
| P/S | 6.01× | 5.01× | — |
| P/B | 5.5× | 4.9× | — |
Its P/E sits 80th percentile of its own last 5 years (+1.32σ from its own mean).
11.8%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.7B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$360
$345 – $375 · +12% against today's price
- 13 buy or overweight
- 8 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NDSNNordson Corporation | $18B | 32.4× | 20.7× | 55.3% | 18.6% | 18% |
| CRCrane Company | $12B | 35.3× | 22.5× | 41.7% | 13.0% | 16% |
| DCIDonaldson Company, Inc. | $10B | 22.1× | 17.9× | 34.6% | 11.7% | 28% |
| GGGGraco Inc. | $13B | 24.3× | 16.7× | 52.6% | 23.5% | 20% |
| IEXIDEX Corporation | $17B | 33.0× | 20.1× | 44.7% | 14.5% | 13% |
| ITTITT Inc. | $19B | 41.4× | 24.8× | 34.6% | 8.9% | 10% |
| LECOLincoln Electric Holdings, Inc. | $14B | 26.3× | 17.3× | 36.0% | 12.4% | 37% |
| WCCWESCO International, Inc. | $18B | 25.0× | 14.9× | 21.4% | 2.8% | 14% |
| WSOWatsco, Inc. | $13B | 28.1× | 18.4× | 27.9% | 6.5% | 17% |
The median is of the 8 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 19.1% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $231 | $282.98 · −19% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $254 | $282.98 · −10% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.