NextEra Energy, Inc. NEE
NextEra Energy remains a mixed picture as of fiscal year 2025 — revenue recovered 11% YoY to $27.5B and gross margin expanded to 62.8%, but EPS declined for a second consecutive year to $3.29 (from $3.60 in 2023) while total debt climbed to $95.6B from $73.2B over the same span. The stock at $81.84 trades 13.5% below the peer median P/E of 21.2x and sits in deeply oversold territory (RSI 26.4), yet remains below both its 50-day ($86.93) and 200-day ($87.86) moving averages with a negative MACD histogram.
Smart money has turned slightly negative at -0.0855 as of Q2 2026 (down from +0.1479 in Q1 2026) with fund count dropping from 67 to 63, and two years of contracting EPS alongside a surging debt load argue for patience until an earnings inflection is confirmed.
What could go wrong
- Debt burden. Total debt reached $95.6B as of FY2025, up from $73.2B in FY2023 — rising interest expense could further pressure EPS, which has already fallen for two consecutive years.
- EPS erosion. Diluted EPS declined from $3.60 (2023) to $3.37 (2024) to $3.29 (2025), with net income down 1.6% YoY in 2025 despite revenue growth of 11%.
- Smart money outflows. SM score turned negative at -0.0855 as of Q2 2026 after three consecutive positive quarters, with fund count falling from 67 to 63.
- Bearish technical trend. Stock at $81.84 trades below both the 50-day ($86.93) and 200-day ($87.86) moving averages; MACD histogram is negative at -0.264 despite RSI at 26.4 suggesting oversold conditions.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP FY2025 annual + derived_metrics · FMP FY2023 and FY2025 annual · FMP FY2023 and FY2025 annual · Technicals as of 2026-08-28. Orin's read on NEE; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All NEE filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $12.0B | 0.3% of fund |
| State Street | $10.4B | 0.3% of fund |
| Jpmorgan Chase & | $10.3B | 0.6% of fund |
| Morgan Stanley | $5.6B | 0.3% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $5.5B | 0.2% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $4.4B | 0.2% of fund |
148 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 150 Form 4 filings, net −$963K. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 7 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about NEE
Orin answers questions about NEE from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 17.2× | 24.5× | 25.9× |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.1× | 16.3× | — |
| P/S | 5.54× | 6.10× | — |
| P/B | 2.8× | 3.1× | — |
Its P/E sits 20th percentile of its own last 5 years (−1.05σ from its own mean).
20.2%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $3.2B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$102
$91 – $114 · +33% against today's price
- 24 buy or overweight
- 11 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEENextEra Energy, Inc. | $161B | 17.2× | 15.1× | 71.8% | 32.0% | 17% |
| AEPAmerican Electric Power Company, Inc. | $64B | 20.3× | 13.7× | 49.0% | 13.9% | 10% |
| DDominion Energy, Inc. | $54B | 21.2× | 14.5× | 49.3% | 13.9% | 9% |
| DUKDuke Energy Corporation | $89B | 17.1× | 11.1× | 68.2% | 15.7% | 10% |
| ETREntergy Corporation | $46B | 25.1× | 13.8× | 38.9% | 13.5% | 10% |
| GEVGE Vernova Inc. | $254B | 27.0× | 28.2× | 20.2% | 23.0% | 83% |
| SOThe Southern Company | $96B | 20.0× | 12.0× | 43.4% | 15.4% | 13% |
| XELXcel Energy Inc. | $44B | 19.3× | 12.6× | 48.8% | 15.3% | 10% |
The median is of the 7 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 15.3% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $136 | $85.23 · +60% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $34 | $85.23 · −60% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.