NextEra Energy, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
NextEra Energy is a buy as the earnings recovery gains credibility, with three consecutive quarterly EPS beats in 2026 and H1 2026 revenue growth of 11–12% YoY.
The stock's 10.5% three-month pullback to $78.86 (as of 20 Oct) has brought the P/E to 17.6x, a 15.6% discount to the peer median of 20.9x, creating an attractive entry for a company positioned to benefit from rising electricity demand tied to AI and electrification. The principal concern remains the balance sheet — total debt reached $95.6B at FY2025 against FCF of just $3.2B — but the operational reacceleration, with Q2 2026 EPS of $1.51 and Q3 2026 EPS of $1.24 beating the $1.20 estimate, suggests the two-year EPS decline from $3.60 in 2023 to $3.29 in 2025 is reversing.
What could go wrong
- Leverage and FCF pressure. Total debt rose to $95.6B at FY2025 from $82.3B in FY2024 while FCF fell to $3.2B from $4.7B, and capex of $9.3B continues to outstrip operating cash flow growth, raising financing-cost risk if rates stay elevated.
- Valuation premium on revenue. Despite the P/E discount, NEE carries an 87.9% P/S premium and a 17.0% EV/EBITDA premium to the peer median, meaning the market is pricing in growth that the two-year EPS decline has not yet fully delivered.
- Insider selling. Over the past 24 months insiders net sold 340,806 shares for $28.4M with zero open-market acquisitions of common stock, a persistent negative signal.
- Smart money outflows. The smart money score declined from 0.08 as of 31 Dec 2025 to 0.02 as of 30 Jun, with fund count dropping from 64 to 66 but conviction weakening.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Q2 2026 results · earnings vs estimates, 21 Oct · FY25 fundamentals · peer comparison. Orin's read on NEE; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 4.2% over twelve months, from $86.03 on 27 Oct 2025 to $82.42 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $97.88 on 30 Apr 2026; the last close is 15.8% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 40.0M, on 18 May 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All NEE filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $16.4B | 0.2% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $12.0B | 0.3% |
| State Street | $10.4B | 0.3% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $10.3B | 0.6% |
| Morgan Stanley | $5.6B | 0.3% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $5.5B | 0.2% |
| Geode Capital Management | $4.4B | 0.2% |
| Franklin Resources | $3.9B | 0.8% |
| Norges Bank | $2.8B | 0.3% |
| Bank of America | $2.6B | 0.2% |
151 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 154 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$28.4M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 7 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about NEE
Orin answers questions about NEE from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 14.8× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — lower than in all 5 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 24.3×); the typical Utilities company on the NYSE is at 18.5×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 14.8×below usual | 24.3× | 18.5× |
| P/S | 5.93×near usual | 6.10× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.3×near usual | 16.3× | — |
| P/B | 2.8×below usual | 3.1× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $92.64 (from $56 to $110) — 12% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$92.64
$56 – $110 · +12% against the last close
- 9 buy or overweight
- 4 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 14.8× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 9 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 21.3×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEENextEra Energy, Inc. | $173B | 14.8× | 16.3× | 62.4% | 39.9% | 20% |
| AEPAmerican Electric Power Company, Inc. | $71B | 22.4× | 14.4× | 49.0% | 13.9% | 10% |
| DDominion Energy, Inc. | $57B | 22.6× | 14.5× | 49.3% | 13.9% | 9% |
| DUKDuke Energy Corporation | $101B | 19.0× | 11.1× | 60.5% | 15.9% | 10% |
| EDConsolidated Edison, Inc. | $45B | 19.3× | 9.5× | 65.5% | 12.7% | 9% |
| ETREntergy Corporation | $52B | 27.4× | 14.5× | 38.9% | 13.5% | 10% |
| EXCExelon Corporation | $46B | 16.3× | 10.7× | 24.5% | 11.0% | 10% |
| PEGPublic Service Enterprise Group Incorporated | $36B | 18.0× | 13.5× | 85.4% | 16.0% | 12% |
| SOThe Southern Company | $107B | 21.3× | 12.0× | 49.7% | 16.0% | 13% |
| XELXcel Energy Inc. | $49B | 21.3× | 13.3× | 48.8% | 15.3% | 10% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 14.8× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now14.8×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Utilities companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 18.5× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now18.5×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $114 a share — 38% above the $82.20 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $114 | 38% above $82.20 |
| Levered | $27 | 68% below $82.20 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.