NGL Energy Partners LP NGL
NGL Energy Partners is showing real operational momentum—Water Solutions volumes grew 43% in the latest quarter, management raised full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance to $725–$735 million, and the LEX II Extension project is set to drive roughly 15% organic water volume growth by fiscal Q4—but the balance sheet remains the dominant risk, with $3.357B in total debt against just $25.9M of stockholders' equity as of the fiscal year ended 2026-03-31 and a net loss of $180M. The stock has already re-rated sharply to $17.40 (as of 2026-08-18), well above the 200-day MA of $13.04, pricing in much of the operational improvement.
Insider activity is encouraging in direction—all acquisitions, zero dispositions over 24 months—but the July 2026 transactions were grant-based (code A), not open-market purchases, which tempers the signal.
What could go wrong
- Balance sheet fragility. Total debt of $3.357B against stockholders' equity of just $25.9M as of FY2026 (ended 2026-03-31) leaves essentially no equity cushion; any EBITDA shortfall could trigger covenant or refinancing pressure.
- Persistent net losses. Net loss of $180M in FY2026 (ended 2026-03-31) with a net margin of -5.71%, following a net loss of $143.8M in FY2024; the company has not demonstrated sustained profitability despite margin improvement.
- Valuation re-rating already priced. Stock at $17.40 as of 2026-08-18 trades well above both the 50-day MA of $16.03 and 200-day MA of $13.04, with RSI at 57.6; much of the Water Solutions growth and guidance raise may already be reflected.
- Revenue decline trend. Revenue has declined year-over-year for multiple consecutive fiscal years, including -9.02% in FY2026 and -16.47% in FY2025, reflecting exposure to commodity-price-sensitive throughput volumes.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP fundamentals, fiscal year ended 2026-03-31 · FMP fundamentals and derived_metrics, fiscal year ended 2026-03-31 · Seeking Alpha news article, published 2026-08-05 · Technical data as of 2026-08-18. Orin's read on NGL; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All NGL filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Invesco | $311.7M | 0.0% of fund |
| Morgan Stanley | $162.2M | 0.0% of fund |
| Goldman Sachs Group | $136.1M | 0.0% of fund |
| Bank Of America /De/ | $127.0M | 0.0% of fund |
| Tpg Gp A | $92.1M | 1.8% of fund |
| Jpmorgan Chase & | $45.3M | 0.0% of fund |
19 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 18 Form 4 filings, net $2.1M. Of the 18 on hand, 11 were open-market purchases and 1 a sale— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
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Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA | 7.6× | — | — |
| P/S | 0.54× | — | — |
| P/B | 58.6× | — | — |
2.1%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.1B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$2
$2 – $2 · −87% against today's price
- 6 buy or overweight
- 9 hold
- 2 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.