NGL Energy Partners LP
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
NGL Energy Partners delivered a sharp operational inflection in Q1 FY2027 (quarter ended 30 Jun), with revenue of $990.0M (+59% YoY), net income of $78.7M, and diluted EPS of $0.48 versus a $0.11 estimate, while annual operating margin expanded to 12.2% in FY2026 from 9.5% in FY2025.
However, the balance sheet remains the dominant constraint: total debt of $3.357B against just $25.9M of stockholders' equity as of the fiscal year ended 31 Mar, and CEO Krimbill sold 300,000 units at $17.00 on 25 Aug even as the stock has pulled back to $14.74 with an RSI of 36.65. The turnaround is genuine but the extreme leverage and mixed insider signals argue for patience rather than adding at current levels.
What could go wrong
- Extreme leverage. Total debt of $3.357B against stockholders' equity of just $25.9M as of FY2026 (ended 31 Mar) leaves minimal cushion for any operational setback or interest rate pressure.
- CEO unit sale. CEO Krimbill sold 300,000 units at $17.00 on 25 Aug, a negative signal from the top executive even as the stock has since declined to $14.74.
- Revenue decline trend. Annual revenue has fallen from $7.95B in FY2022 to $3.16B in FY2026, and the Q1 FY2027 rebound, while strong at +59% YoY, comes off a very low comparable base.
- Minimal institutional interest. Smart money score of 0.00 with only 15 funds as of 30 Jun suggests limited conviction from sophisticated investors.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: results and earnings vs estimates, quarter to 30 Jun · FY26 fundamentals · FY25 and FY26 fundamentals · insider trades. Orin's read on NGL; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 155% over twelve months, from $6.35 on 27 Oct 2025 to $16.20 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $18.97 on 31 Aug 2026; the last close is 14.6% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 2.6M, on 27 Jan 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
- Rose flags: large share sales by the company's own officers and directors, from the Form 4 each one files after trading.
On file
All NGL filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Invesco | $311.7M | 0.0% |
| Morgan Stanley | $162.2M | 0.0% |
| Goldman Sachs Group | $136.1M | 0.0% |
| Bank of America | $127.0M | 0.0% |
| TPG GP A | $92.1M | 1.8% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $45.3M | 0.0% |
| Nomura Holdings | $39.8M | 0.0% |
| Mirae Asset Global ETFs Holdings | $22.3M | 0.0% |
| Brown Advisory | $3.6M | 0.0% |
| Citadel Advisors | $3.1M | 0.0% |
19 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 18 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net $1.9M. Of the 18 on hand, 11 were open-market purchases and 1 a sale — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about NGL
Orin answers questions about NGL from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
It lost money over the last 12 months, so it has no P/E (Thu 5 Nov close). It is priced at 0.48× its yearly sales.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | lost money | — | 17.6× |
| P/S | 0.48× | — | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.0×below usual | 9.9× | — |
| P/B | 0.5× | — | — |
- P/E: lost money — no P/E over the last 12 months.
- P/S: no usual level — it ran from 0.04× to 0.50× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- P/B: no usual level — it ran from 0.2× to 60.5× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
Few analysts publish on it: 17 firms have ever rated it. Every 12-month price target on file is $2 (the low and the high are the same, so it may be a single analyst's) — 88% below the Tue 27 Oct close price. With so few, it is not a consensus; it is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$2
$2 – $2 · −88% against the last close
- 6 buy or overweight
- 9 hold
- 2 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
It has lost money and has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so it has no P/E history.
- Nowlost money
- Now: no P/E — it lost money over the last 12 months.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Energy companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 17.6× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now17.6×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $23 a share — 43% above the $16.09 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $23 | 43% above $16.09 |
| Levered | $27 | 69% above $16.09 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.