NIKE, Inc. NKE
Nike's turnaround remains stalled: FY2026 revenue of $46.4B was essentially flat versus FY2025's $46.3B and still 10% below the FY2024 peak of $51.4B, while EPS declined to $2.10 from $2.16 and free cash flow fell 33% to $2.2B from $3.3B. At $41.23 the stock trades at 19.6x trailing earnings — a 71% premium to the peer median P/E of 11.4x — despite deteriorating fundamentals and a bearish technical setup below both the 50-day ($42.90) and 200-day ($53.37) moving averages.
A cluster buy by four insiders in April 2026 (~$3.7M near $42) signals confidence, but multiple executives including the CFO and Nike President sold shares in early August 2026, muddying the signal. Hold until revenue growth re-accelerates and FCF stabilizes.
What could go wrong
- Turnaround stalls further. FY2026 revenue was flat YoY at $46.4B and EPS declined to $2.10 from $2.16, suggesting the recovery is not gaining traction despite strategic efforts.
- FCF deterioration. Free cash flow fell to $2.2B in FY2026 from $3.3B in FY2025 and $6.6B in FY2024, raising concerns about dividend sustainability (Motley Fool flagged NKE as a potential dividend cutter).
- Valuation premium vs peers. NKE trades at 19.6x P/E and 14.3x EV/EBITDA, a 71% and 108% premium to peer medians respectively, despite weaker growth — limiting downside protection.
- Insider selling. Multiple executives (CFO Friend, President Montagne, COO, CLO) sold shares in August 2026 at ~$41.60–$42.05, offsetting the positive April cluster buy signal.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Orin fundamentals FY2026/FY2025/FY2024 · Orin fundamentals FY2026/FY2025 · peer_relative composite · insider transactions. Orin's read on NKE; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All NKE filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $3.2B | 0.1% of fund |
| Capital World Investors | $3.0B | 0.3% of fund |
| State Street | $2.6B | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.9B | 0.1% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.2B | 0.1% of fund |
| Wellington Management Group Llp | $911.7M | 0.2% of fund |
117 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 144 Form 4 filings, net $81.2M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 9 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about NKE
Orin answers questions about NKE from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 17.2× | 31.0× | 79.6× |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.1× | 24.8× | — |
| P/S | 1.15× | 3.19× | — |
| P/B | 3.6× | 11.7× | — |
Its P/E sits below all 5 of the last 5 years (−3.42σ from its own mean).
10.4%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $2.2B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$48
$30 – $75 · +32% against today's price
- 33 buy or overweight
- 32 hold
- 6 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NKENIKE, Inc. | $53B | 17.2× | 12.1× | 42.9% | 6.7% | 22% |
| DECKDeckers Outdoor Corporation | $11B | 11.1× | 6.9× | 57.8% | 18.4% | 41% |
| LULULululemon Athletica Inc. | $12B | 8.4× | 4.8× | 56.1% | 12.8% | 30% |
The median is of the 2 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 75.7% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $48 | $44.02 · +9% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $42 | $44.02 · −5% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.