NIKE, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Nike's stock has bounced from late-September lows to $37.88 with improving technicals (RSI recovered to 62.8, MACD histogram positive at +0.495, price above the 50-day MA of $37.37), but the fundamental picture remains weak.
Q1 FY2027 revenue declined 4.3% YoY to $11.2B, extending a multi-quarter deceleration from +1.1% growth a year earlier, while FY2026 operating margin stayed compressed at 8.2% versus 12.3% in FY2024. The stock trades at 18.1x earnings—a 76% premium to the peer median of 10.3x—on deteriorating profitability, though the PS ratio of 1.23x sits below the peer median of 1.60x, and smart money has been steadily exiting with the SM score falling from 0.24 as of Q3 2024 to 0.007 as of Q2 2026. The recovery appears technical rather than fundamental; hold pending evidence of revenue stabilization.
What could go wrong
- Revenue decline accelerates. Q1 FY2027 revenue already fell 4.3% YoY, and news reports indicate management expects FY2027 sales to decline, suggesting the quarterly trajectory worsens further from here.
- Margin compression persists. FY2026 gross margin of 42.9% remains well below the 44.6% level of FY2024, and operating margin at 8.2% is less than half the 14.3% seen in FY2022, limiting earnings recovery potential.
- Valuation de-rating risk. At 18.1x earnings and 13.2x EV/EBITDA—premiums of 76% and 111% to peer medians respectively—the stock remains expensive relative to peers despite a 40%+ decline in 2026, leaving room for further multiple compression.
- Institutional outflows continue. Smart money score has declined from 0.24 as of 30 Sep 2024 to 0.007 as of 30 Jun, and insiders are net sellers with -261,089 shares disposed over 24 months.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: results, quarter to 31 Aug · FY24 and FY26 fundamentals · peer comparison, 20 Oct · 13F holdings, 30 Jun. Orin's read on NKE; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 45.2% over twelve months, from $68.59 on 27 Oct 2025 to $37.56 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $68.59 on 27 Oct 2025; the last close is 45.2% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 142.7M, on 2 Oct 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All NKE filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $3.4B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $3.2B | 0.1% |
| Capital World Investors | $3.0B | 0.3% |
| State Street | $2.6B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.9B | 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.2B | 0.1% |
| Wellington Management Group | $911.7M | 0.2% |
| FMR | $868.9M | 0.0% |
| Morgan Stanley | $824.2M | 0.0% |
| Invesco | $611.6M | 0.0% |
120 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 145 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$20.2M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 9 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about NKE
Orin answers questions about NKE from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 18.0× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — lower than in all 5 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 27.9×); the typical Consumer Cyclical company on the NYSE is at 20.4×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 18.0×below usual | 27.9× | 20.4× |
| P/S | 1.22×below usual | 2.81× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.1×below usual | 18.8× | — |
| P/B | 3.7×below usual | 10.0× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $37.15 (from $19 to $60) — 1% below the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$37.15
$19 – $60 · −1% against the last close
- 9 buy or overweight
- 16 hold
- 4 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 18.0× its last 12 months of profit. Only 2 of the 2 companies it is compared to made a profit (DECK 10.7×, LULU 8.6×), so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NKENIKE, Inc. | $56B | 18.0× | 13.1× | 43.1% | 6.7% | 21% |
| DECKDeckers Outdoor Corporation | $11B | 10.7× | 7.2× | 58.9% | 19.0% | 44% |
| LULULululemon Athletica Inc. | $12B | 8.6× | 5.0× | 56.1% | 12.8% | 30% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 18.0× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now18.0×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Consumer Cyclical companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 20.4× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now20.4×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $49 a share — 32% above the $37.42 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $49 | 32% above $37.42 |
| Levered | $45 | 20% above $37.42 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.