ServiceNow, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
ServiceNow remains a best-in-class compounder with FY2025 revenue of $13.28B growing 20.9% YoY, operating margin expanding to 13.7%, and FCF of $4.58B, but the 90.3x P/E — a 129% premium to the peer median of 39.4x — prices in near-flawless execution.
Q2 2026 revenue growth accelerated to 24% YoY and the Nvidia-backed AI Passport and EmployeeWorks launches reinforce the AI monetization narrative, yet persistent insider selling (net -40,207 shares over 24 months) and a declining smart money score from 0.23 to 0.033 over two quarters temper enthusiasm. The risk/reward at $145.36, above both the 50-day ($135.26) and 200-day ($114.99) moving averages, does not justify an upgrade while the valuation premium remains this extreme.
What could go wrong
- Valuation compression. At 90.3x P/E and 10.2x P/S, NOW trades at a 129% premium to the peer median P/E and 120% premium on P/S; any growth deceleration or AI monetization disappointment could trigger a sharp multiple contraction.
- AI financing sentiment. Enterprise software stocks including NOW dropped ~5% on October 16, 2026 amid spreading AI financing worries, showing the stock's sensitivity to macro AI sentiment shifts.
- Insider selling persistence. Over the trailing 24 months, insiders net sold 40,207 shares worth $27.06M across 625 transactions with only 2 acquisitions, a consistent disposition pattern that could signal reduced internal confidence at these valuations.
- Smart money fading. Smart money score declined from 0.23 as of Q4 2025 to 0.03 as of Q2 2026, with fund count dropping from 68 to 67, suggesting institutional conviction is waning at current levels.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FY25 fundamentals · peer comparison · Q2 2026 results · insider trades. Orin's read on NOW; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 18.2% over twelve months, from $189.26 on 27 Oct 2025 to $154.78 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $189.26 on 27 Oct 2025; the last close is 18.2% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 148.1M, on 15 Dec 2025).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All NOW filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $9.5B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $6.7B | 0.1% |
| State Street | $4.9B | 0.1% |
| Morgan Stanley | $2.6B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.5B | 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $2.4B | 0.1% |
| T. Rowe Price Associates | $1.6B | 0.2% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $1.4B | 0.1% |
| Norges Bank | $1.2B | 0.1% |
| FMR | $1.1B | 0.0% |
145 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 625 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$27.1M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 3 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about NOW
Orin answers questions about NOW from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 96.1× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close); the typical Technology company on the NYSE is at 39.5×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 96.1× | — | 39.5× |
| P/S | 10.9×below usual | 16.1× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 47.6×below usual | 91.9× | — |
| P/B | 12.8×below usual | 18.9× | — |
- P/E: no usual level — it ran from 83.1× to 564× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $170 (from $118 to $266) — 10% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$170
$118 – $266 · +10% against the last close
- 32 buy or overweight
- 2 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 96.1× its last 12 months of profit. Only 1 of the 1 companies it is compared to made a profit (WDAY 41.5×), so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NOWServiceNow, Inc. | $160B | 96.1× | 47.6× | 74.8% | 11.3% | 14% |
| WDAYWorkday, Inc. | $50B | 41.5× | 31.5× | 75.8% | 12.3% | 17% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 96.1× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now96.1×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Technology companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 39.5× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now39.5×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $102 a share — 34% below the $155.22 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $102 | 34% below $155.22 |
| Levered | $171 | 10% above $155.22 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.