Napco Security Technologies, Inc. NSSC
Napco Security Technologies remains a hold after reporting record fiscal 2026 Q4 and full-year revenue on 2026-08-24, supported by recurring service revenue growth, but the stock at $37.59 still trades at 31.1x trailing earnings versus a peer median of 18.6x — a 67% premium — and 6.6x sales versus 1.3x for peers. FY2025 fundamentals showed revenue declining 3.8% and EPS falling 11.2% to $1.19, and while FY2026 results appear to reverse that trend, net insider selling of $19.7M over 24 months and a smart money score near zero at 0.0011 as of 2026-06-30 temper enthusiasm.
The franchise is high-quality with 55.6% gross margin, 28.3% FCF margin, and only $5.3M of debt, but the valuation premium requires sustained double-digit revenue growth to justify, and the leadership transition from founder Dick Soloway to new CEO Kevin Buchel adds execution risk.
What could go wrong
- Valuation compression. At 31.1x PE and 6.6x PS versus peer medians of 18.6x and 1.3x respectively, any disappointment in FY2026 growth could trigger a sharp de-rating.
- Persistent insider selling. Net insider dispositions of 455,350 shares worth $19.7M over 24 months, with 28 dispositions versus 16 acquisitions, signal limited insider confidence at current levels.
- Leadership transition risk. Founder Dick Soloway moved to Executive Chairman while Kevin Buchel became CEO and President as of the Q4 2026 announcement; strategy or execution shifts under new leadership could disrupt momentum.
- Institutional interest waning. Fund count declined from 47 in Q1 2026 to 44 in Q2 2026, and Bank of America cut its position by 28.6% in Q1 2026, suggesting reduced institutional conviction.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: peer_relative composite · derived_metrics FY2025 · derived_metrics and fundamentals FY2025 · insider summary. Orin's read on NSSC; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All NSSC filings| Form | Filed | What it says | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10-K | 24 Aug | Napco Security Technologies, Inc. | read |
| 8-K | 24 Aug | Napco Security Technologies, Inc. | read |
| 13G | 4 Aug | — | on file |
| 13G | 31 Jul | — | on file |
| 8-K | 8 Jul | NAPCO Security Technologies, Inc. | read |
| 13G | 7 May | — | on file |
| 10-Q | 5 May | Napco Security Technologies, Inc. | read |
| 8-K | 4 May | Napco Security Technologies, Inc. | read |
Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $58.0M | 0.0% of fund |
| State Street | $57.4M | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $56.8M | 0.0% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $45.5M | 0.0% of fund |
| Wellington Management Group Llp | $41.9M | 0.0% of fund |
| Morgan Stanley | $36.5M | 0.0% of fund |
54 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 46 Form 4 filings, net −$38.0M. Of the 46 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 9 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about NSSC
Orin answers questions about NSSC from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 29.7× | — | 44.5× |
| EV/EBITDA | 23.3× | — | — |
| P/S | 6.35× | — | — |
| P/B | 6.7× | — | — |
8.8%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.1B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$52
$52 – $52 · +45% against today's price
- 8 buy or overweight
- 3 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSSCNapco Security Technologies, Inc. | $1B | 29.7× | 23.3× | 59.2% | 21.3% | 24% |
| DCODucommun Incorporated | $3B | — | 493.4× | 27.2% | -2.9% | -4% |
| EVLVEvolv Technologies Holdings, Inc. | $878M | — | 34.2× | 50.0% | -3.0% | -5% |
| ICFIICF International, Inc. | $2B | 17.2× | 11.8× | 35.6% | 4.9% | 9% |
| JBIJanus International Group, Inc. | $581M | 17.6× | 2.5× | 34.8% | 3.7% | 6% |
| TNCTennant Company | $1B | 65.9× | 14.8× | 38.8% | 1.5% | 3% |
| WLDNWilldan Group, Inc. | $1B | 18.4× | 16.1× | 37.8% | 8.8% | 21% |
The median is of the 4 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 65.2% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.