NetApp, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
NetApp's Q1 FY2027 results (ended 31 Jul) confirm a genuine revenue acceleration to $2.025B, up 29.9% YoY, on top of FY2026 operating margin of 24.5% and FCF margin of 27.0%.
However, at $226.27 the stock trades at 29.1x earnings and 5.6x sales — 37% and 89% above peer medians respectively — with RSI at 75.9 and CEO George Kurian selling 50,000 shares at $209.95 on September 29, 2026. The fundamental improvement is real, but the current setup does not favor new positions.
What could go wrong
- Valuation premium. PE of 29.1x sits 37% above the peer median of 21.2x; PS of 5.6x is 89% above the peer median of 2.9x, leaving little room for execution missteps.
- Overbought technicals. RSI-14 at 75.9 as of 2 Oct, with the stock at $226.27 versus a 50-day moving average of $192.33 and 200-day of $138.76 — extended on both timeframes.
- Persistent insider selling. 24-month insider net value is -$85.6M; CEO George Kurian sold shares in multiple September 2026 transactions including 50,000 shares at $209.95 on September 29.
- Smart money cooling. Smart money score turned slightly negative at -0.02 as of the quarter ended 30 Jun, after sitting positive for several prior quarters.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: results, quarter to 31 Jul · FY26 fundamentals · technicals, 2 Oct · peer comparison. Orin's read on NTAP; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 94.2% over twelve months, from $117.19 on 27 Oct 2025 to $227.58 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $239.18 on 12 Oct 2026; the last close is 4.8% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 15.9M, on 29 May 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
- Rose flags: large share sales by the company's own officers and directors, from the Form 4 each one files after trading.
On file
All NTAP filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $2.9B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $2.0B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.9B | 0.1% |
| State Street | $1.5B | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $986.5M | 0.1% |
| Ameriprise Financial | $723.9M | 0.1% |
| Norges Bank | $645.5M | 0.1% |
| Wellington Management Group | $597.4M | 0.1% |
| Invesco | $478.1M | 0.0% |
| Goldman Sachs Group | $475.9M | 0.0% |
83 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 321 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$52.4M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 19 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about NTAP
Orin answers questions about NTAP from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 31.7× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in all 5 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 16.9×); the typical Technology company on the NASDAQ is at 46.1×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 31.7×above usual | 16.9× | 46.1× |
| P/S | 6.05×above usual | 2.75× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 21.3×above usual | 11.1× | — |
| P/B | 29.8×above usual | 17.3× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $219 (from $170 to $300) — 4% below the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$219
$170 – $300 · −4% against the last close
- 5 buy or overweight
- 10 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 31.7× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 8 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 20.6×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NTAPNetApp, Inc. | $45B | 31.7× | 21.3× | 70.6% | 19.2% | 114% |
| BLZEBackblaze, Inc. | $573M | lost money | 60.1× | 62.0% | −13.1% | −24% |
| DELLDell Technologies Inc. | $319B | 28.7× | 18.6× | 19.8% | 7.5% | n/m |
| HPEHewlett Packard Enterprise Company | $81B | 30.2× | 15.1× | 36.0% | 6.6% | 11% |
| IBMInternational Business Machines Corporation | $237B | 21.0× | 16.6× | 58.0% | 16.0% | 33% |
| NTNXNutanix, Inc. | $20B | 13.1× | 51.0× | 86.8% | 52.8% | n/m |
| ORCLOracle Corporation | $395B | 20.1× | 13.6× | 63.9% | 26.4% | 43% |
| SMCISuper Micro Computer, Inc. | $23B | 9.6× | 7.2× | 10.8% | 5.7% | 25% |
| STXSeagate Technology Holdings plc | $152B | 33.9× | 27.1× | 50.4% | 31.9% | 245% |
| WDCWestern Digital Corporation | $143B | 13.3× | 22.7× | 52.6% | 69.2% | 114% |
- BLZE: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- DELL, NTNX: return on equity is not meaningful (n/m) — book value is below zero.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 31.7× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now31.7×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Technology companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 46.1× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now46.1×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $73 a share — 68% below the $230.09 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $73 | 68% below $230.09 |
| Levered | $82 | 64% below $230.09 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.