Northern Trust Corporation
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Northern Trust's Q3 2026 results present a genuinely mixed picture: EPS of $3.51 beat the consensus estimate of $2.87 by 11.5%, extending a streak of positive earnings surprises, yet revenue collapsed 35.9% YoY to $2.29B and operating income fell to just $113.9M from $1.065B in Q2 2026, signaling a sharp deterioration in core profitability that net income alone masks.
The stock trades at a 10.9% PE discount and 11.3% PS discount to the peer median, with a newly announced buyback authorization and dividend providing support near the 200-day MA of $164.48 and an RSI of 35.9, but the Q3 revenue and operating-income breakdown warrants caution until the trend clarifies.
What could go wrong
- Revenue and operating income deterioration. Q3 2026 revenue fell 35.9% YoY to $2.29B and operating income dropped to $113.9M from $1.065B in Q2 2026, suggesting core earnings power may be weakening despite headline EPS strength.
- Persistent insider selling. Over the trailing 24 months, insiders net sold 144,507 shares worth $20.0M, with 28 dispositions versus 7 acquisitions, indicating limited insider conviction at current levels.
- FY2025 full-year decline. Fiscal 2025 revenue fell 9.9% YoY and net income declined 14.5%, with EPS down 10.5%, showing the Q3 2026 weakness is part of a broader deceleration rather than an isolated quarter.
- Technical breakdown risk. The stock at $165.44 sits below its 50-day MA of $178.65 and the MACD histogram is negative at -0.02; a break below the 200-day MA of $164.48 could trigger further selling.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Q3 2026 results · Q2–Q3 2026 results · earnings vs estimates, 21 Oct · peer comparison. Orin's read on NTRS; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 35.0% over twelve months, from $126.20 on 27 Oct 2025 to $170.35 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $191.47 on 17 Aug 2026; the last close is 11.0% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 3.3M, on 19 Dec 2025).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All NTRS filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $2.5B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $2.0B | 0.0% |
| State Street | $1.6B | 0.0% |
| FMR | $1.5B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.5B | 0.1% |
| Massachusetts Financial Services | $1.0B | 0.3% |
| Northern Trust | $965.6M | 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $892.9M | 0.0% |
| Invesco | $569.1M | 0.0% |
| AQR Capital Management | $511.1M | 0.2% |
95 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 236 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$23.5M. Of the 50 on hand, 1 was an open-market purchase and 8 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about NTRS
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Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 13.3× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 1 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 15.5×); the typical Financial Services company on the NASDAQ is at 20.4×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 13.3×below usual | 15.5× | 20.4× |
| P/S | 2.04×above usual | 1.79× | — |
| P/B | 2.3×above usual | 1.6× | — |
- P/S: for a bank, sales here are gross revenue — interest income plus non-interest revenue, before the interest it pays — so its P/S reads lower than it would on the net revenue in its filings.
- EV/EBITDA: not used for a lender — the debt in its enterprise value is mostly the deposits it lends out.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $186 (from $177 to $194) — 9% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$186
$177 – $194 · +9% against the last close
- 3 buy or overweight
- 9 hold
- 2 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 13.3× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 6 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 14.8×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NTRSNorthern Trust Corporation | $31B | 13.3× | n/a | n/a | 15.9% | 18% |
| AMPAmeriprise Financial, Inc. | $44B | 11.7× | 7.2× | 50.2% | 19.9% | 62% |
| BLKBlackRock, Inc. | $176B | 25.5× | 16.0× | 65.0% | 24.2% | 12% |
| BNYThe Bank of New York Mellon Corporation | $100B | 16.2× | n/a | n/a | 18.3% | 15% |
| PFGPrincipal Financial Group, Inc. | $24B | 15.9× | 8.5× | n/a | 9.9% | 13% |
| STTState Street Corporation | $47B | 13.7× | n/a | n/a | 15.8% | 13% |
| TROWT. Rowe Price Group, Inc. | $22B | 10.4× | 6.2× | 70.7% | 29.3% | 20% |
- NTRS, BNY, PFG, STT: gross margin is not used (n/a) for a bank, an insurer or a property trust — what it sells is money or space, not goods.
- NTRS, BNY, STT: EV/EBITDA is not used (n/a) for a lender — the debt in its enterprise value is mostly the deposits it lends out.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 13.3× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now13.3×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Financial Services companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 20.4× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now20.4×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A cash-flow model is not built for a bank or an insurer — its cash moves with deposits, loans and claims — so none is shown.
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.