Northern Trust Corporation NTRS
Northern Trust's Q2 2026 inflection—$4.23 EPS and raised full-year guidance—validates the recovery from a soft FY2025 where revenue declined ~10% to $14.3B and EPS compressed to $8.74. However, the stock has run aggressively to $191.41, sitting 24% above the 200-day MA ($154.12) with RSI at 66.3, and trades at 16.3x trailing earnings—a 25% premium to the 13.1x peer median.
With $5.46B in FY2025 free cash flow providing underlying support and the platform expanding via new mandates like First Sentier, the fundamental story is intact, but much of the re-rating appears priced in at current levels.
What could go wrong
- Valuation premium vulnerable. At 16.3x trailing earnings versus a 13.1x peer median (25% premium), any disappointment in the earnings recovery could trigger multiple compression back toward peer levels.
- Revenue volatility. FY2025 revenue fell ~10% from $15.9B to $14.3B after a sharp jump from $12.1B in 2023, showing sensitivity to fee and interest rate cycles that could recur.
- Insider net selling. Over 24 months, insiders net sold $40.7M in value despite a positive net share count of ~20K, suggesting executives are monetizing into the rally.
- Technical overextension. Stock is 6.5% above its 50-day MA and 24% above its 200-day MA with RSI at 66.3, increasing near-term pullback risk.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals · FMP annual fundamentals · Technicals as of 2026-08-14 · Peer relative comparison. Orin's read on NTRS; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All NTRS filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $2.0B | 0.0% of fund |
| State Street | $1.6B | 0.0% of fund |
| Fmr | $1.5B | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.5B | 0.1% of fund |
| Massachusetts Financial Services /Ma/ | $1.0B | 0.3% of fund |
| Northern Trust | $965.6M | 0.1% of fund |
92 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 216 Form 4 filings, net −$41.2M. Of the 50 on hand, 1 was an open-market purchase and 6 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about NTRS
Orin answers questions about NTRS from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 14.9× | 14.7× | 21.6× |
| P/S | 2.10× | 1.79× | — |
| P/B | 2.4× | 1.6× | — |
Its P/E sits 60th percentile of its own last 5 years (+0.36σ from its own mean).
-9.7%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $5.5B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$183
$173 – $194 · +5% against today's price
- 12 buy or overweight
- 18 hold
- 5 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NTRSNorthern Trust Corporation | $32B | 14.9× | — | 59.8% | 14.8% | 17% |
| CFGCitizens Financial Group, Inc. | $27B | 14.0× | 9.8× | 72.4% | 18.5% | 8% |
| CINFCincinnati Financial Corporation | $25B | 7.6× | 5.5× | 52.3% | 23.8% | 21% |
| STTState Street Corporation | $50B | 15.7× | 14.8× | 65.3% | 15.0% | 12% |
| TROWT. Rowe Price Group, Inc. | $22B | 10.4× | 6.9× | 70.7% | 29.3% | 20% |
| USBU.S. Bancorp | $91B | 11.7× | 11.1× | 63.8% | 18.7% | 12% |
The median is of the 5 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 27.8% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $391 | $167.59 · +133% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $430 | $167.59 · +157% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.