Nucor Corporation
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Nucor's cyclical recovery is genuine — Q2 2026 revenue grew 23.0% YoY to $10.40B with EPS of $5.04, up sharply from Q4 2025's $1.64, and the stock trades at an EV/EBITDA of 11.07 versus the peer median of 16.33 — but much of the rerating is now in the price at $260.73, well above the 200-day MA of $219.59 and the prior $235.98 entry.
FY2025 gross margin of 11.9% remains far below the 30.1% earned in FY2022, and capex of $3.42B drove negative free cash flow of -$188M, so the easy money has been made. With Q3 2026 results imminent and Zacks noting NUE 'doesn't possess the right combination' for a likely beat, the risk/reward is now balanced enough to await confirmation rather than chase.
What could go wrong
- Q3 earnings miss. Zacks flags NUE as not having the right combination for a likely beat; Q4 2025 already disappointed with actual EPS of $1.73 vs. $1.91 estimated (-9.4%).
- Valuation already extended. At $260.73, NUE sits above both the 50-day MA ($253.68) and 200-day MA ($219.59) with RSI at 60.45; the prior buy call was struck at $235.98.
- Persistent insider selling. 24-month net insider dispositions of -$60.26M across 57 sales with zero acquisitions; CEO exercised 26,000 options at $42.46 and sold 25,898 shares at $268.52 on 14 Aug.
- Capital intensity constraining FCF. FY2025 capex of $3.42B against operating cash flow of $3.23B produced FCF of -$188M and an FCF margin of -0.58%.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: quarterly results · fundamentals · technicals, 19 Oct · peer comparison. Orin's read on NUE; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 87.8% over twelve months, from $144.16 on 27 Oct 2025 to $270.79 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $274.74 on 5 Aug 2026; the last close is 1.4% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 5.2M, on 18 Jun 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All NUE filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $4.5B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $3.3B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.7B | 0.1% |
| State Street | $2.6B | 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.4B | 0.1% |
| Norges Bank | $917.3M | 0.1% |
| Morgan Stanley | $881.7M | 0.0% |
| FMR | $662.6M | 0.0% |
| Northern Trust | $650.1M | 0.1% |
| Bank of America | $462.9M | 0.0% |
117 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 257 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$60.3M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 9 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about NUE
Orin answers questions about NUE from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 17.2× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 4 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 9.6×); the typical Basic Materials company on the NYSE is at 22.4×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 17.2×above usual | 9.6× | 22.4× |
| P/S | 1.58×above usual | 0.92× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.7×above usual | 5.7× | — |
| P/B | 2.7×above usual | 1.9× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $268 (from $224 to $306) — 1% below the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$268
$224 – $306 · −1% against the last close
- 8 buy or overweight
- 3 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 17.2× its last 12 months of profit. Only 2 of the 4 companies it is compared to made a profit (CMC 10.8×, STLD 18.1×), so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NUENucor Corporation | $61B | 17.2× | 9.7× | 17.3% | 9.3% | 16% |
| CLFCleveland-Cliffs Inc. | $8B | lost money | 15.7× | 1.9% | −2.4% | −8% |
| CMCCommercial Metals Company | $7B | 10.8× | 7.7× | 18.6% | 7.0% | 15% |
| STLDSteel Dynamics, Inc. | $35B | 18.1× | 11.0× | 15.8% | 8.8% | 21% |
| WSWorthington Steel, Inc. | $2B | lost money | 19.9× | 10.4% | −0.6% | −3% |
- CLF, WS: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 17.2× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now17.2×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Basic Materials companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 22.4× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now22.4×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $78 a share — 71% below the $272.72 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $78 | 71% below $272.72 |
| Levered | $81 | 70% below $272.72 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.