Nucor Corporation NUE
Nucor trades at a meaningful discount to steel-sector peers — P/E of 19.96 vs. a peer median of 21.80, and EV/EBITDA of 10.94 vs. 14.95 — but the fundamental picture remains mixed as FY2025 gross margin compressed to 11.93% from 13.35% in FY2024 and 22.51% in FY2023, with EPS declining 11.11% YoY to $7.52 and free cash flow turning negative at -$188M on $3.42B of capex. The collapse of US-Canada trade talks has reinvigorated the tariff tailwind for domestic steel, and smart money scores have improved from negative territory in 2024 to 0.0451 as of Q2 2026, yet technicals have rolled over with a bearish MACD histogram of -2.43 and RSI at 46.5 following a 6.8% post-earnings decline.
The valuation cushion is real but the margin compression trend and negative FCF argue against chasing at $250.50, still ~23% above the 200-day MA of $203.24.
What could go wrong
- Margin compression persists. FY2025 gross margin of 11.93% is less than half the 30.12% level of FY2022; if steel prices soften further, operating margin of 8.18% leaves little buffer.
- Capex overwhelms cash flow. FY2025 capital expenditure of $3.42B against operating cash flow of $3.23B produced negative free cash flow of -$188M, the first negative FCF year in the dataset.
- Insider selling continues. Over 24 months, insiders recorded net value outflow of -$68.1M across 160 dispositions vs. 97 acquisitions; the CEO and an EVP both exercised options and sold shares in August 2026.
- Tariff reversal risk. The current price embeds tariff protection from the US-Canada trade breakdown; any resolution or rollback would remove a key domestic-pricing support.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: peer_relative · derived_metrics · fundamentals FY2025 · technicals as of 2026-08-28. Orin's read on NUE; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All NUE filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $3.3B | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.7B | 0.1% of fund |
| State Street | $2.6B | 0.1% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.4B | 0.1% of fund |
| Norges Bank | $917.3M | 0.1% of fund |
| Morgan Stanley | $881.7M | 0.0% of fund |
114 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 257 Form 4 filings, net −$68.1M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 9 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about NUE
Orin answers questions about NUE from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 19.8× | 9.6× | 29.8× |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.8× | 5.7× | — |
| P/S | 1.56× | 0.92× | — |
| P/B | 2.6× | 1.9× | — |
Its P/E sits 80th percentile of its own last 5 years (+1.41σ from its own mean).
What Wall Street published
$265
$224 – $295 · +7% against today's price
- 20 buy or overweight
- 10 hold
- 3 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NUENucor Corporation | $56B | 19.8× | 10.8× | 15.5% | 8.0% | 14% |
| MLMMartin Marietta Materials, Inc. | $29B | 11.8× | 16.6× | 28.2% | 36.8% | 23% |
| RSReliance Steel & Aluminum Co. | $20B | 22.3× | 14.1× | 26.9% | 5.7% | 12% |
| STLDSteel Dynamics, Inc. | $34B | 21.2× | 12.6× | 14.6% | 7.8% | 18% |
| VMCVulcan Materials Company | $31B | 28.4× | 14.1× | 27.4% | 13.8% | 13% |
The median is of the 4 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 9.3% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $81 | $251.46 · −68% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $85 | $251.46 · −66% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.