NVIDIA Corporation NVDA
NVIDIA's FY2026 results (period ended 2026-01-25) show $215.9B in revenue growing 65.5% YoY with a 60.4% operating margin and $96.7B in free cash flow — fundamentals that remain best-in-class among large-cap semiconductors. At a P/E of 32.0 versus a peer median of 39.7 (a 19.5% discount) and EV/EBITDA of 26.3 versus 27.8, the stock trades at a reasonable valuation for this growth profile, with smart money flows reversing sharply positive from -0.90 (as of 2026-03-31) to +3.29 (as of 2026-06-30) across 79 funds.
Prediction markets assign a 97% probability of an earnings beat tonight, and the stock holds above its 50-day ($207.75) and 200-day ($195.53) moving averages, though a negative MACD histogram and heavy insider dispositions (net -84.9M shares over 24 months) temper near-term conviction.
What could go wrong
- Competitive chip threat. OpenAI announced its new chip outperforms NVIDIA's Blackwell the day before earnings, raising the specter of hyperscaler in-sourcing that could compress long-term data-center share.
- Data center backlash. A growing nationwide backlash against data centers is causing delays and cancellations of facilities, directly threatening demand for NVIDIA's top-of-the-line AI chips.
- Post-earnings sell-off pattern. The stock has fallen after four straight earnings beats, and the bar is elevated with analysts forecasting $97.8B in Q2 revenue — a beat may already be priced in.
- Persistent insider selling. Over the trailing 24 months, insiders executed 501 dispositions versus 30 acquisitions for net -84.9M shares and -$2.07B in net value, a sustained bearish insider signal.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals, fiscal year ended 2026-01-25; derived_metrics precomputed · peer_relative composite as of 2026-08-26 · smart_money 13F composite as of 2026-06-30 · Proactive Investors news article, 2026-08-26. Orin's read on NVDA; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-22 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All NVDA filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $308.3B | 6.6% of fund |
| Fmr | $205.3B | 8.9% of fund |
| State Street | $202.0B | 6.0% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $121.0B | 6.5% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $103.6B | 4.7% of fund |
| Jpmorgan Chase & | $87.6B | 4.8% of fund |
305 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 541 Form 4 filings, net −$2.5B. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 27 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about NVDA
Orin answers questions about NVDA from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 28.7× | 51.8× | 53.3× |
| EV/EBITDA | 23.8× | 43.5× | — |
| P/S | 18.26× | 22.28× | — |
| P/B | 24.1× | 28.9× | — |
Its P/E sits below all 5 of the last 5 years (−1.21σ from its own mean).
22.1%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $96.7B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$345
$270 – $515 · +53% against today's price
- 60 buy or overweight
- 16 hold
- 3 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDANVIDIA Corporation | $5.53T | 28.7× | 23.8× | 74.7% | 63.7% | 110% |
| AAPLApple Inc. | $4.82T | 37.5× | 28.9× | 48.7% | 27.6% | 137% |
| ADIAnalog Devices, Inc. | $174B | 42.1× | 27.7× | 65.8% | 29.8% | 12% |
| AVGOBroadcom Inc. | $1.70T | 44.3× | 34.7× | 67.7% | 42.9% | 44% |
| ENTGEntegris, Inc. | $20B | 65.3× | 26.9× | 45.5% | 9.2% | 8% |
| GOOGLAlphabet Inc. | $4.14T | 17.0× | 12.9× | 60.9% | 54.8% | 51% |
| MSFTMicrosoft Corporation | $3.79T | 28.3× | 18.8× | 67.9% | 40.3% | 33% |
| TERTeradyne, Inc. | $53B | 46.2× | 36.2× | 59.3% | 25.8% | 38% |
| TSMTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited | $2.16T | 27.7× | 18.4× | 64.2% | 50.4% | 39% |
The median is of the 8 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 27.8% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $245 | $202.22 · +21% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $256 | $202.22 · +26% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.