NVR, Inc. NVR
NVR remains a hold as FY2025 fundamentals confirm ongoing deterioration—revenue fell 2.1% to $10.32B, net income dropped 20.3% to $1.34B, and gross margin compressed from 25.5% to 23.0%—with Q2 2026 results reportedly missing estimates on margin pressure. BlackRock's new $2.0B Q2 2026 stake and net insider buying of $36.9M over 24 months provide institutional support, and the 15.8x trailing P/E sits 9.4% below the peer median, but the 33.8% P/S premium looks increasingly difficult to justify against a shrinking revenue base.
Shares at $6,418.86 remain below the 200-day moving average of $6,860.54 with MACD histogram only recently turning positive at +8.04, so the downtrend is unbroken despite improving smart money flows to a score of 0.0097 as of Q2 2026.
What could go wrong
- Margin compression. Gross margin fell from 25.5% in FY2024 to 23.0% in FY2025; continued deterioration would further pressure earnings and the valuation case.
- Revenue decline. Revenue fell 2.1% YoY to $10.32B in FY2025; a shrinking top line makes the 33.8% P/S premium over peers harder to justify.
- Rising leverage. Total debt increased from $1.02B in FY2024 to $1.20B in FY2025 while stockholders' equity declined from $4.21B to $3.87B.
- Housing demand softness. Q2 2026 earnings reportedly missed estimates on margin pressure and fewer settlements, indicating demand headwinds persist into the current cycle.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP FY2025 annual + derived_metrics · FMP FY2025 annual + derived_metrics · derived_metrics FY2024–FY2025 · Defense World news 2026-08-20. Orin's read on NVR; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All NVR filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $1.2B | 0.0% of fund |
| Capital Research Global Investors | $1.1B | 0.2% of fund |
| State Street | $877.3M | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $771.2M | 0.0% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $500.4M | 0.0% of fund |
| Aqr Capital Management | $334.5M | 0.1% of fund |
82 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 51 Form 4 filings, net $36.9M. Of the 50 on hand, 3 were open-market purchases and 8 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about NVR
Orin answers questions about NVR from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 15.4× | 15.1× | 79.6× |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.0× | 11.0× | — |
| P/S | 1.79× | 2.36× | — |
| P/B | 5.0× | 5.5× | — |
Its P/E sits 60th percentile of its own last 5 years (+0.41σ from its own mean).
4.1%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $1.1B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$7042
$6600 – $7400 · +13% against today's price
- 11 buy or overweight
- 10 hold
- 4 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVRNVR, Inc. | $17B | 15.4× | 11.0× | 22.2% | 12.1% | 31% |
| DRIDarden Restaurants, Inc. | $24B | 20.4× | 13.0× | 69.4% | 9.1% | 56% |
| LENLennar Corporation | $20B | 15.4× | 11.9× | 9.5% | 4.1% | 6% |
| LULULululemon Athletica Inc. | $12B | 8.4× | 4.8× | 56.1% | 12.8% | 30% |
| PHMPulteGroup, Inc. | $23B | 12.1× | 9.9× | 24.5% | 11.6% | 15% |
| RLRalph Lauren Corporation | $21B | 21.0× | 14.8× | 70.3% | 11.8% | 36% |
| SWSmurfit Westrock Plc | $24B | 47.3× | 8.6× | 17.9% | 1.6% | 3% |
The median is of the 6 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 14.2% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $7677 | $6263.02 · +23% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $7076 | $6263.02 · +13% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.