Northwest Natural Holding Company
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Northwest Natural Holding trades at a 24.1% P/E discount and 21.1% EV/EBITDA discount to regulated-utility peers despite a sharp FY2025 earnings recovery in which diluted EPS rose 36.5% to $2.77 and operating margin nearly doubled to 31.4% from 16.6% in FY2024.
The 71st consecutive dividend increase announced in October 2026 reinforces a Dividend King profile that the market is not fully crediting at $47.73, while Q1 2026 EPS of $2.38 confirms the recovery is carrying into the current year. Persistent negative free cash flow of -$197.8M and a 41% jump in total debt to $2.76B remain the principal overhang, but these are tied to $466.9M of capex funding the growth and diversification thesis rather than operational deterioration.
What could go wrong
- Capex funding strain. FY2025 free cash flow was -$197.8M against $269.1M of operating cash flow, with capex of $466.9M and total debt up to $2.76B; sustained capex without timely rate relief could pressure the balance sheet.
- Insider net selling. Over the trailing 24 months insiders net disposed of 138,691 shares worth ~$5.96M, with recent dispositions by the CFO and other officers; no meaningful open-market cluster buying is evident.
- Technically below trend. Last close of $47.73 sits below both the 50-day ($48.92) and 200-day ($49.94) moving averages, and RSI at 46.5 is neutral rather than oversold, limiting near-term technical support.
- Seasonal earnings lumpiness. Q3 2025 posted an operating loss of -$12.4M and diluted EPS of -$0.73, highlighting reliance on winter heating-season quarters for profitability.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: peer comparison and technicals, 9 Oct · FY25 fundamentals · news, 8 Oct · insider trades, last 24 months. Orin's read on NWN; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 5.0% over twelve months, from $47.53 on 27 Oct 2025 to $49.93 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $55.80 on 9 Apr 2026; the last close is 10.5% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 1.3M, on 20 Mar 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All NWN filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $329.2M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $134.2M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $93.2M | 0.0% |
| State Street | $84.9M | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $60.2M | 0.0% |
| Invesco | $45.6M | 0.0% |
| Morgan Stanley | $40.0M | 0.0% |
| Goldman Sachs Group | $28.4M | 0.0% |
| Charles Schwab Investment Management | $27.9M | 0.0% |
| Bank of New York Mellon | $24.2M | 0.0% |
51 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 172 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$6.0M. Of the 50 on hand, 2 were open-market purchases and 14 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about NWN
Orin answers questions about NWN from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 16.8× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close) — higher than in 1 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 18.7×); the typical Utilities company on the NYSE is at 18.5×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 16.8×below usual | 18.7× | 18.5× |
| P/S | 1.67×above usual | 1.48× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.0×near usual | 9.9× | — |
| P/B | 1.4×above usual | 1.3× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
Few analysts publish on it: 2 firms rated it in the last 18 months. The 12-month price targets on file average $52.50 (from $49 to $56) — 5% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. With so few, it is not a consensus; it is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$52.50
$49 – $56 · +5% against the last close
- 1 buy or overweight
- 1 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 16.8× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 6 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 22.8×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NWNNorthwest Natural Holding Company | $2B | 16.8× | 10.0× | 54.4% | 9.7% | 8% |
| AWRAmerican States Water Company | $4B | 24.3× | 16.6× | 59.9% | 20.4% | 13% |
| CPKChesapeake Utilities Corporation | $3B | 22.2× | 9.2× | 36.3% | 15.1% | 9% |
| CTRICenturi Holdings, Inc. | $2B | 33.3× | 9.8× | 8.7% | 1.5% | 6% |
| CWTCalifornia Water Service Group | $3B | 21.5× | 12.3× | 64.4% | 12.6% | 8% |
| HTOH2O America | $3B | 23.3× | 8.0× | 47.0% | 12.5% | 6% |
| SPHSuburban Propane Partners, L.P. | $1B | 9.1× | 9.1× | 32.2% | 9.4% | 19% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 16.8× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now16.8×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Utilities companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 18.5× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now18.5×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
It spends more cash than it brings in, so a cash-flow model gives no usable value (both versions come out below zero).
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.