Northwest Natural Holding Company NWN
NWN remains a hold as the FY2025 earnings recovery to $2.77 diluted EPS and a 31.4% operating margin—roughly double FY2024's 16.6%—combined with management guiding 2026 EPS to the top half of the $2.95–$3.15 range, supports the fundamental case. The stock trades at a 25.9% P/E discount to the peer median of 22.3x and technicals have repaired with shares at $50.65 above both the 50-day ($50.17) and 200-day ($49.72) moving averages alongside a positive MACD histogram of 0.067.
However, persistent negative free cash flow of -$197.8M in FY2025, total debt surging 41% to $2.76B, and net insider selling of -$7.8M over 24 months keep us on the sidelines until leverage stabilizes and FCF meaningfully improves.
What could go wrong
- Leverage build. Total debt surged to $2.758B in FY2025 from $1.958B in FY2024 against stockholders' equity of $1.475B, raising balance-sheet risk if rate base growth doesn't translate into allowed returns.
- Persistent negative FCF. Free cash flow has been negative for five consecutive fiscal years, with FY2025 FCF of -$197.8M driven by capex of $466.9M, requiring continued external financing.
- Insider net selling. Over the trailing 24 months, insiders net sold approximately $7.8M in shares, including repeated 1,500-share dispositions by David Anderson in June–August 2026.
- Institutional outflows. Smart money score is slightly negative at -0.0015 as of 2026-06-30, with fund count declining from 45 in Q1 2026 to 42 in Q2 2026.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP FY2025 annual + derived_metrics · MarketBeat Q2 earnings call highlights, 2026-08-08 · peer_relative composite · technicals as of 2026-08-19. Orin's read on NWN; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All NWN filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $134.2M | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $93.2M | 0.0% of fund |
| State Street | $84.9M | 0.0% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $60.2M | 0.0% of fund |
| Invesco | $45.6M | 0.0% of fund |
| Morgan Stanley | $40.0M | 0.0% of fund |
50 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 171 Form 4 filings, net −$7.9M. Of the 50 on hand, 2 were open-market purchases and 13 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about NWN
Orin answers questions about NWN from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 15.3× | — | 25.9× |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.6× | — | — |
| P/S | 1.53× | — | — |
| P/B | 1.3× | — | — |
What Wall Street published
$54
$50 – $58 · +16% against today's price
- 2 buy or overweight
- 6 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NWNNorthwest Natural Holding Company | $2B | 15.3× | 9.6× | 45.2% | 9.7% | 8% |
| AWRAmerican States Water Company | $3B | 22.5× | 15.3× | 57.0% | 20.5% | 14% |
| CPKChesapeake Utilities Corporation | $3B | 20.4× | 13.2× | 49.9% | 15.1% | 9% |
| CTRICenturi Holdings, Inc. | $2B | 65.0× | 13.2× | 8.3% | 0.9% | 4% |
| CWTCalifornia Water Service Group | $3B | 20.7× | 12.0× | 64.4% | 12.6% | 8% |
| HTOH2O America | $3B | 21.7× | 14.0× | 56.5% | 12.9% | 6% |
| SPHSuburban Propane Partners, L.P. | $1B | 8.4× | 8.8× | 39.4% | 9.4% | 19% |
The median is of the 6 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 27.7% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.