Orin
NWSNasdaq·Entertainment

News Corporation NWS

Market cap $17.3BP/E 30.6× trailingGross margin 56.9%Reports Thu 5 Nov, after the close
$31.52
−0.04 (−0.11%)live 11:25 ET
52-wk $25.49 – $35.76
Watch
Orin's take
0.62conviction · moderate
Refreshed 22 Aug · take v6. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

News Corporation closed FY2026 (ended 2026-06-30) with record Q4 profitability — revenue up 11% to $2.34B and segment EBITDA up 31% to $423M — but full-year operating margin compressed from 16.74% to 11.4% as operating income fell from $1.415B to $1.029B despite 6.81% revenue growth, suggesting the bottom-line improvement was driven by non-operating items rather than core operational leverage. At 32.6x trailing earnings the stock trades at a ~30% discount to the peer median PE of 46.8, yet EV/EBITDA of 12.5 is roughly in line with peers and the PS ratio of 2.0 is a 90% premium to the peer median.

Persistent insider selling — $1.3B net over 24 months including a cluster of executive disposals on August 17, 2026 — and negligible smart money engagement (SM score 0.0011 as of Q2 2026) temper enthusiasm despite the strong Q4 print and intact technical uptrend (price above both the 50-day MA of $30.97 and 200-day MA of $29.56).

What could go wrong

  • Operating margin compression. Full-year operating margin fell from 16.74% in FY2025 to 11.4% in FY2026 even as revenue grew 6.81%, indicating cost pressures or one-time charges eroding core profitability.
  • Heavy insider selling. Net insider dispositions of $1.305B over 24 months, with a cluster of sales by the CFO, CAO, CTO, CHRO, and General Counsel on August 17, 2026, signal limited executive confidence at current levels.
  • Valuation premium on revenue. PS ratio of 2.03 is 89.6% above the peer median of 1.07, meaning the PE discount may not adequately compensate for the lower-margin profile relative to peers.
  • Smart money disinterest. Smart money score of 0.0011 as of Q2 2026, down from 0.004 in Q3 2025, with fund count rising but conviction per fund remaining negligible.

What would change my mind

Operating margin recovery. FY2027 Q1 operating margin returns above 15%, confirming Q4 strength was not a one-off and cost pressures are abatingbullish
Insider buying reversal. Net insider transactions turn positive over a 3-month window, especially from the CEO or Chairmanbullish
Continued margin deterioration. FY2027 Q1 operating margin falls below 11%, indicating the compression trend is structural rather than transitorybearish
Smart money accumulation. Smart money score rises above 0.01 with fund count increasing, signaling institutional conviction returningbullish

Where this comes from: FMP fundamentals FY2025 vs FY2026; derived_metrics · MarketBeat news article, 2026-08-05 · derived_metrics FY2026 · peer_relative. Orin's read on NWS; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow
FilerPositionOf fund
Sof$274.5M100.0% of fund
State Street$241.1M0.0% of fund
Vanguard Capital Management$174.6M0.0% of fund
Vanguard Portfolio Management$147.0M0.0% of fund
Geode Capital Management$111.2M0.0% of fund
Starboard Value$68.2M1.5% of fund

59 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 328 Form 4 filings, net −$1.3B. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 5 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

Ask Orin about NWS

its filings · its transcripts · its numbers

Orin answers questions about NWS from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.

Start 3 free days →

Where it trades

vs its own 5y · Communication Services
MetricNowOwn medianSector
P/E30.6×43.6×26.3×
EV/EBITDA11.8×15.6×—
P/S1.91×1.54×—
P/B2.1×1.8×—

Its P/E sits 20th percentile of its own last 5 years (−0.82σ from its own mean).

What the price assumes

8.6%

free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.8B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 50.6× of 2 peers
CompanyMarket capP/EEV/EBITDAGrossNetROE
NWSNews Corporation$17B30.6×11.8×56.9%6.3%7%
OMCOmnicom Group Inc.$20B39.9×16.4×17.5%1.7%4%
PSKYParamount Skydance Corporation Class B Common Stock$11B——28.8%-2.1%-5%
TKOTKO Group Holdings, Inc.$14B61.3×11.3×54.1%4.3%6%

The median is of the 2 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 39.5% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year
FY16 38.9×FY26 27.2×

What its sector has traded at

Communication Services
FY14 34.0×FY26 29.1×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Discounted cash flow

not recomputed since
ModelFair valueAgainstComputed
Standard DCF$14$31.30 · −55%2026-06-10
Levered DCF$21$31.30 · −32%2026-06-10

The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.

Every estimate on one scale

price $31.52
52-week range$25 – $36
Standard DCF$14 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $31.30
Levered DCF$21 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $31.30
At own 5y-median P/E (44×)$45
At 5y P/E range (15–76×)$15 – $79
At sector P/E (26×)$27

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.