News Corporation
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
News Corporation closed FY2026 (ended 30 Jun) with accelerating revenue growth — 6.8% for the full year, reaching 10.8% in Q4 — and EPS of $1.03 up 27.2% YoY, but operating margin compressed sharply from 16.7% to 11.4% as operating income fell from $1.415B to $1.029B, meaning earnings growth is not driven by core operational leverage.
The stock trades at a 24% PE discount to the peer median of 40.90, yet the PS ratio of 1.94 is a 107% premium to the peer median of 0.94, and persistent insider selling — $1.28B net over 24 months — alongside negligible smart money engagement (SM score 0.00 as of Q2 2026) tempers enthusiasm. The potential Fox re-merger (reported August 2026) and consistent earnings beats (50.7% surprise in the latest quarter) provide upside optionality, but until operating margin stabilizes, the risk/reward is balanced.
What could go wrong
- Operating margin erosion. Operating margin compressed from 16.7% in FY2025 to 11.4% in FY2026 despite 6.8% revenue growth, with operating income falling from $1.415B to $1.029B — if this trend persists, earnings quality deteriorates further.
- Insider selling pressure. Net insider dispositions of $1.28B over 24 months with only 2 acquisitions versus 11 dispositions signal limited insider conviction at current levels.
- Fox re-merger uncertainty. Rupert Murdoch's contemplation of recombining Fox Corp and News Corp (reported August 2026) could unlock value or destroy it depending on terms, governance, and strategic rationale.
- Valuation premium on revenue. PS ratio of 1.94 is a 107% premium to the peer median of 0.94, leaving limited room for execution missteps if revenue growth decelerates.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Q4 FY26 fundamentals and results · FY25 and FY26 fundamentals · FY26 fundamentals · peer comparison. Orin's read on NWS; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 5.8% over twelve months, from $30.96 on 27 Oct 2025 to $32.76 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $35.32 on 27 Aug 2026; the last close is 7.2% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 10.4M, on 31 Mar 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All NWS filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Sof | $274.5M | 100.0% |
| State Street | $241.1M | 0.0% |
| BlackRock | $213.2M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $174.6M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $147.0M | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $111.2M | 0.0% |
| Starboard Value | $68.2M | 1.5% |
| Invesco | $61.2M | 0.0% |
| Bank of Montreal | $55.6M | 0.0% |
| Morgan Stanley | $41.1M | 0.0% |
60 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 386 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$1.3B. Of the 50 on hand, none was an open-market trade — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about NWS
Orin answers questions about NWS from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 25.9× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close); the typical Communication Services company on the NASDAQ is at 18.9×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 25.9× | — | 18.9× |
| P/S | 1.70×near usual | 1.73× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.3×near usual | 10.7× | — |
| P/B | 1.8×near usual | 1.8× | — |
- P/E: no usual level — it ran from 15.0× to 75.8× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 25.9× its last 12 months of profit. Only 2 of the 3 companies it is compared to made a profit (OMC 31.5×, TKO 49.3×), so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NWSNews Corporation | $16B | 25.9× | 10.3× | 56.9% | 6.8% | 7% |
| OMCOmnicom Group Inc. | $22B | 31.5× | 12.6× | 18.4% | 2.9% | 7% |
| SKYDParamount Skydance Corporation Class B Common Stock | $8B | lost money | n/m | 28.8% | −2.1% | −5% |
| TKOTKO Group Holdings, Inc. | $14B | 49.3× | 10.5× | 57.5% | 5.2% | 8% |
- SKYD: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- SKYD: EV/EBITDA is not meaningful (n/m) — its cash exceeds its market value plus debt, or the business lost money before depreciation.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 25.9× its last 12 months of profit (Thu 5 Nov close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now25.9×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Communication Services companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 18.9× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now18.9×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $19 a share — 41% below the $32.88 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $19 | 41% below $32.88 |
| Levered | $23 | 31% below $32.88 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.