NXP Semiconductors N.V.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
NXPI is a buy as the revenue recovery is now firmly established — Q2 2026 revenue grew 19.5% YoY to $3.50B, a sharp swing from the -6.4% YoY decline in Q2 2025, with Q1 2026 also up 12.2%, confirming a multi-quarter inflection.
The stock trades at 20.2x trailing PE versus a peer median of 47.4x — a 57.4% discount — while generating $2.28B in FY2025 free cash flow at an 18.6% margin, and the GF Value of $250.62 versus the current $237.60 price suggests modest intrinsic upside with analyst consensus pointing to 31.4% further upside. The main caveat is that the stock sits below its 200-day MA of $246.19 and insiders have been net sellers ($15.58M over 24 months), but the combination of cheap relative valuation, confirmed quarterly acceleration, and consistent earnings beats (2.6% and 2.3% surprise in the last two quarters) outweighs those concerns heading into the upcoming Q3 2026 report.
What could go wrong
- Upcoming earnings event risk. Q3 2026 results are expected next week per Zacks; a miss or weak guidance could reverse the recovery narrative, especially with the stock already below its 200-day MA of $246.19.
- Persistent insider selling. Over the trailing 24 months, insiders disposed a net 69,054 shares worth $15.58M, with recent sales by the EVP/Chief People Officer (3,355 shares at $240 on Oct 1, 2026) and EVP/COO (1,000 shares at $226.04 on Sep 15, 2026).
- Smart money outflow trend. The smart money score has declined from 0.04 as of Q4 2024 to 0.02 as of Q2 2026, suggesting institutional conviction is waning even as fund count rose from 57 to 66.
- Margin compression. FY2025 gross margin of 54.4% and operating margin of 27.0% are below FY2023 levels of 56.9% and 27.6%, and FY2025 EPS fell 18.3% YoY to $7.95, so the recovery must restore margins to justify the valuation re-rating.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Q2 2026 results · Q2 2025 results · Q1 2026 results · peer comparison. Orin's read on NXPI; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 14.4% over twelve months, from $221.56 on 27 Oct 2025 to $253.50 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $332.67 on 26 May 2026; the last close is 23.8% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 10.7M, on 29 Apr 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All NXPI filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| FMR | $7.1B | 0.3% |
| BlackRock | $6.7B | 0.1% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $4.8B | 0.3% |
| State Street | $3.3B | 0.1% |
| Invesco | $3.1B | 0.2% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $2.3B | 0.0% |
| Wellington Management Group | $1.9B | 0.3% |
| Massachusetts Financial Services | $1.8B | 0.6% |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.6B | 0.1% |
| Bank of America | $1.2B | 0.1% |
107 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 182 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$15.6M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 7 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about NXPI
Orin answers questions about NXPI from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 19.8× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 1 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 21.2×); the typical Technology company on the NASDAQ is at 46.1×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 19.8×below usual | 21.2× | 46.1× |
| P/S | 4.63×near usual | 4.47× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.2×near usual | 13.8× | — |
| P/B | 5.3×below usual | 5.8× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $283 (from $190 to $338) — 12% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$283
$190 – $338 · +12% against the last close
- 10 buy or overweight
- 8 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 19.8× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 7 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 50.2×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NXPINXP Semiconductors N.V. | $64B | 19.8× | 14.2× | 56.3% | 23.4% | 29% |
| ADIAnalog Devices, Inc. | $206B | 50.2× | 30.3× | 65.8% | 29.8% | 12% |
| MCHPMicrochip Technology Incorporated | $35B | 101× | 21.3× | 62.7% | 14.0% | 12% |
| MPWRMonolithic Power Systems, Inc. | $60B | 73.9× | 56.1× | 55.2% | 24.4% | 22% |
| ONON Semiconductor Corporation | $31B | 49.8× | 20.5× | 37.4% | 10.2% | 8% |
| QCOMQUALCOMM Incorporated | $167B | 12.2× | 15.2× | 53.1% | 31.6% | 50% |
| SLABSilicon Laboratories Inc. | $7B | lost money | n/m | 59.9% | −4.6% | −4% |
| STMSTMicroelectronics N.V. | $43B | 91.8× | 19.2× | 34.3% | 3.5% | 3% |
| TXNTexas Instruments Incorporated | $282B | 40.0× | 26.6× | 60.2% | 34.3% | 41% |
- SLAB: EV/EBITDA is not meaningful (n/m) — its operating profit before depreciation over the last 12 months is so small against its price that the ratio says little.
- SLAB: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 19.8× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now19.8×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Technology companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 46.1× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now46.1×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $67 a share — 73% below the $250.70 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $67 | 73% below $250.70 |
| Levered | $61 | 76% below $250.70 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.