NXP Semiconductors N.V. NXPI
NXPI remains attractively valued at 19.1x trailing PE — a 57.8% discount to the peer median of 45.2x — with institutional interest improving (smart money score rose to 0.0659 as of Q2 2026 from -0.0266 in Q1) and large buyers including Barrow Hanley and BNY Mellon adding positions. But the fundamental deterioration has not reversed: revenue has declined two straight years from $13.28B (2023) to $12.27B (2025), EPS fell from $10.70 to $7.95, and total debt climbed to $12.22B while the stock dropped 7.4% since last earnings and trades below both its 50-day ($256.52) and 200-day ($243.14) moving averages.
The deep valuation discount and $2.28B in 2025 free cash flow provide a floor, but the absence of a revenue growth catalyst keeps this a hold until stabilization is evident.
What could go wrong
- Continued revenue decline. Revenue has contracted for two consecutive years through fiscal 2025 at -2.74% YoY; a further drop would deepen the valuation trap.
- Rising leverage. Total debt increased to $12.22B in 2025 from $10.85B in 2024, against stockholders' equity of $10.06B.
- Margin compression. Gross margin fell to 54.4% in 2025 from 56.9% in 2023, indicating pricing pressure across the product portfolio.
- Technical breakdown. Stock at $224.64 is below both the 50-day ($256.52) and 200-day ($243.14) moving averages with RSI at 38.3, suggesting further downside risk if support fails.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: peer_relative composite · FMP annual fundamentals · FMP annual fundamentals · FMP annual fundamentals. Orin's read on NXPI; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All NXPI filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Fmr | $7.1B | 0.3% of fund |
| Jpmorgan Chase & | $4.8B | 0.3% of fund |
| State Street | $3.3B | 0.1% of fund |
| Invesco | $3.1B | 0.2% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $2.3B | 0.0% of fund |
| Wellington Management Group Llp | $1.9B | 0.3% of fund |
104 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 181 Form 4 filings, net −$22.4M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 6 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about NXPI
Orin answers questions about NXPI from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 20.0× | 21.2× | 53.3× |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.7× | 13.8× | — |
| P/S | 4.50× | 4.47× | — |
| P/B | 5.2× | 5.8× | — |
Its P/E sits 20th percentile of its own last 5 years (−0.57σ from its own mean).
11.3%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $2.3B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$285
$190 – $338 · +23% against today's price
- 31 buy or overweight
- 13 hold
- 2 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NXPINXP Semiconductors N.V. | $59B | 20.0× | 13.7× | 55.9% | 22.6% | 28% |
| ASXASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd. | $97B | 49.8× | 21.1× | 19.5% | 8.5% | 17% |
| EAElectronic Arts Inc. | $53B | 48.4× | 29.8× | 79.9% | 13.8% | 17% |
| GRMNGarmin Ltd. | $55B | 29.5× | 22.1× | 60.1% | 24.5% | 21% |
| MPWRMonolithic Power Systems, Inc. | $67B | 82.7× | 64.8× | 55.2% | 24.4% | 22% |
| STXSeagate Technology Holdings plc | $207B | 63.5× | 49.2× | 45.6% | 26.1% | 348% |
| TTWOTake-Two Interactive Software, Inc. | $39B | — | 40.7× | 56.0% | -4.8% | -9% |
| WDCWestern Digital Corporation | $163B | 17.4× | 18.7× | 48.9% | 72.9% | 119% |
| XYZBlock, Inc. | $44B | 131.0× | 37.4× | 46.4% | 1.4% | 2% |
The median is of the 7 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 59.9% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.