Orin
OCNYSE·Construction Materials

Owens Corning OC

Market cap $9.8BP/E no earnings to divide byGross margin 26.2%Reports Wed 4 Nov, before the open
$121.83
−1.04 (−0.85%)live 09:40 ET
52-wk $97.53 – $159.91
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Orin's take
0.60conviction · moderate
Refreshed 21 Aug · take v4. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

Owens Corning's Q2 2026 results — $2.8B in revenue and a 24% adjusted EBITDA margin — confirm the post-acquisition business is stabilizing after a messy FY2025 that saw a $522M net loss, revenue declining 8% to $10.1B, and total debt climbing to $6.16B against equity of just $3.85B. However, the stock at $151.23 already trades well above its 50-day ($141.36) and 200-day ($122.85) moving averages, and EV/EBITDA of 25.86 runs roughly 90% above the peer median of 13.62, pricing in a recovery that is still early and carrying a heavily leveraged balance sheet.

Multiple insiders including the new CFO and all three segment presidents acquired shares on August 10 at $153.80, and smart money scores have turned slightly positive (0.0257 as of Q2 2026), but these are offset by the negative trailing EPS, compressed margins (gross margin fell to 28.5% in FY2025 from 30%), and unresolved leverage overhang.

What could go wrong

  • Balance sheet leverage. Total debt of $6.16B against equity of $3.85B at FY2025-end leaves little room for error if construction end markets weaken further; interest costs contributed to the $522M net loss.
  • Valuation stretch. EV/EBITDA of 25.86 is ~90% above the peer median of 13.62, and the trailing P/E is negative at -18.58, meaning the market is paying a premium on a forward recovery that may not materialize fast enough.
  • Margin compression. Gross margin fell to 28.5% in FY2025 from 30.0% in FY2024 and operating margin dropped to 17.0% from 19.2%, suggesting integration costs and mix headwinds are pressuring profitability.
  • Cyclical demand exposure. Q2 2026 commentary cited 'uneven construction and remodeling conditions,' meaning a housing slowdown could derail the volume recovery implied by the current stock price.

What would change my mind

Deleveraging progress. Total debt declines below $5.5B by end of FY2026 with FCF exceeding $1B, signaling balance sheet repair is on trackbullish
Margin recovery. Gross margin returns above 30% and operating margin above 19% in a subsequent quarter, indicating integration costs are behindbullish
Housing downturn. US housing starts or remodeling activity declines sharply, compressing volumes across all three segments and straining leveraged cash flowsbearish
Sustained negative earnings. FY2026 net income remains negative or near breakeven, confirming the acquisition has structurally impaired profitability rather than temporarily depressing itbearish

Where this comes from: MarketBeat news snippet, 2026-08-08 · FMP annual fundamentals, FY2025 · derived_metrics, FY2025 vs FY2024 · peer_relative, as of 2026-08-19. Orin's read on OC; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow
FilerPositionOf fund
Vanguard Portfolio Management$869.3M0.0% of fund
Aqr Capital Management$577.9M0.2% of fund
Vanguard Capital Management$577.1M0.0% of fund
State Street$492.4M0.0% of fund
Geode Capital Management$324.8M0.0% of fund
Price T Rowe Associates /Md/$268.5M0.0% of fund

75 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 259 Form 4 filings, net −$163K. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 3 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

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Where it trades

· Basic Materials
MetricNowOwn medianSector
EV/EBITDA22.5×
P/S1.00×
P/B2.6×
What the price assumes

-1.5%

free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $1.0B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.

What Wall Street published

43 firms · 2026-09-23
Consensus target

$176

$150$198 · +44% against today's price

How they rate it
  • 17 buy or overweight
  • 25 hold
  • 1 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 20.0× of 9 peers
CompanyMarket capP/EEV/EBITDAGrossNetROE
OCOwens Corning$10B22.5×26.2%-6.8%-17%
APOGApogee Enterprises, Inc.$768M11.4×6.6×23.3%4.9%13%
BLDRBuilders FirstSource, Inc.$6B64.3×11.2×29.2%0.7%2%
CSLCarlisle Companies Incorporated$13B18.5×12.3×35.3%14.2%41%
FBINFortune Brands Innovations, Inc.$5B31.7×15.4×45.6%3.4%6%
JCIJohnson Controls International plc$88B25.3×27.0×36.7%14.3%27%
LIILennox International Inc.$13B16.8×13.1×33.1%14.6%65%
MASMasco Corporation$13B15.7×11.0×36.9%11.6%-406%
NXQuanex Building Products Corporation$911M20.0×7.6×22.7%2.4%6%
TTTrane Technologies plc$96B33.0×22.9×35.4%13.3%34%

The median is of the 9 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year
FY14 18.7×FY24 22.9×

What its sector has traded at

Basic Materials
FY14 23.8×FY26 28.6×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Every estimate on one scale

price $121.83
52-week range$98 – $160
Analyst targets$150 – $198

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.