Owens Corning
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Owens Corning warrants a hold as Q2 2026's return to profitability — $226M net income and $2.80 diluted EPS — signals stabilization after FY2025's $522M net loss, but the recovery remains early and the balance sheet stretched with $6.155B total debt against $3.853B equity.
The stock has fallen to $112.61, well below the $153.80 at which insiders including the new CFO and segment presidents acquired shares on August 10, 2026, and RSI at 32.94 suggests oversold conditions, yet EV/EBITDA of 19.23 sits well above the peer median of 10.51. With the stock trading below both its 50-day ($134.79) and 200-day ($126.20) moving averages and housing demand still uncertain, patience is warranted until margin recovery and deleveraging are more firmly established.
What could go wrong
- Housing downturn deepens. Soft residential demand pressures roofing and insulation volumes; QXO, a roofing distributor, recently hit 52-week lows on weak residential demand, signaling broader industry headwinds.
- Leverage constraints. Total debt of $6.155B against equity of $3.853B at FY2025 year-end limits financial flexibility and raises refinancing risk if rates stay elevated.
- Valuation compression. EV/EBITDA of 19.23 versus peer median of 10.51 leaves significant room for multiple contraction if earnings recovery disappoints.
- Margin recovery stalls. Q1 2026 still produced a net loss of $105M and EPS of -$1.31, and the path to sustained profitability across all segments remains unproven.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: results, quarter to 30 Jun · fundamentals, year to 31 Dec 2025 · technicals, 12 Oct · insider trades, 10 Aug. Orin's read on OC; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 8.8% over twelve months, from $127.50 on 27 Oct 2025 to $116.31 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $158.96 on 30 Jun 2026; the last close is 26.8% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 9.2M, on 24 Nov 2025).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All OC filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $1.4B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $869.3M | 0.0% |
| AQR Capital Management | $577.9M | 0.2% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $577.1M | 0.0% |
| State Street | $492.4M | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $324.8M | 0.0% |
| T. Rowe Price Associates | $268.5M | 0.0% |
| Point72 Asset Management | $193.5M | 0.2% |
| Norges Bank | $175.5M | 0.0% |
| Harris Associates | $174.1M | 0.2% |
77 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 245 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$8.1M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 3 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about OC
Orin answers questions about OC from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
It lost money over the last 12 months, so it has no P/E (Thu 5 Nov close). It is priced at 1.02× its yearly sales — below its usual level (1.10×).
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | lost money | 10.3× | 22.4× |
| P/S | 1.02×below usual | 1.10× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.2×above usual | 6.9× | — |
| P/B | 3.1×above usual | 2.4× | — |
- P/E: lost money — no P/E over the last 12 months.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $143 (from $106 to $185) — 23% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$143
$106 – $185 · +23% against the last close
- 9 buy or overweight
- 4 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
It lost money over the last 12 months, so it has no P/E; the middle P/E of the 7 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 19.9×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OCOwens Corning | $10B | lost money | 16.2× | 25.2% | −4.4% | −12% |
| APOGApogee Enterprises, Inc. | $941M | 14.1× | 8.0× | 23.5% | 4.7% | 13% |
| BLDRBuilders FirstSource, Inc. | $6B | 61.6× | 10.9× | 29.2% | 0.7% | 2% |
| CSLCarlisle Companies Incorporated | $14B | 19.9× | 12.9× | 35.3% | 14.2% | 41% |
| FBINFortune Brands Innovations, Inc. | $5B | 35.0× | 17.4× | 45.6% | 3.4% | 6% |
| MASMasco Corporation | $15B | 17.3× | 11.9× | 36.9% | 11.6% | n/m |
| NXQuanex Building Products Corporation | $918M | 20.2× | 7.6× | 22.7% | 2.4% | 6% |
| TGLSTecnoglass Inc. | $2B | 19.3× | 10.9× | 37.3% | 9.6% | 14% |
- MAS: return on equity is not meaningful (n/m) — book value is below zero.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
It has lost money and has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so it has no P/E history.
- Nowlost money
- Now: no P/E — it lost money over the last 12 months.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Basic Materials companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 22.4× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now22.4×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $104 a share — 10% below the $115.66 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $104 | 10% below $115.66 |
| Levered | $214 | 85% above $115.66 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.