Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. ODFL
Old Dominion remains a best-in-class LTL operator with a pristine balance sheet ($141M debt vs $4.31B equity as of FY2025) and strong free cash flow ($955M), but three consecutive years of declining revenue (from $6.26B in 2022 to $5.50B in 2025) and compressing operating margins (from 29.4% to 24.76%) make the current 38.75x trailing P/E — a 28.75% premium to the peer median of 30.09x — difficult to justify. The Q2 2026 earnings beat and $380M spending plan suggest a potential freight-cycle inflection, while smart money has turned modestly positive (score of 0.0395 as of Q2 2026, up from -0.0329 in Q4 2024) and fund count rose from 54 to 62.
However, persistent net insider selling of 546K shares over 24 months and a bearish technical setup (RSI at 33.2, price below the 50-day MA of $219.43, negative MACD) argue against upgrading at this valuation until sustained volume-driven revenue recovery is confirmed.
What could go wrong
- Valuation premium unwinds. At 38.75x trailing P/E and 7.48x P/S — 28.75% and 89.25% above peer medians respectively — any earnings disappointment could trigger a sharp de-rating.
- Freight recession persists. Revenue has declined for three straight years (FY2022–FY2025), with FY2025 revenue growth at -5.48% and net income growth at -13.69%; if the Q2 2026 beat does not mark a true inflection, margins and earnings will continue to erode.
- Insider selling signal. Net insider disposition of 546K shares worth $22.5M over 24 months, including Executive Chairman David Congdon's disposition of 295,670 shares on 2026-05-27, suggests limited insider confidence at current levels.
- Margin compression continues. Operating margin compressed from 29.4% (FY2022) to 24.76% (FY2025) and gross margin from 36.04% to 32.15%; if pricing power weakens further, the premium multiple becomes harder to defend.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals · derived_metrics · peer_relative · insider summary. Orin's read on ODFL; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All ODFL filings| Form | Filed | What it says | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8-K | 22 Sep | John D. Kasarda, Ph.D. retired from the Board of Directors effective September 22, 2026. Worthing F. Jackman was elected to the Board effective September 22, 2026, and appointed… | read |
| 8-K | 3 Sep | Old Dominion Freight Line reported August 2026 LTL operating metrics showing revenue per day increased 12.4% year-over-year, driven by an 11.3% increase in LTL revenue per… | read |
| 13G/A | 14 Aug | — | on file |
| 10-Q | 5 Aug | Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. | read |
| 8-K | 29 Jul | Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. | read |
| 8-K | 23 Jul | Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. | read |
| 8-K | 3 Jun | Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. | read |
| 8-K | 21 May | Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. | read |
Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Brasada Capital Management | $4.2B | 0.8% of fund |
| Fmr | $2.7B | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $2.6B | 0.1% of fund |
| Price T Rowe Associates /Md/ | $2.1B | 0.2% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.9B | 0.1% of fund |
| State Street | $1.8B | 0.1% of fund |
95 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 165 Form 4 filings, net −$26.5M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 8 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about ODFL
Orin answers questions about ODFL from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 33.6× | 32.1× | 44.5× |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.9× | 20.0× | — |
| P/S | 6.49× | 6.53× | — |
| P/B | 8.0× | 8.9× | — |
Its P/E sits 60th percentile of its own last 5 years (+0.18σ from its own mean).
16.5%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $1.0B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$235
$200 – $263 · +34% against today's price
- 13 buy or overweight
- 19 hold
- 4 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ODFLOld Dominion Freight Line, Inc. | $36B | 33.6× | 19.9× | 31.7% | 19.4% | 25% |
| BEBloom Energy Corporation | $79B | 319.0× | 224.9× | 31.2% | 7.9% | 25% |
| DOVDover Corporation | $25B | 22.5× | 14.9× | 39.6% | 13.5% | 15% |
| EFXEquifax Inc. | $17B | 26.0× | 12.0× | 44.4% | 10.7% | 15% |
| EMEEMCOR Group, Inc. | $33B | 23.5× | 14.7× | 19.7% | 7.7% | 38% |
| FIXComfort Systems USA, Inc. | $58B | 40.4× | 28.8× | 25.7% | 12.8% | 54% |
| HUBBHubbell Incorporated | $25B | 27.5× | 20.2× | 35.2% | 14.5% | 24% |
| IRIngersoll Rand Inc. | $29B | 30.5× | 16.7× | 37.9% | 12.1% | 9% |
| UALUnited Airlines Holdings, Inc. | $36B | 10.4× | 7.1× | 65.1% | 5.6% | 23% |
| VLTOVeralto Corporation | $23B | 24.1× | 18.3× | 60.2% | 17.3% | 33% |
| WABWestinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation | $49B | 38.9× | 22.6× | 34.3% | 10.6% | 11% |
The median is of the 10 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 25.9% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $66 | $234.10 · −72% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $59 | $234.10 · −75% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.