ONEOK, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
ONEOK remains a buy at $93.31 as of 16 Oct, trading at a 34.6% P/E discount to the peer median (16.1x vs 24.6x) while delivering 55.4% revenue growth in FY2025 and a Q2 2026 EPS beat of $1.53 vs $1.46 estimated.
The recently closed $4.425B Brazos Midland Basin acquisition extends the company's gathering footprint, and operating cash flow of $5.6B in FY2025 comfortably covers the $4.28 annualized dividend. Margin compression — FCF margin fell to 7.3% in FY2025 from 13.3% in FY2024 as capex surged to $3.2B — and $32.8B in total debt are the principal offsets, but the stock's relative valuation and cash-flow coverage leave room for upside.
What could go wrong
- Leverage and integration risk. Total debt of $32.8B at FY2025 year-end, up from $21.8B at FY2023, with EV/EBITDA at 11.6x; the $4.425B Brazos acquisition adds further balance-sheet strain.
- Margin compression. FY2025 gross margin fell to 21.5% from 23.3% in FY2024 and 32.5% in FY2023, while FCF margin compressed to 7.3% from 13.3% as capex rose to $3.2B.
- EPS growth lagging revenue growth. FY2025 EPS grew only 4.8% to $5.42 despite 55.4% revenue growth, suggesting acquisition dilution and higher interest costs are constraining bottom-line leverage.
- Commodity-sensitive volumes. Midstream throughput depends on producer activity in the Mid-Continent, Rocky Mountain, and Permian regions; a downturn in drilling could pressure gathering and processing volumes.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: peer comparison · FY25 fundamentals · earnings vs estimates · news, 6 Oct. Orin's read on OKE; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 38.6% over twelve months, from $69.29 on 27 Oct 2025 to $96.01 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $97.51 on 8 Sep 2026; the last close is 1.5% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 19.4M, on 20 Mar 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All OKE filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $5.6B | 0.1% |
| State Street | $3.8B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $3.6B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.7B | 0.1% |
| Charles Schwab Investment Management | $1.8B | 0.2% |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.5B | 0.1% |
| Morgan Stanley | $1.0B | 0.1% |
| Invesco | $821.6M | 0.1% |
| Norges Bank | $574.3M | 0.1% |
| Goldman Sachs Group | $573.0M | 0.0% |
106 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 88 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net $165K. Of the 50 on hand, none was an open-market trade — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about OKE
Orin answers questions about OKE from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 16.5× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 2 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 17.1×); the typical Energy company on the NYSE is at 17.6×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 16.5×near usual | 17.1× | 17.6× |
| P/S | 1.54×near usual | 1.52× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.8×near usual | 12.1× | — |
| P/B | 2.6×below usual | 3.5× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $99.73 (from $88 to $112) — 4% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$99.73
$88 – $112 · +4% against the last close
- 4 buy or overweight
- 9 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 16.5× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 7 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 23.9×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OKEONEOK, Inc. | $61B | 16.5× | 11.8× | 21.8% | 9.3% | 16% |
| AMAntero Midstream Corporation | $10B | 25.1× | 14.0× | 62.9% | 30.4% | 20% |
| DTMDT Midstream, Inc. | $13B | 27.9× | 14.9× | 63.2% | 35.7% | 10% |
| HESMHess Midstream LP | $7B | 10.9× | 8.3× | 80.8% | 23.3% | 69% |
| KMIKinder Morgan, Inc. | $75B | 20.9× | 14.0× | 56.7% | 19.6% | 11% |
| TRGPTarga Resources Corp. | $58B | 23.9× | 15.2× | 39.5% | 13.5% | 72% |
| WESWestern Midstream Partners, LP | $16B | 12.7× | 10.8× | 65.0% | 27.7% | 32% |
| WMBThe Williams Companies, Inc. | $91B | 29.4× | 15.8× | 73.6% | 25.2% | 24% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 16.5× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now16.5×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Energy companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 17.6× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now17.6×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $223 a share — 133% above the $95.74 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $223 | 133% above $95.74 |
| Levered | $233 | 143% above $95.74 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.