ONEOK, Inc. OKE
ONEOK screens cheap on equity multiples at 16.5x P/E versus a peer median of 28.2x, and management raised 2026 guidance on project start-ups and an AI data-center power deal, but the thesis is balanced by $32.8B of total debt that pushes EV/EBITDA to 11.8x—roughly 19% above the peer median—and free cash flow that compressed to $2.4B in FY2025 as capex stepped up to $3.2B. Smart money has faded from a score of +0.061 in Q1 2026 to -0.0028 as of the quarter ended 2026-06-30 with fund count falling from 64 to 57, and the stock has run above both its 50-day ($90.04) and 200-day ($83.32) moving averages to $96.01 with RSI at 63.3, limiting near-term entry appeal.
Hold pending evidence that FCF is recovering or a pullback to a better risk/reward level.
What could go wrong
- Leverage overhang. Total debt of $32.8B against stockholders' equity of $22.5B keeps EV/EBITDA at 11.8x, a ~19% premium to the peer median of 9.9x, limiting financial flexibility.
- FCF compression. Free cash flow fell to $2.4B in FY2025 from $2.9B in FY2024 as capex rose to $3.2B, shrinking FCF margin to 7.3% from 13.3%.
- Institutional outflows. Smart money score turned slightly negative at -0.0028 as of 2026-06-30, down from +0.061 in Q1 2026, with fund count declining from 64 to 57.
- Valuation re-rating risk. Stock trades at $96.01, above both MA50 ($90.04) and MA200 ($83.32) with RSI at 63.3, suggesting much of the raised-guidance and AI-catalyst news may be priced in.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: peer_relative · peer_relative · fundamentals FY2025 · fundamentals FY2025 and FY2024. Orin's read on OKE; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All OKE filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| State Street | $3.8B | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $3.6B | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $2.7B | 0.1% of fund |
| Charles Schwab Investment Management | $1.8B | 0.2% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.5B | 0.1% of fund |
| Morgan Stanley | $1.0B | 0.1% of fund |
103 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 72 Form 4 filings, net $467K. Of the 50 on hand, 1 was an open-market purchase and 0 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about OKE
Orin answers questions about OKE from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 15.6× | 17.1× | 51.1× |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.4× | 12.1× | — |
| P/S | 1.45× | 1.52× | — |
| P/B | 2.5× | 3.5× | — |
Its P/E sits 40th percentile of its own last 5 years (−0.20σ from its own mean).
9.8%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $2.4B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$99
$88 – $112 · +8% against today's price
- 17 buy or overweight
- 22 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OKEONEOK, Inc. | $57B | 15.6× | 11.4× | 21.8% | 9.3% | 16% |
| FANGDiamondback Energy, Inc. | $52B | 36.3× | 9.0× | 44.5% | 9.3% | 4% |
| OXYOccidental Petroleum Corporation | $57B | 8.6× | 4.8× | 43.4% | 28.8% | 19% |
| TRGPTarga Resources Corp. | $61B | 26.9× | 16.8× | 36.6% | 13.5% | 72% |
The median is of the 3 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 42.0% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $251 | $91.47 · +175% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $263 | $91.47 · +187% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.