Universal Display Corporation
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Universal Display remains a hold ahead of its Q3 2026 earnings release on October 28, as the company has posted double-digit revenue declines in three of the last four reported quarters — Q1 2026 revenue fell 14.5% YoY and Q2 2026 fell 11.4% YoY — yet trades at just 17.6x P/E and 12.6x EV/EBITDA, roughly 68% and 59% below peer medians, supported by a 76.3% gross margin, near-zero debt of $19.2M, and a May 2026 insider cluster buy by three insiders totaling ~$1.5M.
The stock at $72.90 sits well below both its 50-day ($82.26) and 200-day ($95.10) moving averages with an RSI of 36.9, reflecting the market's skepticism about near-term demand. The cheap valuation and strong IP moat argue against selling, but consecutive quarterly revenue deterioration and a sharp Q1 2026 earnings miss (EPS $0.76 vs estimate $1.13) warrant waiting for evidence of a volume inflection before adding.
What could go wrong
- Continued revenue erosion. Three of the last four quarters showed double-digit YoY revenue declines (Q1 2026 -14.5%, Q3 2025 -13.6%, Q2 2026 -11.4%); if Q3 2026 continues this pattern, the cheap multiple may not provide sufficient downside support.
- Earnings volatility. EPS surprises have been highly inconsistent, ranging from +24% (Q2 2025) to -33% (Q1 2026), making forward estimates unreliable and increasing the risk of a negative surprise at the October 28 report.
- Technical downtrend. Stock at $72.90 trades 11% below the 50-day MA ($82.26) and 23% below the 200-day MA ($95.10), with no clear reversal signal despite a slightly positive MACD histogram.
- Smart money indifference. Smart money score as of Q2 2026 is a near-neutral 0.00 with fund count declining from 51 to 50 quarter-over-quarter, suggesting institutional conviction is not building.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: quarterly results · peer comparison · FY25 fundamentals · insider trades. Orin's read on OLED; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 40.0% over twelve months, from $150.67 on 27 Oct 2025 to $90.36 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $150.67 on 27 Oct 2025; the last close is 40.0% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 3.5M, on 1 May 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All OLED filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $373.9M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $257.3M | 0.0% |
| State Street | $190.3M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $172.0M | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $112.0M | 0.0% |
| AllianceBernstein | $107.5M | 0.0% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $74.8M | 0.0% |
| Franklin Resources | $71.1M | 0.0% |
| AQR Capital Management | $63.0M | 0.0% |
| Sora Investors | $60.7M | 4.7% |
66 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 208 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net $670K. Of the 50 on hand, 7 were open-market purchases and 2 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about OLED
Orin answers questions about OLED from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 21.8× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — lower than in all 5 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 31.4×); the typical Technology company on the NASDAQ is at 46.1×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 21.8×below usual | 31.4× | 46.1× |
| P/S | 6.84×below usual | 10.7× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.7×below usual | 21.7× | — |
| P/B | 2.5×below usual | 4.3× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $120 (from $90 to $168) — 32% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$120
$90 – $168 · +32% against the last close
- 2 buy or overweight
- 1 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 21.8× its last 12 months of profit. Only 1 of the 1 companies it is compared to made a profit (KOPN 85.1×), so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OLEDUniversal Display Corporation | $4B | 21.8× | 15.7× | 75.3% | 32.2% | 11% |
| KOPNKopin Corp. | $699M | 85.1× | n/m | 41.9% | 18.1% | 14% |
- KOPN: EV/EBITDA is not meaningful (n/m) — its cash exceeds its market value plus debt, or the business lost money before depreciation.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 21.8× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now21.8×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Technology companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 46.1× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now46.1×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $45 a share — 49% below the $89.41 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $45 | 49% below $89.41 |
| Levered | $43 | 52% below $89.41 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.