Universal Display Corporation OLED
Universal Display trades at 21.4x P/E and 15.5x EV/EBITDA — roughly 56% and 55% below peer medians — supported by a ~76% gross margin, near-zero debt ($19M vs $1.76B equity), and FY2025 EPS of $5.08 up 9% YoY. However, revenue growth has stalled at just 0.5% YoY ($650.6M vs $647.7M), Q2 material sales weakened, and management lowered its 2026 outlook, leaving the recovery dependent on demand improvement.
After a 19.7% one-month rally to $88.92, the stock sits above its 50-day MA ($84.91) but still 14% below its 200-day MA ($103.27), with positive MACD momentum offset by declining smart money scores (0.0045 → 0.0016 since March 2025). The risk/reward is balanced; the cheap valuation and $20B OLED capacity thesis warrant staying invested, but softening near-term fundamentals argue against adding until material volumes inflect.
What could go wrong
- Material sales deterioration. Q2 material sales weakness and lower 2026 guidance suggest demand softness could persist, pressuring the high-margin revenue stream that drives the bulk of profitability.
- Smart money outflow. Smart money score has declined from 0.0045 in March 2025 to 0.0016 as of June 2026, with fund count dropping from 50 to 49, indicating waning institutional conviction.
- Revenue stagnation. FY2025 revenue of $650.6M represents only 0.5% growth over FY2024's $647.7M, and is barely above FY2022's $616.6M, raising questions about the growth premium the stock deserves.
- Technical overhead. Stock trades 14% below its 200-day MA of $103.27, creating significant overhead resistance that could cap the recent 19.7% rally.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: peer_relative · FMP fundamentals · FMP fundamentals · FMP fundamentals FY2025. Orin's read on OLED; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All OLED filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $257.3M | 0.0% of fund |
| State Street | $190.3M | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $172.0M | 0.0% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $112.0M | 0.0% of fund |
| Alliancebernstein L.P | $107.5M | 0.0% of fund |
| Jpmorgan Chase & | $74.8M | 0.0% of fund |
65 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 209 Form 4 filings, net −$12.1M. Of the 50 on hand, 7 were open-market purchases and 2 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about OLED
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Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 17.7× | — | 53.3× |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.7× | — | — |
| P/S | 5.56× | — | — |
| P/B | 2.0× | — | — |
9.8%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.1B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$123
$90 – $168 · +61% against today's price
- 12 buy or overweight
- 7 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OLEDUniversal Display Corporation | $3B | 17.7× | 12.7× | 75.3% | 32.2% | 11% |
| AMKRAmkor Technology, Inc. | $13B | 23.5× | 10.1× | 15.5% | 7.4% | 12% |
| CAMTCamtek Ltd. | $7B | 181.4× | 236.6× | 50.1% | 7.4% | 6% |
| CGNXCognex Corporation | $10B | 55.0× | 33.6× | 68.9% | 16.1% | 11% |
| CRUSCirrus Logic, Inc. | $6B | 14.1× | 9.7× | 52.8% | 21.0% | 20% |
| KDKyndryl Holdings, Inc. | $3B | 7.9× | 2.4× | 21.9% | 1.3% | 29% |
| ONTOOnto Innovation Inc. | $14B | 104.4× | 53.4× | 50.4% | 11.8% | 7% |
| SANMSanmina Corporation | $12B | 38.9× | 18.7× | 9.0% | 2.4% | 13% |
| SITMSiTime Corporation | $17B | — | 316.5× | 58.7% | 3.0% | 1% |
| SMTCSemtech Corporation | $16B | 105.3× | 140.1× | 52.0% | 13.1% | 25% |
| TTMITTM Technologies, Inc. | $13B | 55.7× | 27.9× | 20.7% | 7.0% | 13% |
The median is of the 9 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 67.8% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.