Olin Corporation
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Olin remains a cyclical trough story where the pending Huntsman merger of equals — having cleared U.S. antitrust with over $400M in expected synergies and a first-half 2027 close target — plus the $788.4M Army ammunition contract through September 2031 provide credible recovery catalysts.
However, fundamentals stay weak: FY2025 produced a $42.8M net loss with gross margin at 7.4%, and Q2 2026 still posted a $13.3M net loss with revenue declining year over year. At $14.89, the stock trades at 0.25x sales versus a 1.27x peer median with RSI at 29.62, but persistent losses, $3.14B of debt against a $1.84B equity base, and net insider selling of $2.5M over 24 months argue for patience until the Q3 2026 earnings report on October 30 clarifies whether sequential improvement is sustaining.
What could go wrong
- Balance sheet leverage. Total debt of $3.14B against stockholders' equity of $1.84B as of FY2025, with losses eroding the equity base.
- Margin compression. Gross margin collapsed from 25.7% in FY2021 to 7.4% in FY2025 with no clear inflection in quarterly data through Q2 2026.
- Merger execution risk. The Huntsman merger must still close and deliver over $400M in synergies; integration risk in a cyclical downturn is elevated.
- Revenue erosion. Q1 2026 and Q2 2026 both showed year-over-year revenue declines, indicating demand weakness persists across segments.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FY25 fundamentals · Q2 2026 results · technicals · peer comparison. Orin's read on OLN; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Down 31.1% over twelve months, from $24.02 on 27 Oct 2025 to $16.56 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $30.14 on 7 Apr 2026; the last close is 45.1% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 22.3M, on 5 Oct 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All OLN filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Hotchkis & Wiley Capital Management | $317.5M | 0.9% |
| BlackRock | $237.5M | 0.0% |
| AQR Capital Management | $109.2M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $108.0M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $101.8M | 0.0% |
| State Street | $95.1M | 0.0% |
| Goldman Sachs Group | $50.5M | 0.0% |
| Citadel Advisors | $44.3M | 0.0% |
| Semper Augustus Investments Group | $42.7M | 4.8% |
| Geode Capital Management | $41.8M | 0.0% |
67 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 114 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$2.0M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 2 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about OLN
Orin answers questions about OLN from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
It lost money over the last 12 months, so it has no P/E (Tue 27 Oct close). It is priced at 0.28× its yearly sales — below its usual level (0.82×).
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | lost money | — | 22.4× |
| P/S | 0.28×below usual | 0.82× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.5×above usual | 7.4× | — |
| P/B | 1.1×below usual | 3.0× | — |
- P/E: no usual level — it ran from 5.8× to 36.7× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- P/E: lost money — no P/E over the last 12 months.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $19.22 (from $15 to $30) — 16% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$19.22
$15 – $30 · +16% against the last close
- 1 buy or overweight
- 11 hold
- 2 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
It lost money over the last 12 months, so it has no P/E; the middle P/E of the 10 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 24.5×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OLNOlin Corporation | $2B | lost money | 10.5× | 6.9% | −2.1% | −8% |
| ASHAshland Inc. | $3B | 63.8× | 11.5× | 29.4% | 2.8% | 3% |
| AXTAAxalta Coating Systems Ltd. | $7B | 21.2× | 10.0× | 32.6% | 6.8% | 15% |
| CBTCabot Corp. | $4B | 20.5× | 7.0× | 22.9% | 5.2% | 12% |
| DDDuPont de Nemours, Inc. | $19B | 299× | 13.3× | 34.4% | 0.7% | 0% |
| ECVTEcovyst Inc. | $1B | 30.8× | 9.7× | 19.5% | 3.7% | 6% |
| EMNEastman Chemical Company | $8B | 17.1× | 9.5× | 19.9% | 5.0% | 7% |
| ESIElement Solutions Inc | $9B | 41.4× | 22.3× | 36.6% | 5.9% | 7% |
| FULH.B. Fuller Company | $3B | 13.6× | 8.6× | 32.8% | 5.6% | 10% |
| KROKronos Worldwide, Inc. | $813M | lost money | 9.9× | 15.3% | −1.9% | −5% |
| KWRQuaker Houghton | $3B | 27.9× | 13.3× | 34.4% | 4.9% | 7% |
| MTXMinerals Technologies Inc. | $2B | lost money | 33.5× | 24.5% | −3.1% | −4% |
| RPMRPM International Inc. | $13B | 18.1× | 11.8× | 41.2% | 8.7% | 21% |
| WLKWestlake Corporation | $8B | lost money | 18.2× | 5.9% | −3.9% | −5% |
- KRO, MTX, WLK: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
It has lost money and has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so it has no P/E history.
- Nowlost money
- Now: no P/E — it lost money over the last 12 months.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Basic Materials companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 22.4× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now22.4×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $75 a share — 360% above the $16.23 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $75 | 360% above $16.23 |
| Levered | $53 | 223% above $16.23 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.