ON Semiconductor Corporation ON
ON Semiconductor shows early signs of cyclical recovery — Q2 2026 revenue of $1.604B grew 9% year-over-year with operating margin expanding to 20.8% and AI data center revenue expected to more than double in 2026 — but FY2025's severe deterioration (revenue $5.995B, EPS $0.29, gross margin 32.3%, operating margin 12.5%) and a still-rich 50.3x P/E trading 7.7% above the peer median argue for patience until the inflection is confirmed across multiple quarters. Smart money score improved to 0.0488 as of Q2 2026 from 0.0189 a year earlier with fund count rising to 65 from 56, and the stock holds above its 200-day MA of $76.73, but it remains 16% below its 50-day MA of $95.22 with RSI near 41, reflecting unresolved technical weakness amid a promising but unproven turnaround.
What could go wrong
- Valuation premium. P/E of 50.27 and EV/EBITDA of 25.19 trade 7.7% and 18.1% above peer medians respectively, leaving little room for execution missteps.
- Margin collapse not yet reversed. FY2025 gross margin fell to 32.3% from 45.4% in FY2024 and operating margin to 12.5% from 25.0%; Q2 2026 non-GAAP gross margin of 39.3% shows improvement but remains below prior-cycle levels.
- Persistent insider selling. Net insider selling of $32.8M over 24 months across 70 transactions, with net shares of -38,733, signals limited insider conviction in the recovery.
- Cyclical demand fragility. Revenue declined for three consecutive years from $8.33B in FY2022 to $5.995B in FY2025; any stall in AI data center or automotive demand could prolong the trough.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Seeking Alpha news article, 2026-08-06 · Defense World news article, 2026-08-05 · MarketBeat news article, 2026-08-16 · FMP fundamentals FY2025 + derived_metrics. Orin's read on ON; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All ON filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Fmr | $5.4B | 0.2% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $2.4B | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.9B | 0.1% of fund |
| State Street | $1.8B | 0.1% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.0B | 0.1% of fund |
| Jpmorgan Chase & | $897.1M | 0.0% of fund |
102 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 70 Form 4 filings, net −$32.8M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 12 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about ON
Orin answers questions about ON from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 46.3× | 17.1× | 53.3× |
| EV/EBITDA | 23.3× | 11.4× | — |
| P/S | 4.59× | 3.80× | — |
| P/B | 4.0× | 4.4× | — |
Its P/E sits 80th percentile of its own last 5 years (−0.09σ from its own mean).
7.8%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $1.4B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$100
$62 – $150 · +30% against today's price
- 24 buy or overweight
- 22 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ONON Semiconductor Corporation | $28B | 46.3× | 23.3× | 37.4% | 10.2% | 8% |
| CDWCDW Corporation | $18B | 16.7× | 12.8× | 21.4% | 4.6% | 43% |
| ENTGEntegris, Inc. | $23B | 74.3× | 30.1× | 45.5% | 9.2% | 8% |
| JJacobs Solutions Inc. | $16B | 47.2× | 20.9× | 22.1% | 2.4% | 10% |
| STMSTMicroelectronics N.V. | $46B | 97.1× | 20.3× | 34.3% | 3.5% | 3% |
| TYLTyler Technologies, Inc. | $13B | 42.8× | 29.2× | 46.6% | 13.4% | 9% |
| UMCUnited Microelectronics Corporation | $60B | 23.0× | 12.0× | 30.6% | 33.3% | 21% |
The median is of the 6 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 2.9% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $22 | $109.37 · −80% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $19 | $109.37 · −82% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.