ON Semiconductor Corporation
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
ON Semiconductor is navigating an early-stage cyclical recovery — Q2 2026 revenue of $1.604B grew 9.2% YoY with operating income of $258.6M and EPS of $0.56, a sharp rebound from Q1 2026's operating loss of $53.4M — but the stock at $77.53 trades at roughly 49x trailing P/E, in line with the peer median of 50.5x, leaving little margin of safety after FY2025's collapse to a 1.4% operating margin and $0.29 EPS.
The revised $5.7B all-cash Synaptics acquisition at $123/share removes the prior dilution overhang and has been well-received, but it adds meaningful leverage on top of existing total debt of $3.47B as of FY2025, and insider dispositions (net -301,923 shares over 24 months, including a Group President sale of 15,578 shares at $80 on October 1) alongside a slightly negative smart money score of -0.02 as of Q2 2026 temper enthusiasm. With technicals neutral (RSI 49.6, price below the 200-day MA of $81.14) and Stifel maintaining a Hold with an $80 target, the risk/reward is balanced until Q3 2026 results confirm sustained margin recovery.
What could go wrong
- Synaptics integration and leverage. The $5.7B cash acquisition adds significant debt on top of FY2025 total debt of $3.47B; integration execution risk and potential synergies shortfall could pressure the balance sheet.
- Fragile margin recovery. FY2025 operating margin collapsed to 1.4% from 25.0% in FY2024; Q1 2026 still posted an operating loss of $53.4M, and a demand setback could reverse Q2's improvement.
- Insider selling signal. Net insider dispositions of 301,923 shares worth $22.3M over 24 months with zero open-market acquisitions, including a Group President sale at $80 on October 1, 2026.
- Valuation compression risk. At 49x trailing P/E and 4.87x price-to-sales, ON trades near peer medians despite a severely depressed earnings base; any disappointment in the recovery trajectory could trigger de-rating.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Q2 FY26 results · Q1 FY26 results · FY25 fundamentals · technicals and peer comparison, 9 Oct. Orin's read on ON; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 49.3% over twelve months, from $52.68 on 27 Oct 2025 to $78.67 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $133.93 on 3 Jun 2026; the last close is 41.3% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 45.5M, on 19 Dec 2025).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All ON filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| FMR | $5.4B | 0.2% |
| BlackRock | $3.9B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $2.4B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.9B | 0.1% |
| State Street | $1.8B | 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.0B | 0.1% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $897.1M | 0.0% |
| Goldman Sachs Group | $744.8M | 0.1% |
| Norges Bank | $742.8M | 0.1% |
| Bank of America | $593.3M | 0.0% |
104 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 72 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$22.3M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 13 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about ON
Orin answers questions about ON from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 49.8× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close); the typical Technology company on the NASDAQ is at 46.1×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 49.8× | — | 46.1× |
| P/S | 4.94×above usual | 3.80× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 20.5×above usual | 11.4× | — |
| P/B | 4.3×near usual | 4.4× | — |
- P/E: no usual level — it ran from 14.2× to 187× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $100 (from $62 to $150) — 27% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$100
$62 – $150 · +27% against the last close
- 11 buy or overweight
- 12 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 49.8× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 8 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 44.0×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ONON Semiconductor Corporation | $31B | 49.8× | 20.5× | 37.4% | 10.2% | 8% |
| ADIAnalog Devices, Inc. | $206B | 50.2× | 30.3× | 65.8% | 29.8% | 12% |
| AOSLAlpha and Omega Semiconductor Limited | $560M | lost money | n/m | 22.6% | −6.9% | −6% |
| DIODDiodes Incorporated | $3B | 27.1× | 12.1× | 33.3% | 6.5% | 6% |
| MPWRMonolithic Power Systems, Inc. | $60B | 73.9× | 56.1× | 55.2% | 24.4% | 22% |
| NXPINXP Semiconductors N.V. | $64B | 19.8× | 14.2× | 56.3% | 23.4% | 29% |
| POWIPower Integrations, Inc. | $2B | 48.0× | 30.2× | 53.9% | 9.8% | 7% |
| STMSTMicroelectronics N.V. | $43B | 91.8× | 19.2× | 34.3% | 3.5% | 3% |
| TXNTexas Instruments Incorporated | $282B | 40.0× | 26.6× | 60.2% | 34.3% | 41% |
| VSHVishay Intertechnology, Inc. | $3B | 31.6× | 6.4× | 22.2% | 2.4% | 4% |
- AOSL: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- AOSL: EV/EBITDA is not meaningful (n/m) — its cash exceeds its market value plus debt, or the business lost money before depreciation.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 49.8× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now49.8×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Technology companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 46.1× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now46.1×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $20 a share — 74% below the $78.22 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $20 | 74% below $78.22 |
| Levered | $18 | 77% below $78.22 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.