Onto Innovation Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Onto Innovation's fundamentals are inflecting positively — Q2 FY2026 revenue of $343.1M grew 35.3% YoY, backlog more than doubled to $1.1B, and management is guiding Q3 revenue to $380M–$400M with non-GAAP EPS of $2.18–$2.38, driven by AI/HBM advanced packaging demand and Dragonfly G5 adoption.
However, the stock has broken down technically, closing at $220.70 as of 16 Oct — well below both the 50-day MA of $285.79 and 200-day MA of $259.56 with RSI at 29.0 — and the trailing PE of 82.4x still carries an 83% premium to the peer median of 45.0x. Persistent insider selling (net $19.3M over 24 months with zero open-market acquisitions) and a slightly negative smart money score of -0.01 as of Q2 2026 add caution. The ~27% correction from recent highs has improved the risk/reward, but the stock needs to stabilize technically and confirm Q3 guidance before committing new capital.
What could go wrong
- Valuation compression. At 82.4x trailing PE versus a peer median of 45.0x, any disappointment in Q3 results or guidance could trigger further de-rating, especially with the stock already in a technical downtrend.
- Technical breakdown persists. Price at $220.70 is below both the 50-day ($285.79) and 200-day ($259.56) moving averages with deeply negative MACD histogram of -9.52 and RSI at 29.0, suggesting the downtrend may not be exhausted despite oversold conditions.
- Insider selling overhang. Over 24 months, insiders have net sold 90,165 shares worth $19.3M with zero open-market acquisitions; recent September 2026 dispositions occurred at $254–$300 per share, well above the current price.
- Margin recovery fragility. FY2025 operating margin compressed to 13.2% from 19.0% in FY2024 and EPS fell 31.5% YoY to $2.78; while Q2 FY2026 showed recovery to an 18.5% operating margin, one quarter does not establish a trend.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: results, quarter to 30 Jun · news, 9 Oct · news, 16 Oct · peer comparison, 16 Oct. Orin's read on ONTO; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 59.5% over twelve months, from $134.30 on 27 Oct 2025 to $214.17 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $378.45 on 30 Jun 2026; the last close is 43.4% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 5.0M, on 19 May 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All ONTO filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $2.1B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.0B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $850.7M | 0.0% |
| State Street | $588.1M | 0.0% |
| Geode Capital Management | $542.7M | 0.0% |
| Invesco | $511.6M | 0.0% |
| Point72 Asset Management | $367.9M | 0.4% |
| FMR | $334.3M | 0.0% |
| T. Rowe Price Associates | $322.9M | 0.0% |
| Norges Bank | $245.9M | 0.0% |
93 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 117 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$19.3M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 2 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about ONTO
Orin answers questions about ONTO from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 79.9× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in all 5 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 41.7×); the typical Technology company on the NYSE is at 39.5×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 79.9×above usual | 41.7× | 39.5× |
| P/S | 9.38×above usual | 8.11× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 43.2×above usual | 29.1× | — |
| P/B | 5.5×above usual | 3.9× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $391 (from $350 to $450) — 83% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$391
$350 – $450 · +83% against the last close
- 9 buy or overweight
- 0 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 79.9× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 7 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 35.7×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ONTOOnto Innovation Inc. | $11B | 79.9× | 43.2× | 50.4% | 11.8% | 7% |
| AMATApplied Materials, Inc. | $314B | 33.9× | 27.3× | 49.4% | 30.1% | 40% |
| ASMLASML Holding N.V. | $630B | 42.0× | 34.2× | 54.3% | 34.1% | 64% |
| CAMTCamtek Ltd. | $4B | 31.9× | 34.0× | 50.0% | 24.6% | 19% |
| KLACKLA Corporation | $201B | 41.7× | 33.9× | 61.3% | 35.6% | 85% |
| LRCXLam Research Corporation | $301B | 35.7× | 29.3× | 51.1% | 32.3% | 72% |
| NVMINova Ltd. | $9B | 34.7× | 31.1× | 57.1% | 28.8% | 20% |
| VECOVeeco Instruments Inc. | $2B | 78.6× | 39.8× | 37.4% | 3.6% | 3% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 79.9× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now79.9×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Technology companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 39.5× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now39.5×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $61 a share — 72% below the $215.52 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $61 | 72% below $215.52 |
| Levered | $68 | 68% below $215.52 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.