Onto Innovation Inc. ONTO
Onto Innovation remains a hold after pulling back below its 50-day MA to $291.62, as the AI-driven advanced packaging thesis is credible — backed by a record $1.1B-plus backlog, raised H2 guidance, BlackRock's new 11.07% position, and the $720M Rigaku stake opening X-ray process control — but FY2025 results show the earnings power has yet to materialize, with EPS collapsing to $2.78 from $4.06 and operating margin compressing to 13.2% from 18.95%. At 108.8x trailing earnings, a 405% premium to the peer median PE of 21.5x, the stock already prices in a margin recovery that the income statement has not yet delivered, and the negative MACD histogram plus sub-50 RSI signal waning near-term momentum.
The risk/reward is balanced enough to wait for proof of operating leverage before committing new capital.
What could go wrong
- Valuation compression. At 108.8x trailing PE and 55.6x EV/EBITDA versus peer medians of 21.5x and 15.6x respectively, any guidance cut or margin miss could trigger a sharp de-rating.
- Margin recovery stalls. FY2025 operating margin fell to 13.2% from 18.95% in FY2024 while gross margin slipped to 49.7% from 52.2%; if the backlog conversion does not restore margins, the premium multiple is unjustified.
- Insider selling persists. Over 24 months insiders net sold $33.0M in value across 120 transactions, with the most recent sale on 2026-08-21 at $302.30 — hardly a confidence signal at these levels.
- Semiconductor cycle risk. Revenue growth was only 1.8% in FY2025 after 21% in FY2024, and a downturn in advanced packaging or memory capex could pressure the record backlog before it converts.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals, fiscal year ended 2026-01-03 · derived_metrics, FY2025 vs FY2024 · peer_relative composite · technicals as of 2026-08-25. Orin's read on ONTO; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All ONTO filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.0B | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $850.7M | 0.0% of fund |
| State Street | $588.1M | 0.0% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $542.7M | 0.0% of fund |
| Invesco | $511.6M | 0.0% of fund |
| Point72 Asset Management, L.P | $367.9M | 0.4% of fund |
91 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 118 Form 4 filings, net −$33.8M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 1 a sale— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about ONTO
Orin answers questions about ONTO from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 104.4× | — | 53.3× |
| EV/EBITDA | 53.4× | — | — |
| P/S | 12.42× | — | — |
| P/B | 7.2× | — | — |
19.2%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.3B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$386
$350 – $450 · +35% against today's price
- 12 buy or overweight
- 0 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ONTOOnto Innovation Inc. | $14B | 104.4× | 53.4× | 50.4% | 11.8% | 7% |
| CAMTCamtek Ltd. | $7B | 181.4× | 236.6× | 50.1% | 7.4% | 6% |
| CRUSCirrus Logic, Inc. | $6B | 14.1× | 9.7× | 52.8% | 21.0% | 20% |
| KDKyndryl Holdings, Inc. | $3B | 7.9× | 2.4× | 21.9% | 1.3% | 29% |
| OLEDUniversal Display Corporation | $3B | 17.7× | 12.7× | 75.3% | 32.2% | 11% |
| SMTCSemtech Corporation | $16B | 105.3× | 140.1× | 52.0% | 13.1% | 25% |
The median is of the 5 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 489.8% above it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.