O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. ORLY
O'Reilly Automotive continues to grow revenue at 6.42% YoY (fiscal 2025) with stable gross margins near 51.6%, and EPS rose 9.59% to $2.97, but free cash flow has deteriorated sharply from $2.76B in 2021 to $1.59B in 2025 as capex climbed to $1.17B and total debt reached $8.49B against negative stockholders' equity of -$763M. At 28.49x P/E the stock trades below the broad peer median of 37.27x yet at a meaningful premium to closest comp AutoZone at 20.30x, offering limited margin of safety.
With the stock below its 200-day moving average of $92.57 and a negative MACD histogram, technicals are neutral-to-soft while smart money sits only modestly positive at 0.0219 as of the quarter ended 2026-06-30.
What could go wrong
- FCF and leverage deterioration. Free cash flow fell from $2.76B (2021) to $1.59B (2025) while total debt rose to $8.49B and stockholders' equity is negative at -$763M, raising sustainability concerns around debt-funded buybacks.
- Valuation premium to closest comp. ORLY's P/E of 28.49x is well above AutoZone's 20.30x; if the market re-rates toward the direct peer, downside is significant.
- Competitive pressure from distressed peers. Advance Auto Parts plunged 21% on a Q2 2026 revenue miss and negative comparable sales, signaling potential share-shift dynamics that could pressure industry pricing.
- Insider selling pattern. Recent insider activity shows option exercises followed by open-market sales (Dumas sold 84,600 shares at $92.60 on 2026-05-20; Sastre sold 2,000 shares at $91.85 on 2026-08-12), with no cluster buy detected.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP fiscal year 2025; derived_metrics · FMP annual fundamentals · FMP fiscal year 2025 · peer_relative composite. Orin's read on ORLY; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All ORLY filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $5.0B | 0.1% of fund |
| State Street | $3.4B | 0.1% of fund |
| Invesco | $2.5B | 0.2% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $2.2B | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.5B | 0.1% of fund |
| Morgan Stanley | $1.4B | 0.1% of fund |
120 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 85 Form 4 filings, net $202K. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 8 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about ORLY
Orin answers questions about ORLY from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 27.2× | 25.0× | 79.6× |
| EV/EBITDA | 20.0× | 18.3× | — |
| P/S | 3.85× | 3.77× | — |
Its P/E sits 60th percentile of its own last 5 years (+0.30σ from its own mean).
18.7%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $1.6B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$107
$98 – $115 · +25% against today's price
- 28 buy or overweight
- 18 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORLYO'Reilly Automotive, Inc. | $71B | 27.2× | 20.0× | 51.6% | 14.3% | -232% |
| ABNBAirbnb, Inc. | $90B | 34.3× | 28.4× | 78.0% | 20.4% | 33% |
| AZOAutoZone, Inc. | $47B | 18.3× | 14.1× | 52.3% | 12.6% | -90% |
| CVNACarvana Co. | $70B | 22.2× | — | 19.4% | 6.3% | 47% |
| GMGeneral Motors Company | $73B | 40.3× | 13.7× | 5.7% | 1.0% | 3% |
| HLTHilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. | $70B | 45.4× | 26.9× | 44.1% | 12.7% | -28% |
| MARMarriott International, Inc. | $92B | 36.6× | 23.1× | 20.2% | 9.6% | -67% |
| NKENIKE, Inc. | $53B | 17.1× | 12.1× | 42.9% | 6.7% | 22% |
| RCLRoyal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. | $64B | 14.7× | 12.0× | 46.6% | 23.6% | 44% |
| SBUXStarbucks Corporation | $107B | 53.8× | 21.4× | 31.7% | 5.2% | -24% |
The median is of the 9 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 20.6% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $99 | $90.87 · +9% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $103 | $90.87 · +14% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.