Orion Group Holdings, Inc.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Orion Group Holdings remains a hold at $9.12 (as of 12 Oct) ahead of Q3 2026 earnings on October 27, as the investment case hinges on whether the company can reverse four consecutive quarters of declining gross profit — from $29.75M in Q3 2025 to $22.93M in Q2 2026 — that drove operating losses in both H1 2026 quarters ($830K in Q1, $1.47M in Q2).
Revenue growth remains solid at 8.1% YoY in Q2 2026 and the stock trades at a P/S of 0.41 roughly in line with peer MTRX at 0.34, but a 97x P/E against FY2025 EPS of $0.06 and negative free cash flow of $10.8M offer no margin of safety. Insider cluster buying by the CEO, CFO, and General Counsel at $7.70 on September 15, 2026 signals management confidence, and the MACD histogram has turned positive, but the stock remains below both its 50-day ($9.31) and 200-day ($11.95) moving averages. Without a clear return to operating profitability in Q3, the deteriorating margin trend keeps us on the sidelines.
What could go wrong
- Margin compression continues. Gross profit has declined four straight quarters from $29.75M (Q3 2025) to $22.93M (Q2 2026), and H1 2026 produced consecutive operating losses of $830K and $1.47M.
- Valuation stretched for thin profitability. P/E of 97x against FY2025 EPS of $0.06 with negative free cash flow of $10.8M provides no cushion if earnings disappoint.
- Q2 2026 earnings miss repeats. Q2 2026 actual EPS of $0.02 missed estimates of $0.06 by 68%, raising the risk of another miss at Q3 2026 results on October 27.
- Net insider selling over 24 months. Despite recent cluster buying, net insider activity over 24 months is negative at -124,147 shares and -$1.67M in value.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Q3 2025 and Q2 2026 results · Q1–Q2 2026 results · peer comparison, 12 Oct · FY25 fundamentals. Orin's read on ORN; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 4.7% over twelve months, from $8.71 on 27 Oct 2025 to $9.12 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $17.14 on 29 Jun 2026; the last close is 46.8% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 3.6M, on 29 Jul 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All ORN filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $50.6M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $28.5M | 0.0% |
| Gendell Jeffrey L | $18.6M | 0.2% |
| Geode Capital Management | $16.4M | 0.0% |
| State Street | $13.2M | 0.0% |
| Citadel Advisors | $11.7M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $7.4M | 0.0% |
| Westerly Capital Management | $7.0M | 1.3% |
| Millennium Management | $5.5M | 0.0% |
| Northern Trust | $5.4M | 0.0% |
40 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 51 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$1.7M. Of the 50 on hand, 7 were open-market purchases and 6 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about ORN
Orin answers questions about ORN from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 97.0× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — below its usual level (158×); the typical Industrials company on the NYSE is at 33.7×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 97.0×below usual | 158× | 33.7× |
| P/S | 0.41×above usual | 0.22× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.2×above usual | 9.5× | — |
| P/B | 2.2×above usual | 1.3× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
Few analysts publish on it: 3 firms rated it in the last 18 months. Every 12-month price target on file is $15 (the low and the high are the same, so it may be a single analyst's) — 64% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. With so few, it is not a consensus; it is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$15
$15 – $15 · +64% against the last close
- 3 buy or overweight
- 0 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 97.0× its last 12 months of profit. Only 1 of the 1 companies it is compared to made a profit (MTRX 33.4×), so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORNOrion Group Holdings, Inc. | $369M | 97.0× | 13.2× | 11.8% | 0.4% | 2% |
| MTRXMatrix Service Company | $244M | 33.4× | 5.6× | 7.7% | 0.8% | 5% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 97.0× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now97.0×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Industrials companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 33.7× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now33.7×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $18 a share — 91% above the $9.23 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $18 | 91% above $9.23 |
| Levered | $7 | 24% below $9.23 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.