Orin
ORNNYSE·Engineering & Construction

Orion Group Holdings, Inc. ORN

Market cap $363.6MP/E 95.7× trailingGross margin 11.8%Reports Tue 27 Oct, after the close
$9.00
−0.03 (−0.33%)Wed close 16:00 ET
52-wk $8.08 – $17.40
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Orin's take
0.62conviction · moderate
Refreshed 24 Aug · take v4. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

Orion Group Holdings (ORN) remains a hold as the stock has slipped further to $9.10 (as of 2026-08-24) — below the July 31 insider cluster-buy prices of $9.62–$9.95 — with an RSI near 30 signaling oversold conditions but no fundamental catalyst yet confirmed for a reversal. FY2025 showed genuine progress: first net profit in five years ($2.5M), gross margin expansion to 12.4%, and total debt cut from $94.5M to $64.8M, yet the 1.4% operating margin, negative FCF of -$10.8M, and a 96.8x P/E on $0.063 diluted EPS leave no margin for execution errors.

The four-insider cluster purchase on 2026-07-31 (~$320K) is a constructive signal but too small to anchor a buy thesis; the call stays hold pending evidence that H2 2026 backlog converts into materially higher earnings and positive free cash flow.

What could go wrong

  • Margin fragility. FY2025 operating margin of just 1.4% on $852.3M revenue means even modest project cost overruns or Marine-segment delays could push the company back into operating losses, as occurred in FY2022 and FY2023.
  • Negative free cash flow. FY2025 FCF of -$10.8M driven by $38.9M capex against $28.1M operating cash flow; persistent cash burn could pressure the balance sheet despite debt reduction from $94.5M to $64.8M.
  • Valuation stretched on thin earnings. P/E of 96.8x on $0.063 diluted EPS leaves the stock vulnerable to de-rating if quarterly results disappoint; P/S of 0.41x is only modestly above the peer median of 0.36x.
  • Technical downtrend. Stock at $9.10 trades well below both the 50-day MA ($12.63) and 200-day MA ($12.12) as of 2026-08-24; a sustained break below $9 could trigger further institutional selling.

What would change my mind

Q3 2026 earnings beat with margin expansion. Q3 2026 results show operating margin above 2% and positive net income growth, confirming the FY2025 turnaround is acceleratingbullish
Free cash flow turns positive. Trailing FCF moves above zero as capex normalizes or operating cash flow scales with revenue, reducing balance-sheet riskbullish
Further Marine-segment project delays. Q3 2026 reveals additional Marine project setbacks or backlog deterioration, reversing the FY2025 margin improvementbearish
Insider selling resumption. Insiders who bought in the July 31 cluster begin selling, undermining the confidence signalbearish

Where this comes from: FMP annual fundamentals, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · FMP annual fundamentals, FY2024 and FY2025 · derived_metrics and fundamentals, fiscal year 2025 · insider transactions, Form 4 data. Orin's read on ORN; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

FormFiledWhat it saysRead
8-K21 Sepon file
8-K/A4 AugOrion Group Holdings, Inc.read
13G/A29 Julon file
10-Q29 JulOrion Group Holdings, Inc.read
8-K29 JulOrion Group Holdings, Inc.read
8-K20 MayOrion Group Holdings, Inc.read
10-Q29 AprOrion Group Holdings, Inc.read
8-K29 AprOrion Group Holdings, Inc.read

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow
FilerPositionOf fund
Vanguard Capital Management$28.5M0.0% of fund
Gendell Jeffrey L$18.6M0.2% of fund
Geode Capital Management$16.4M0.0% of fund
State Street$13.2M0.0% of fund
Citadel Advisors$11.7M0.0% of fund
Vanguard Portfolio Management$7.4M0.0% of fund

39 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 53 Form 4 filings, net −$2.7M. Of the 50 on hand, 7 were open-market purchases and 6 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

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Where it trades

· Industrials
MetricNowOwn medianSector
P/E95.7×44.5×
EV/EBITDA13.0×
P/S0.41×
P/B2.2×

What Wall Street published

13 firms · 2026-09-23
Consensus target

$15

$15$15 · +67% against today's price

How they rate it
  • 9 buy or overweight
  • 4 hold
  • 0 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E of 1 peers
CompanyMarket capP/EEV/EBITDAGrossNetROE
ORNOrion Group Holdings, Inc.$364M95.7×13.0×11.8%0.4%2%
MTRXMatrix Service Company$275M10.5×7.3%-0.3%-2%

The median is of the 1 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year
FY14 44.2×FY25 158.3×

What its sector has traded at

Industrials
FY14 173.5×FY26 32.7×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Every estimate on one scale

price $9.00
52-week range$8 – $17
Analyst targets$15 – $15
At sector P/E (45×)$4

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.