Orin
OSISNasdaq·Hardware, Equipment & Parts

OSI Systems, Inc. OSIS

Market cap $3.3BP/E 22.0× trailingGross margin 33.2%Reports Thu 29 Oct, after the close
$203.00
+2.16 (+1.08%)Wed close 16:00 ET
52-wk $186.50 – $311.72
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Orin's take
0.62conviction · moderate
Refreshed 22 Aug · take v6. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

OSI Systems delivered mixed fiscal 2026 results — Q4 EPS of $3.78 beat the $3.76 consensus but revenue missed, FY2027 sales guidance came in below Wall Street estimates, and the stock fell roughly 9.5% to $197.29 on August 21, 2026. Full-year revenue growth decelerated to 4.25% from 11.33% in FY2025, gross margin compressed to 33.21% from 34.27%, and EPS growth slowed to 2.76% from 18.02%, while total debt jumped to $1.0 billion from $682 million.

A record $1.90 billion backlog and strong free cash flow of $275.9 million support the downside case, and the 23.6x P/E trades at a roughly 23% discount to the peer median of 30.5x, but weak forward guidance and deteriorating margin trends argue for patience before adding.

What could go wrong

  • Margin compression. Gross margin declined to 33.21% in FY2026 from 34.27% in FY2025 and 34.47% in FY2024, suggesting pricing pressure or mix shift that could further erode profitability.
  • Leverage increase. Total debt rose to $1.0 billion as of June 30, 2026 from $682 million a year earlier, while stockholders' equity fell to $833 million from $951 million, increasing balance-sheet risk.
  • Weak FY2027 guidance. Management issued fiscal 2027 sales guidance below Wall Street estimates, and analysts cut forecasts after the Q4 print, signaling near-term revenue uncertainty tied to Middle East delivery delays.
  • Insider net selling. Over the trailing 24 months insiders net sold 95,297 shares for $16.4 million, with no cluster buy detected; recent acquisitions were compensation-related (code A) rather than open-market purchases.

What would change my mind

Backlog conversion. FY2027 revenue guidance is raised or quarterly bookings accelerate, confirming the $1.90B backlog converts into realized salesbullish
Margin stabilization. Gross margin re-expands above 34% for two consecutive quarters, indicating pricing power or favorable mixbullish
Guidance further cut. FY2027 revenue or EPS guidance is lowered in the next 1-2 quarterly prints, signaling Middle East delays are extending or demand is softeningbearish
Debt service strain. Interest coverage deteriorates meaningfully as debt remains above $1B without commensurate EBITDA growthbearish

Where this comes from: Zacks news article, 2026-08-20 · The Fly news article, 2026-08-21 · Benzinga news article, 2026-08-21 · Zacks news article, 2026-08-21. Orin's read on OSIS; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow
FilerPositionOf fund
Fmr$380.1M0.0% of fund
Vanguard Portfolio Management$278.2M0.0% of fund
Vanguard Capital Management$153.8M0.0% of fund
State Street$147.4M0.0% of fund
Geode Capital Management$101.4M0.0% of fund
Price T Rowe Associates /Md/$68.8M0.0% of fund

58 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 165 Form 4 filings, net −$31.1M. Of the 50 on hand, none was an open-market trade— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

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Where it trades

· Technology
MetricNowOwn medianSector
P/E22.0×53.3×
EV/EBITDA18.2×
P/S1.87×
P/B4.2×
What the price assumes

2.5%

free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.2B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.

What Wall Street published

18 firms · 2026-09-23
Consensus target

$287

$274$300 · +41% against today's price

How they rate it
  • 16 buy or overweight
  • 2 hold
  • 0 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 31.0× of 9 peers
CompanyMarket capP/EEV/EBITDAGrossNetROE
OSISOSI Systems, Inc.$3B22.0×18.2×33.2%8.7%18%
BDCBelden Inc.$4B18.3×12.0×36.5%8.5%19%
BMIBadger Meter, Inc.$4B31.0×19.0×41.3%14.3%18%
ESEESCO Technologies Inc.$7B21.9×24.9×42.0%24.4%20%
ITRIItron, Inc.$4B15.0×8.5×39.9%11.9%17%
NOVTNovanta Inc.$5B90.8×33.7×42.5%6.0%5%
PLXSPlexus Corp.$7B38.1×28.3×10.0%4.0%12%
STSensata Technologies Holding plc$6B65.9×11.0×28.5%2.4%3%
VICRVicor Corporation$13B88.8×97.1×56.6%30.6%20%
VNTVontier Corporation$4B12.9×10.4×46.6%11.3%28%

The median is of the 9 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 29.1% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year
FY15 21.5×FY26 24.4×

What its sector has traded at

Technology
FY14 9.0×FY26 48.0×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Every estimate on one scale

price $203.00
52-week range$187 – $312
Analyst targets$274 – $300
At sector P/E (53×)$492

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.