Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY
Occidental Petroleum's Q2 2026 results deliver the earnings inflection the prior hold was waiting for: $2.40 EPS beat the $1.92 consensus and marked the highest quarterly profit since 2022, driven by higher oil prices and production. With the stock at $56.04 trading above both its 50-day ($54.49) and 200-day ($50.51) moving averages, a 58% P/E discount and 67% EV/EBITDA discount to peers, and continued deleveraging from $27.1B to $24.0B in total debt year-over-year, the setup is now constructive.
CEO Richard Jackson's June open-market purchase at $52.38 reinforces insider confidence at a time when the fundamental trajectory appears to be turning.
What could go wrong
- Commodity price reversal. The Q2 beat was driven by higher oil prices; a sustained pullback in WTI would compress margins and reverse the earnings inflection.
- Elevated leverage. Total debt of $24.0B against stockholders' equity of $36.0B remains significant; further debt reduction is needed to de-risk the balance sheet.
- Annual revenue still declining. Full-year 2025 revenue of $21.6B is down from $36.3B in 2022; one strong quarter does not yet confirm a sustained annual recovery.
- Insider net selling by value. Over 24 months, insider net value was -$12.7M despite net positive share count, suggesting larger dispositions at higher prices offset smaller acquisitions.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Zacks/Reuters news articles, 2026-08-05 · peer_relative · FMP annual fundamentals · insider transactions. Orin's read on OXY; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All OXY filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Berkshire Hathaway | $12.9B | 4.3% of fund |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $2.3B | 0.0% of fund |
| State Street | $2.3B | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.9B | 0.1% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $962.8M | 0.1% of fund |
| Invesco | $619.0M | 0.0% of fund |
113 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 69 Form 4 filings, net −$12.7M. Of the 50 on hand, 1 was an open-market purchase and 0 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about OXY
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Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 8.6× | 11.7× | 51.1× |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.8× | 5.0× | — |
| P/S | 2.26× | 1.66× | — |
| P/B | 1.4× | 1.3× | — |
Its P/E sits 20th percentile of its own last 5 years (−0.76σ from its own mean).
2.7%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $4.1B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$71
$63 – $82 · +22% against today's price
- 26 buy or overweight
- 23 hold
- 3 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OXYOccidental Petroleum Corporation | $57B | 8.6× | 4.8× | 43.4% | 28.8% | 19% |
| BKRBaker Hughes Company | $58B | 18.5× | 12.2× | 23.6% | 11.2% | 16% |
| EQTEQT Corporation | $32B | 11.2× | 6.1× | 68.4% | 30.7% | 12% |
| FANGDiamondback Energy, Inc. | $52B | 36.3× | 9.0× | 44.5% | 9.3% | 4% |
| OKEONEOK, Inc. | $57B | 15.6× | 11.4× | 21.8% | 9.3% | 16% |
| TRGPTarga Resources Corp. | $61B | 26.9× | 16.8× | 36.6% | 13.5% | 72% |
The median is of the 5 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 53.3% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $106 | $58.34 · +82% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $92 | $58.34 · +58% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.