Occidental Petroleum Corporation
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Occidental Petroleum screens as a deep-value energy name with an improving setup: the stock trades at 8.75x P/E versus a peer median of 17.65x and 4.89x EV/EBITDA versus 11.17x, while Q2 2026 revenue grew 31.8% year-over-year to $8.33B with EPS of $2.75.
Total debt has declined from $27.1B (2024) to $24.0B (2025), the Berkshire chemicals divestiture supports further deleveraging, and Goldman Sachs upgraded the stock to Buy with a $69 price target. Technicals are stabilizing—MACD histogram turned positive at 0.05 and price at $58.21 is approaching the 50-day MA of $58.56—removing the deterioration that previously warranted a hold.
What could go wrong
- Oil price weakness. OXY is a US-centric E&P whose revenue and margins are highly sensitive to crude prices; a sustained drop in WTI could reverse Q2 2026's 31.8% revenue rebound.
- Elevated leverage. Total debt remains $24.0B as of FY2025 against $36.0B in equity; while declining, the balance sheet is still levered relative to peers and vulnerable to commodity downcycles.
- Quarterly volatility. Q1 2026 revenue fell 23.1% YoY and FY2025 full-year revenue declined 20.3%; earnings consistency depends on oil price stability and the timing of chemicals-sale proceeds.
- Insider signal noise. Former CEO Hollub's 90,000-share code-G gift transaction and tax-withholding sales modestly offset the net positive insider accumulation of 9,770 shares over 24 months.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Q2 2026 results · peer comparison · FY24 and FY25 fundamentals · news, 1 Oct. Orin's read on OXY; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 48.3% over twelve months, from $42.30 on 27 Oct 2025 to $62.73 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $66.24 on 30 Mar 2026; the last close is 5.3% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 39.4M, on 12 Mar 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All OXY filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Berkshire Hathaway | $12.9B | 4.3% |
| BlackRock | $2.7B | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $2.3B | 0.0% |
| State Street | $2.3B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.9B | 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $962.8M | 0.1% |
| Invesco | $619.0M | 0.0% |
| Morgan Stanley | $594.5M | 0.0% |
| AQR Capital Management | $557.3M | 0.2% |
| Bank of New York Mellon | $517.0M | 0.1% |
116 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 71 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net $445K. Of the 50 on hand, 1 was an open-market purchase and 0 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about OXY
Orin answers questions about OXY from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 9.4× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close); the typical Energy company on the NYSE is at 17.6×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 9.4× | — | 17.6× |
| P/S | 2.49×above usual | 1.86× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.2×near usual | 5.3× | — |
| P/B | 1.5×above usual | 1.3× | — |
- P/E: no usual level — it ran from 4.7× to 24.3× over its last 5 fiscal years, so a middle value says little.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $70.79 (from $60 to $82) — 13% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$70.79
$60 – $82 · +13% against the last close
- 9 buy or overweight
- 9 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 9.4× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 5 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 10.1×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OXYOccidental Petroleum Corporation | $63B | 9.4× | 5.2× | 43.4% | 28.8% | 19% |
| APAAPA Corporation | $15B | 7.0× | 2.5× | 35.7% | 22.9% | 31% |
| COPConocoPhillips | $163B | 14.2× | 5.8× | 34.7% | 17.1% | 18% |
| DVNDevon Energy Corporation | $47B | 10.1× | 6.6× | 34.0% | 16.7% | 15% |
| EOGEOG Resources, Inc. | $76B | 9.3× | 4.1× | 57.2% | 28.0% | 26% |
| FANGDiamondback Energy, Inc. | $57B | 39.9× | 9.7× | 44.5% | 9.3% | 4% |
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 9.4× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now9.4×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Energy companies on the NYSE were priced at a typical 17.6× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now17.6×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $90 a share — 43% above the $62.95 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $90 | 43% above $62.95 |
| Levered | $82 | 30% above $62.95 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.