Plains All American Pipeline, L.P.
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
Plains All American trades at a deep discount to midstream peers at 6.63x PE versus a peer median of 19.05x and 7.94x EV/EBITDA versus 12.78x, supported by FY2025 EPS of $1.66 (up from $0.73) and a robust Q2 2026 that delivered $2.51 EPS on 66% revenue growth.
However, total debt has surged to $11.30B from $7.93B in FY2024, the company just priced an additional $1.5B in junior subordinated notes, and 24-month insider net selling of 30.4M shares alongside a bearish MACD and RSI of 35 signal near-term caution. The extreme valuation compression and strong distribution coverage at 1.68x are attractive, but the aggressive leverage build and deteriorating technicals argue for patience until the balance sheet trajectory stabilizes.
What could go wrong
- Leverage escalation. Total debt rose from $7.93B (FY2024) to $11.30B (FY2025), and the September 2026 pricing of $1.5B in junior subordinated notes due 2056 at 6.8%-7.0% adds further interest burden.
- Insider selling. Over 24 months, insiders net sold 30.4M shares for net value of -$28.4M; on 14 Aug the CEO and multiple executives sold common units at $23.45, and Raymond John T disposed of 20.4M Series A Convertible Preferred Units on 14 Sep.
- Technical breakdown. As of 29 Sep, RSI-14 is 35.3 (oversold), MACD histogram is -0.22 with the line below signal, and price $23.93 has fallen below the 50-day MA of $24.68.
- Revenue volatility. FY2025 revenue declined 11.6% YoY to $44.26B, and quarterly results are lumpy — Q1 2026 EPS was just $0.14 before Q2 2026 surged to $2.51.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: peer comparison · FY25 fundamentals · Q2 2026 results · FY24 and FY25 fundamentals. Orin's read on PAA; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 56.2% over twelve months, from $16.91 on 27 Oct 2025 to $26.41 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $26.85 on 26 Oct 2026; the last close is 1.6% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 10.5M, on 20 Mar 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All PAA filings| Form | Filed | What it says | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13G/A | 7 Oct | — | on file |
| 13G/A | 5 Oct | — | on file |
| 8-K | 29 Sep | Dean Liollio was appointed Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer, effective October 2, 2026, replacing Chris Chandler who resigned. | read |
| 8-K | 14 Sep | Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. completed a public offering of $700,000,000 aggregate principal amount of 6.750% Series A Junior Subordinated Notes due 2056 and $800,000,000… | read |
| 13G/A | 10 Sep | — | on file |
| 8-K | 9 Sep | — | on file |
| 8-K | 8 Sep | — | on file |
| 10-Q | 7 Aug | Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. reported net income attributable to PAA of $1.983 billion for the six months ended June 30, 2026, a 204% increase from $653 million in the prior year period. | read |
Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Invesco | $741.9M | 0.1% |
| Blackstone | $449.3M | 1.4% |
| Mirae Asset Global ETFs Holdings | $394.2M | 0.5% |
| Goldman Sachs Group | $355.3M | 0.0% |
| Tortoise Capital Advisors | $302.8M | 3.1% |
| Morgan Stanley | $242.4M | 0.0% |
| JPMorgan Chase | $109.9M | 0.0% |
| Bank of America | $87.9M | 0.0% |
| Berkley W R | $70.9M | 3.4% |
| Infrastructure Capital Advisors | $66.7M | 3.9% |
44 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 65 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$51K. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 1 a sale — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about PAA
Orin answers questions about PAA from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 7.3× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — lower than in all 5 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 10.8×); the typical Energy company on the NASDAQ is at 15.1×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 7.3×below usual | 10.8× | 15.1× |
| P/S | 0.36×above usual | 0.22× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.5×above usual | 6.6× | — |
| P/B | 1.7×above usual | 1.0× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $27.10 (from $24 to $31) — 3% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$27.10
$24 – $31 · +3% against the last close
- 6 buy or overweight
- 7 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 7.3× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 6 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 18.7×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAAPlains All American Pipeline, L.P. | $19B | 7.3× | 8.5× | 4.5% | 5.3% | 27% |
| KMIKinder Morgan, Inc. | $75B | 20.9× | 14.0× | 56.7% | 19.6% | 11% |
| NGLNGL Energy Partners LP | $2B | lost money | 4.0× | 41.4% | −6.4% | −24% |
| OKEONEOK, Inc. | $61B | 16.5× | 11.8× | 21.8% | 9.3% | 16% |
| PAGPPlains GP Holdings LP | $6B | 10.2× | 4.9× | 5.1% | 1.1% | 40% |
| TRGPTarga Resources Corp. | $58B | 23.9× | 15.2× | 39.5% | 13.5% | 72% |
| WESWestern Midstream Partners, LP | $16B | 12.7× | 10.8× | 65.0% | 27.7% | 32% |
| WMBThe Williams Companies, Inc. | $91B | 29.4× | 15.8× | 73.6% | 25.2% | 24% |
- NGL: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 7.3× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now7.3×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Energy companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 15.1× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now15.1×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $53 a share — 102% above the $26.37 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $53 | 102% above $26.37 |
| Levered | $63 | 137% above $26.37 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.