Orin
PAANasdaq·Oil & Gas Midstream

Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. PAA

Market cap $17.2BP/E 6.8× trailingGross margin 4.5%Reports Wed 4 Nov, before the open
$24.36
−0.28 (−1.14%)live 11:20 ET
52-wk $15.69 – $26.39
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Orin's take
0.68conviction · moderate
Refreshed 26 Aug · take v4. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

Plains All American remains deeply discounted versus midstream peers at 6.84x PE versus a peer median of 20.51x and 8.12x EV/EBITDA versus 13.45x, while FY2025 EPS jumped to $1.66 from $0.73 and free cash flow reached $2.29B. Q2 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $738M with reaffirmed full-year guidance of $2.88B ± $75M confirms the earnings trajectory, and the stock's technical structure is constructive above both the 50-day MA of $23.33 and 200-day MA of $21.02.

The principal caveat is that total debt expanded to $11.30B from $7.93B and 24-month insider net selling of 9.36M shares tempers enthusiasm, but the combination of extreme valuation compression, strong FCF coverage, and improving smart-money positioning supports a buy.

What could go wrong

  • Leverage expansion. Total debt rose to $11.30B at FY2025 from $7.93B at FY2024, a significant increase that could pressure the balance sheet if commodity conditions deteriorate or if growth projects underperform.
  • Insider net selling. Over the trailing 24 months insiders net sold 9.36M shares for net value of $36.26M, including recent code F dispositions by the CEO and multiple executives at $23.45 per share.
  • Revenue decline. FY2025 revenue fell 11.61% year-over-year to $44.26B from $50.07B, and while net income grew, sustained revenue contraction could eventually pressure fee-based cash flows.
  • Valuation re-rating exhaustion. The unit price has surged approximately 39% since late 2024 per news reports, and with RSI at 60.12 the stock may be approaching near-term overbought territory, limiting upside from multiple expansion.

What would change my mind

Debt reduction or credit upgrade. PAA announces meaningful deleveraging toward prior debt levels near $8B or receives a credit rating upgradebullish
Guidance cut or EBITDA miss. Quarterly adjusted EBITDA falls below $738M or management lowers full-year 2026 guidance below $2.88B ± $75Mbearish
Insider cluster buying. Multiple insiders execute open-market purchases (code A or P) at prevailing prices, reversing the 24-month net selling trendbullish
Permian volume slowdown. Sustained crude oil prices below $80/barrel trigger reduced Permian production guidance from upstream operators, threatening PAA's volume-driven EBITDA growthbearish

Where this comes from: peer_relative composite · peer_relative composite · FMP annual fundamentals · FMP annual fundamentals. Orin's read on PAA; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow
FilerPositionOf fund
Invesco$741.9M0.1% of fund
Blackstone$449.3M1.4% of fund
Mirae Asset Global Etfs Holdings$394.2M0.5% of fund
Goldman Sachs Group$355.3M0.0% of fund
Tortoise Capital Advisors, L.L.C$302.8M3.1% of fund
Morgan Stanley$242.4M0.0% of fund

42 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 64 Form 4 filings, net −$28.4M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 1 a sale— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

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Where it trades

· Energy
MetricNowOwn medianSector
P/E6.8×—51.1×
EV/EBITDA8.1×——
P/S0.33×——
P/B1.6×——
What the price assumes

-5.8%

free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $2.3B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.

What Wall Street published

42 firms · 2026-09-24
Consensus target

$26

$24 – $30 · +8% against today's price

How they rate it
  • 24 buy or overweight
  • 17 hold
  • 1 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 19.7× of 4 peers
CompanyMarket capP/EEV/EBITDAGrossNetROE
PAAPlains All American Pipeline, L.P.$17B6.8×8.1×4.5%5.3%27%
AMAntero Midstream Corporation$10B25.3×14.1×62.9%30.4%20%
DTMDT Midstream, Inc.$13B27.1×14.6×63.2%35.7%10%
HESMHess Midstream LP$8B13.3×9.4×80.8%23.3%69%
WESWestern Midstream Partners, LP$19B14.1×12.0×66.5%29.2%34%

The median is of the 4 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 65.4% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year
FY14 21.5×FY25 10.8×

What its sector has traded at

Energy
FY14 27.3×FY26 19.8×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Every estimate on one scale

price $24.36
52-week range$16 – $26
Analyst targets$24 – $30
At sector P/E (51×)$184

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.