Plains GP Holdings LP PAGP
PAGP trades at a steep discount to midstream peers at 9.7x earnings and 4.88x EV/EBITDA versus a peer median of 11.38x, with FY2025 EPS recovering to $1.31 from $0.52 and free cash flow of $2.29B. However, total debt jumped from $7.93B to $11.49B against only $1.35B of equity, and the pending Canadian NGL divestiture to Keyera must close and visibly fund deleveraging before the value case is de-risked.
With the stock already rallying above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages to $27.16 and RSI at 66.57, much of the recovery appears priced in, while smart-money conviction remains flat at a 0.0 score with fund count declining from 35 to 32 as of the quarter ended 2026-06-30.
What could go wrong
- Leverage overhang. Total debt rose to $11.49B against $1.35B of equity at FY2025; if NGL sale proceeds are not directed to deleveraging, the balance sheet remains a structural concern.
- Revenue erosion. FY2025 revenue fell 11.6% YoY to $44.26B, continuing the volatility seen across recent years; sustained volume or commodity-price weakness could pressure fee-based cash flows.
- Technical overextension. RSI at 66.57 with the stock at $27.16 above both the 50-day MA of $25.23 and 200-day MA of $22.60 suggests near-term upside may be limited after the run-up.
- Institutional apathy. Smart-money score is 0.0 as of 2026-06-30 with fund count dropping from 35 to 32, indicating limited conviction from sophisticated investors.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: peer_relative · fundamentals FY2025 · fundamentals FY2025 · derived_metrics FY2025. Orin's read on PAGP; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All PAGP filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Brasada Capital Management | $535.3M | 0.1% of fund |
| Tortoise Capital Advisors, L.L.C | $269.8M | 2.7% of fund |
| Massachusetts Financial Services /Ma/ | $216.8M | 0.1% of fund |
| Two Sigma Investments | $174.7M | 0.1% of fund |
| Goldman Sachs Group | $159.1M | 0.0% of fund |
| Invesco | $107.4M | 0.0% of fund |
40 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 58 Form 4 filings, net $0. Of the 50 on hand, none was an open-market trade— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about PAGP
Orin answers questions about PAGP from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 9.5× | — | 51.1× |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.9× | — | — |
| P/S | 0.10× | — | — |
| P/B | 3.3× | — | — |
-25.7%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $2.3B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$27
$24 – $30 · +0% against today's price
- 18 buy or overweight
- 10 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAGPPlains GP Holdings LP | $5B | 9.5× | 4.9× | 5.1% | 1.1% | 40% |
| DKLDelek Logistics Partners, LP | $3B | 19.0× | 11.5× | 17.3% | 12.8% | -936% |
| KGSKodiak Gas Services, Inc. | $5B | 60.0× | 8.7× | 40.1% | 5.8% | 6% |
| SEISolaris Energy Infrastructure, Inc. | $4B | 68.6× | 24.4× | 40.7% | 7.2% | 8% |
The median is of the 3 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 84.1% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.