Plains GP Holdings LP
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
PAGP trades at a steep discount to midstream peers at 9.33x earnings and 4.81x EV/EBITDA versus peer medians of 58.81x and 11.32x, with Q2 2026 EPS surging to $1.97 and FY2025 free cash flow of $2.29B.
However, total debt of $11.49B against only $1.35B in equity remains a major overhang, and actual EPS has fallen short of estimates in most recent reporting periods. The stock's pullback to $26.13 with RSI at 32.78 creates a potentially attractive entry, but the NGL divestiture must close and visibly fund deleveraging before the value case is de-risked.
What could go wrong
- Leverage overhang. Total debt of $11.49B against only $1.35B in stockholders' equity as of FY2025 leaves limited margin for error on debt service or further commodity weakness.
- Earnings quality. Actual EPS has missed estimates in multiple recent periods, including an actual EPS of $0.10 versus a $0.48 estimate for the period ending 8 May and an actual of -$0.37 versus a $0.46 estimate for the period ending 7 Aug.
- Revenue erosion. FY2025 revenue declined 11.6% year-over-year to $44.26B from $50.07B, continuing the volatility seen across prior years.
- Smart-money apathy. Smart-money score is slightly negative at -0.01 with fund count declining from 35 to 32 as of the quarter ended 30 Jun.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: peer comparison · Q2 FY26 results · FY25 fundamentals · technicals, 29 Sep. Orin's read on PAGP; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 60.5% over twelve months, from $17.72 on 27 Oct 2025 to $28.44 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $28.87 on 26 Oct 2026; the last close is 1.5% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 4.0M, on 8 Apr 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All PAGP filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Tortoise Capital Advisors | $269.8M | 2.7% |
| Massachusetts Financial Services | $216.8M | 0.1% |
| Two Sigma Investments | $174.7M | 0.1% |
| Goldman Sachs Group | $159.1M | 0.0% |
| Invesco | $107.4M | 0.0% |
| Bank of America | $93.8M | 0.0% |
| Morgan Stanley | $84.7M | 0.0% |
| D. E. Shaw | $70.5M | 0.0% |
| BlackRock | $49.3M | 0.0% |
| Mirae Asset Global ETFs Holdings | $48.8M | 0.1% |
41 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 59 Form 4 filings. Of the 50 on hand, none was an open-market trade — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about PAGP
Orin answers questions about PAGP from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 10.2× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — lower than in all 5 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 15.6×); the typical Energy company on the NASDAQ is at 15.1×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 10.2×below usual | 15.6× | 15.1× |
| P/S | 0.11×above usual | 0.06× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.9×above usual | 4.2× | — |
| P/B | 3.6×above usual | 2.0× | — |
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $27.67 (from $24 to $30) — 3% below the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$27.67
$24 – $30 · −3% against the last close
- 5 buy or overweight
- 6 hold
- 1 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 10.2× its last 12 months of profit; the middle P/E of the 6 companies it is compared to that made a profit is 20.2×.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAGPPlains GP Holdings LP | $6B | 10.2× | 4.9× | 5.1% | 1.1% | 40% |
| DTMDT Midstream, Inc. | $13B | 27.9× | 14.9× | 63.2% | 35.7% | 10% |
| NGLNGL Energy Partners LP | $2B | lost money | 4.0× | 41.4% | −6.4% | −24% |
| OKEONEOK, Inc. | $61B | 16.5× | 11.8× | 21.8% | 9.3% | 16% |
| PAAPlains All American Pipeline, L.P. | $19B | 7.3× | 8.5× | 4.5% | 5.3% | 27% |
| TRGPTarga Resources Corp. | $58B | 23.9× | 15.2× | 39.5% | 13.5% | 72% |
| WESWestern Midstream Partners, LP | $16B | 12.7× | 10.8× | 65.0% | 27.7% | 32% |
| WMBThe Williams Companies, Inc. | $91B | 29.4× | 15.8× | 73.6% | 25.2% | 24% |
- NGL: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 10.2× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now10.2×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Energy companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 15.1× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now15.1×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $53 a share — 86% above the $28.43 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $53 | 86% above $28.43 |
| Levered | $282 | 891% above $28.43 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.