Paychex, Inc. PAYX
Paychex's FY2026 results show genuine fundamental improvement—revenue jumped 16.9% to $6.51B, EPS recovered to $4.89 from $4.58, and total debt was reduced from $5.02B to $4.61B while free cash flow expanded to $2.32B. However, the stock has rallied to $125.40, pushing RSI to 71.8 and trading 15.7% above the 50-day MA, leaving limited margin of safety at a 25.5x PE that is only 2.4% below the peer median despite a PS ratio 68% above peers.
With net insider selling of $167M over 24 months, a slightly negative smart money score of -0.04, and a Hold consensus from 17 analysts (4 sell ratings), the improving fundamentals are already largely reflected in the price.
What could go wrong
- Overbought technicals. RSI at 71.8 and stock 21.4% above 200-day MA ($103.31) increase probability of a mean-reversion pullback after the sharp rally from ~$115 to $125.40.
- Elevated PS multiple. PS ratio of 6.85x is 68% above the peer median of 4.08x, suggesting the market is pricing in sustained high growth that any deceleration would challenge.
- Persistent insider selling. Net insider disposition of 1.06M shares worth $167M over 24 months, with recent July 2026 sales by the CFO, Chairman, and VP of Controller, signals limited insider confidence at current levels.
- Leverage overhang. Total debt of $4.61B against stockholders' equity of $3.74B remains elevated post-Paycor acquisition, though FCF of $2.32B supports continued deleveraging.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: FMP fundamentals FY2026 vs FY2025 · FMP fundamentals FY2026 vs FY2025 · FMP fundamentals FY2026 vs FY2025 · Technicals as of 2026-08-13. Orin's read on PAYX; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-22 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All PAYX filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $2.1B | 0.0% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $1.5B | 0.1% of fund |
| State Street | $1.4B | 0.0% of fund |
| Invesco | $1.3B | 0.1% of fund |
| Charles Schwab Investment Management | $1.0B | 0.1% of fund |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.0B | 0.1% of fund |
102 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 170 Form 4 filings, net −$167.5M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 5 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about PAYX
Orin answers questions about PAYX from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 23.3× | 32.1× | 44.5× |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.6× | 21.9× | — |
| P/S | 6.26× | 8.96× | — |
| P/B | 11.0× | 12.3× | — |
Its P/E sits below all 5 of the last 5 years (−1.59σ from its own mean).
5.9%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $2.3B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$109
$103 – $115 · +2% against today's price
- 5 buy or overweight
- 19 hold
- 6 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAYXPaychex, Inc. | $41B | 23.3× | 14.6× | 74.3% | 27.0% | 45% |
| AMEAMETEK, Inc. | $54B | 34.1× | 22.9× | 36.6% | 20.0% | 15% |
| DALDelta Air Lines, Inc. | $52B | 13.0× | 8.0× | 27.3% | 5.8% | 19% |
| GWWW.W. Grainger, Inc. | $62B | 33.5× | 21.7× | 39.4% | 9.9% | 49% |
| OTISOtis Worldwide Corporation | $27B | 18.3× | 14.6× | 30.2% | 10.2% | -27% |
| ROKRockwell Automation, Inc. | $48B | 40.1× | 28.6× | 54.5% | 13.4% | 33% |
| ROPRoper Technologies, Inc. | $43B | 17.5× | 11.9× | 69.5% | 30.2% | 13% |
The median is of the 6 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 9.8% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $132 | $101.55 · +30% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $144 | $101.55 · +42% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.