PACCAR Inc PCAR
PACCAR is showing early signs of cyclical bottoming — Q2 2026 revenue of $7.55B posted the first positive YoY growth (+0.48%) after multiple quarters of double-digit declines, and EPS of $1.43 beat consensus by 5.1% — but the stock has broken down hard, closing at $112.09 on September 23, 2026, below both the 50-day ($126.95) and 200-day ($120.78) moving averages with an RSI of 20.95 signaling extreme oversold conditions. Valuation is mixed: the P/E of 23.55x sits 11.8% below the peer median of 26.70x and P/S of 2.16x is 32% below median, yet EV/EBITDA of 19.14x trades 22.7% above the peer median of 15.60x, reflecting elevated leverage relative to earnings power at trough.
With smart money at -0.0079 as of Q2 2026 and no meaningful open-market insider buying, the recovery thesis needs more confirmation before committing capital.
What could go wrong
- Cyclical recovery stalls. Q1 2026 revenue was still down 16.2% YoY; Q2's +0.48% YoY is barely positive and could reverse if freight demand weakens further, extending the trough that already saw FY2025 EPS fall 42.9% from 2023.
- Margin compression persists. FY2025 gross margin of 16.23% and operating margin of 10.41% are well below FY2023 levels of 21.72% and 16.93% respectively; if pricing pressure continues, earnings recovery will lag revenue.
- Technical breakdown deepens. Stock is trading below both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages with a negative MACD histogram of -0.98; sustained selling could push shares toward the low $100s before finding a floor.
- EV/EBITDA premium unwinds. At 19.14x EV/EBITDA versus a peer median of 15.60x, the market is pricing in recovery that may not materialize on the expected timeline, leaving downside if estimates get cut.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: quarterly_results Q2 2026; earnings_surprises · fundamentals FY2025; derived_metrics FY2025 · technicals as of 2026-09-23 · peer_relative. Orin's read on PCAR; not advice.
Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-24 · actual filings
50-day average 200-day average · volume below
On file
All PCAR filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Capital Management | $4.1B | 0.1% of fund |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $3.0B | 0.1% of fund |
| State Street | $2.8B | 0.1% of fund |
| Invesco | $2.1B | 0.2% of fund |
| Wellington Management Group Llp | $2.0B | 0.4% of fund |
| Fmr | $1.8B | 0.1% of fund |
89 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 361 Form 4 filings, net $11.9M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 4 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about PCAR
Orin answers questions about PCAR from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →Where it trades
| Metric | Now | Own median | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 23.3× | 13.1× | 44.5× |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.9× | 10.9× | — |
| P/S | 2.14× | 1.46× | — |
| P/B | 2.9× | 3.0× | — |
Its P/E sits 80th percentile of its own last 5 years (+1.64σ from its own mean).
7.2%
free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $3.0B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.
What Wall Street published
$136
$125 – $150 · +22% against today's price
- 15 buy or overweight
- 27 hold
- 3 underweight or sell
The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.
Against the companies it is compared to
| Company | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross | Net | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PCARPACCAR Inc | $58B | 23.3× | 18.9× | 14.9% | 9.2% | 13% |
| AMEAMETEK, Inc. | $57B | 36.1× | 24.2× | 36.6% | 20.0% | 15% |
| CARRCarrier Global Corporation | $45B | 37.8× | 20.5× | 24.3% | 5.5% | 9% |
| CMICummins Inc. | $72B | 26.5× | 15.5× | 25.3% | 7.8% | 22% |
| GWWW.W. Grainger, Inc. | $60B | 32.6× | 21.2× | 39.4% | 9.9% | 49% |
| LHXL3Harris Technologies, Inc. | $44B | 23.9× | 14.5× | 25.5% | 8.2% | 9% |
| ROPRoper Technologies, Inc. | $37B | 15.1× | 10.6× | 69.5% | 30.2% | 13% |
| URIUnited Rentals, Inc. | $64B | 24.6× | 11.7× | 37.1% | 15.7% | 29% |
The median is of the 7 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 12.3% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.
What it has traded at
What its sector has traded at
Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.
Discounted cash flow
| Model | Fair value | Against | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard DCF | $44 | $115.56 · −62% | 2026-06-10 |
| Levered DCF | $85 | $115.56 · −26% | 2026-06-10 |
The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.
Every estimate on one scale
The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.