PACCAR Inc
Orin's own judgment of how firmly the evidence points one way — not the chance the price goes up.
PACCAR is showing tentative signs of cyclical stabilization — Q2 2026 revenue of $7.55B posted the first positive YoY growth (+0.48%) after consecutive quarters of double-digit declines, and EPS of $1.43 beat consensus by 5.1% — but the stock remains in a downtrend at $109.66, trading below both the 50-day ($122.62) and 200-day ($120.69) moving averages with an RSI of 31.9.
Valuation is mixed: P/E of 22.45x sits 14.7% below the peer median of 26.33x and P/S of 2.06x is 34.8% below median, yet EV/EBITDA of 18.36x trades 19.3% above the peer median of 15.40x, reflecting the drag from $15.6B in total debt against compressed trough earnings. With smart money at -0.01 as of Q2 2026 and net insider selling of 266,707 shares over 24 months, the recovery thesis needs more than one quarter of stabilization before committing capital.
What could go wrong
- Cyclical relapse. Q2 2026's +0.48% YoY revenue growth is marginal; a return to declining deliveries in Q3 or Q4 2026 would invalidate the bottoming thesis.
- Margin compression persistence. FY2025 operating margin fell to 10.4% from 14.5% in FY2024 and gross margin to 16.2% from 19.9%; if margins fail to recover with volume, earnings power remains impaired.
- Elevated leverage at trough. Total debt of $15.6B against stockholders' equity of $19.3B drives EV/EBITDA to 18.36x, 19.3% above peer median, limiting downside protection in a prolonged downturn.
- Rising rates pressure. Recent news highlights industrials selling off with long yields at two-decade highs; PACCAR's Financial Services segment and dealer financing exposure amplifies rate sensitivity.
What would change my mind
Where this comes from: Q2 2026 results and earnings vs estimates · FY25 fundamentals · technicals, 8 Oct · peer comparison. Orin's read on PCAR; not advice.
How has the share price moved?
Up 2.6% over twelve months, from $101.08 on 27 Oct 2025 to $103.73 at the Tue 27 Oct 2026 close. Its highest close in that time was $138.21 on 28 Jul 2026; the last close is 24.9% below it.
- Green line: the closing price each trading day.
- Grey line: the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
- Dashed amber line: the same over the last 200 trading days — a slower, smoother line.
- Bars along the bottom: shares traded each day — green when it closed higher than the day before, rose when lower (the most, 10.7M, on 18 Sep 2026).
- Flags: the company's filings, on the day they were made (a 10-Q is the quarterly report and a 10-K the annual report; an 8-K reports a major event).
On file
All PCAR filingsLargest holders · 13F Q2 2026
Money flow| Filer | Position | Of fund |
|---|---|---|
| BlackRock | $4.9B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Capital Management | $4.1B | 0.1% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management | $3.0B | 0.1% |
| State Street | $2.8B | 0.1% |
| Invesco | $2.1B | 0.2% |
| Wellington Management Group | $2.0B | 0.4% |
| FMR | $1.8B | 0.1% |
| Geode Capital Management | $1.6B | 0.1% |
| Bank of America | $1.1B | 0.1% |
| Massachusetts Financial Services | $1.0B | 0.3% |
92 of the 815 filers we track · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows
Insiders, last 24 months: 365 Form 4 filings; open-market trades net −$33.0M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 4 sales — the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.
Ask Orin about PCAR
Orin answers questions about PCAR from its filings, transcripts and numbers — with the source behind every claim. Your own desk starts with 3 free days, card required.
Start 3 free days →How is it priced, against its own past and its sector?
Priced at 19.8× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close) — higher than in 4 of its last 5 fiscal years (middle 13.1×); the typical Industrials company on the NASDAQ is at 18.4×.
| Measure | Now | Its usual | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E | 19.8×above usual | 13.1× | 18.4× |
| P/S | 1.95×above usual | 1.46× | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.9×above usual | 10.0× | — |
| P/B | below zero | 3.0× | — |
- P/B: below zero — it owes more than it owns on its books.
- "Its usual" is the middle of its own last 5 fiscal years.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
P/S: the company's total market value divided by one year of revenue. Used when there is no profit to measure.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
P/B: the share price divided by the book value per share — what the company owns minus what it owes, as its accounts record it. When book value is tiny, P/B swings wildly and says little.
What do the analysts who cover it publish?
The analysts' average 12-month price target is $135 (from $122 to $150) — 30% above the Tue 27 Oct close price. That is their published opinion, not Orin's.
$135
$122 – $150 · +30% against the last close
- 3 buy or overweight
- 7 hold
- 0 underweight or sell
Price target: the share price an analyst publishes for about 12 months ahead. It is the opinion of the firm that wrote it; the average is across the firms that cover the company.
Overweight / underweight: analysts' rating words: overweight means the firm expects the stock to do better than the others it covers, underweight worse. Their words, not Orin's.
How is it priced next to the companies it is compared to?
Priced at 19.8× its last 12 months of profit. Only 2 of the 3 companies it is compared to made a profit (GM 18.2×, OSK 15.3×), so there is no typical P/E.
| Company | Market value | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Gross margin | Net margin | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PCARPACCAR Inc | $55B | 19.8× | 14.9× | 14.4% | 9.9% | n/m |
| FFord Motor Company | $47B | lost money | — | 10.8% | −3.9% | −19% |
| GMGeneral Motors Company | $68B | 18.2× | 11.6× | 9.0% | 2.1% | 6% |
| OSKOshkosh Corp | $8B | 15.3× | 8.5× | 15.9% | 5.2% | 12% |
- F: lost money over the last 12 months, so no P/E.
- PCAR: return on equity is not meaningful (n/m) — book value is below zero.
- PCAR: dividend yield marked one-off — most of the last 12 months' payouts were special or irregular, so the yield is not income that repeats.
- The list of companies is the data vendor's choice, so it can include a company a person would not have picked.
Market value: the share price times the number of shares — what the whole company is priced at.
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
EV/EBITDA: the price of the whole company (its shares plus its debt, minus its cash) divided by one year of operating profit before interest, tax and write-downs.
Gross margin: the share of each $1 of sales left after the direct cost of making what was sold.
Net margin: the share of each $1 of sales kept as profit after every cost. Below zero, the company lost money.
ROE: return on equity: one year of profit as a share of the shareholders' money in the business (its book value).
Is it priced high or low compared with its own past?
Priced at 19.8× its last 12 months of profit (Tue 27 Oct close). It has no full fiscal year on file since its history starts, so there is nothing of its own to compare with.
- Now19.8×
P/E: the share price divided by one year of profit per share — roughly how many years of today's profit the price pays for. A company that loses money has no P/E.
Fiscal year (FY): the company's own 12-month accounting year, which need not match the calendar year.
How has its sector been priced?
Industrials companies on the NASDAQ were priced at a typical 18.4× their yearly profit (Tue 27 Oct close).
- Now18.4×
- Each year is the middle of that calendar year's daily sector P/E; "Now" is the Tue 27 Oct close figure, the same one in the table above.
Sector P/E: the middle P/E of the companies in the same sector on the same stock exchange, as the data vendor works it out each day.
What does a cash-flow model say a share is worth?
A standard cash-flow model puts it at $43 a share — 58% below the $101.54 price it was computed against (27 Oct).
| Model | Value a share | Against the price then |
|---|---|---|
| Standard | $43 | 58% below $101.54 |
| Levered | $58 | 43% below $101.54 |
Discounted cash flow: a model's estimate of what the company is worth today, from the cash it is forecast to make in future years. Small changes in the forecast move it a lot, and it says little about a company that loses money.
Standard / levered: two versions of the cash-flow model: the standard one counts the cash before the company pays its lenders, the levered one after.