Orin
PEGNYSE·Regulated Electric

Public Service Enterprise Group Incorporated PEG

Market cap $33.6BP/E 16.7× trailingGross margin 85.4%Reports Mon 2 Nov, before the open
$67.36
+0.05 (+0.07%)live 09:40 ET
52-wk $67.13 – $87.63
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Orin's take
0.58conviction · moderate
Refreshed 19 Aug · take v7. A new filing or a print queues the next refresh.

PEG is a buy after Q2 2026 earnings beat estimates ($0.86 vs $0.80 consensus) and management reaffirmed full-year 2026 operating earnings guidance, delivering the catalyst the prior hold thesis was waiting for. The stock trades at an 11.3% P/E discount to the peer median (18.6x vs 21.0x) despite FY2025 revenue growth of 18.25% and EPS recovering to $4.21, while a $22.5–25.5B regulated capex plan underpins 6–8% operating earnings growth and nuclear assets offer data center demand optionality.

Technicals remain weak with shares at $75.33 below both the 50-day ($78.87) and 200-day ($80.47) moving averages, but RSI at 37.37 signals near-term oversold conditions that, combined with the fundamental improvement and positive Q2 catalyst, create an attractive entry point.

What could go wrong

  • High leverage. Total debt of $24.37B against $16.98B equity at FY2025 year-end, and higher interest costs already weighed on the power-generation business per Q2 2026 Reuters coverage.
  • Thin free cash flow. FY2025 FCF of $325M on $12.17B revenue (2.67% FCF margin) leaves limited margin for error if capex escalates or rate base conversion lags.
  • Technical downtrend. Stock at $75.33 is below both the 50-day ($78.87) and 200-day ($80.47) moving averages, indicating persistent bearish momentum despite the earnings beat.
  • Declining smart money conviction. Smart money score has fallen from 0.0292 in mid-2025 to 0.0137 as of 2026-06-30, and insider selling has been systematic with the CEO selling 2,083 shares monthly.

What would change my mind

Rate case approval. Regulatory approval of rate base investments that converts capex into allowed returns, supporting the 6–8% operating earnings growth outlookbullish
Nuclear/data center contract. Announcement of a concrete data center power purchase agreement leveraging PEG's nuclear fleetbullish
Technical breakdown. Stock closes below $72 on heavy volume, confirming the downtrend and invalidating the oversold bounce thesisbearish

Where this comes from: Zacks news article, 2026-08-04 · MarketBeat news article, 2026-08-05 · peer_relative · derived_metrics and fundamentals FY2025. Orin's read on PEG; not advice.

Twelve months actual closes to 2026-09-23 · actual filings

Sept 25Nov 25Jan 26Mar 26May 26Jul 26

50-day average 200-day average · volume below

Largest holders · 13F Q2 2026

Money flow
FilerPositionOf fund
Vanguard Capital Management$2.6B0.1% of fund
Vanguard Portfolio Management$2.5B0.1% of fund
State Street$2.4B0.1% of fund
Bank Of America /De/$1.2B0.1% of fund
Geode Capital Management$1.1B0.1% of fund
Capital Research Global Investors$870.0M0.1% of fund

100 filers · quarter ended Q2 2026 · positions, not flows

Insiders, last 24 months: 92 Form 4 filings, net $9.2M. Of the 50 on hand, 0 were open-market purchases and 10 sales— the rest are grants, option exercises and tax withholding.

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Where it trades

vs its own 5y · Utilities
MetricNowOwn medianSector
P/E16.7×25.9×
EV/EBITDA13.3×16.1×
P/S2.67×3.29×
P/B1.9×2.3×

Its P/E sits 40th percentile of its own last 5 years (+0.34σ from its own mean).

What the price assumes

30.4%

free-cash-flow growth every year for 10 years, discounted at 10%, is what today’s price implies — starting from $0.3B of trailing free cash flow. It is an assumption the market is making, not a forecast Orin is making.

What Wall Street published

33 firms · 2026-09-23
Consensus target

$83

$78$88 · +23% against today's price

How they rate it
  • 16 buy or overweight
  • 16 hold
  • 1 underweight or sell

The analysts’ consensus and their own ratings, not Orin’s. A target is a twelve-month opinion published by the firm that wrote it.

Against the companies it is compared to

median P/E 19.3× of 9 peers
CompanyMarket capP/EEV/EBITDAGrossNetROE
PEGPublic Service Enterprise Group Incorporated$34B16.7×13.3×85.4%16.0%12%
AEEAmeren Corporation$28B17.4×11.8×41.1%17.9%12%
DDominion Energy, Inc.$54B21.2×14.5×49.3%13.9%9%
DTEDTE Energy Company$26B19.3×12.5×36.7%8.1%11%
EDConsolidated Edison, Inc.$38B16.8×9.9×76.0%12.5%9%
ETREntergy Corporation$46B25.1×13.8×38.9%13.5%10%
EXCExelon Corporation$42B14.9×10.3×24.5%11.0%10%
PCGPG&E Corporation$33B9.0×9.2×56.2%12.3%10%
WECWEC Energy Group, Inc.$33B19.5×13.6×62.0%16.7%12%
XELXcel Energy Inc.$44B19.3×12.6×48.8%15.3%10%

The median is of the 9 peers listed above and nothing else — check it against the column. This company trades 13.5% below it. The peer set is the vendor’s, so a company can appear here that a person would not have chosen.

What it has traded at

P/E by fiscal year
FY14 13.8×FY25 19.0×

What its sector has traded at

Utilities
FY14 14.0×FY26 27.4×

Two scales, drawn separately on purpose: a sector median and one company’s multiple are not the same number and putting them on one axis invites a comparison neither series supports.

Discounted cash flow

not recomputed since
ModelFair valueAgainstComputed
Standard DCF$-36$78.62 · −146%2026-06-10
Levered DCF$-129$78.62 · −264%2026-06-10

The vendor’s intrinsic-value models. Treat them as a low-growth anchor — for a fast grower the market routinely pays well above a DCF. These were computed against the price in the “against” column, not today’s.

Every estimate on one scale

price $67.36
52-week range$67 – $88
Analyst targets$78 – $88
Standard DCF$-36 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $78.62
Levered DCF$-129 as of 2026-06-10, when it was $78.62
At own 5y-median P/E (19×)$77
At 5y P/E range (-52–30×)$-210 – $120
At sector P/E (26×)$105

The vertical rule is the current price. Ranges and point estimates are the backend’s, published as they were calculated; an arrow means the estimate sits beyond this scale, and its number is on the right.